Sixers 2016-17 Win Total Forecast

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

.@JoelEmbiid, man of the people. #BlueWeek pic.twitter.com/0oSiDyw4CH

— Philadelphia 76ers (@Sixers) October 20, 2016

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

It’s been a one step forward, one step back kind of offseason for the Philadelphia 76ers. After years of waiting, Joel Embiid was finally cleared to take the court, only for Ben Simmons to suffer a Jones fracture requiring surgery in his right foot. Then, the same day Jahlil Okafor returns to the court, the team announces that Nerlens Noel will require surgery on his knee.

So what is one supposed to make of this Sixers team with all this injury uncertainty? Prior to the Ben Simmons injury, the Nevada desert dwellers set Philadelphia’s win total at 27.5. Now, the line has adjusted to 24.5, still a big jump up from last year’s 10 wins. All praise to Embiid.

As I do every year, I’ll be offering a prediction on whether the Sixers will fall over or under their wins total. Again, my methodology involves grouping each game by a combination of the opponent, the amount of rest for each team coming into the game, and where the game is being played.

One note: the playoff line is very thin, especially in the Eastern Conference, so I fully realize teams like Chicago and Miami could make it to the postseason. It’s a broad look at the league; it doesn’t need to be perfect. As the Black Eyed Peas would say, let’s get it started.

Home, both teams rested, facing a likely playoff team

Wed, Oct 26 vs Oklahoma City; Sat, Oct 29 vs Atlanta; Sat, Nov 5 vs Cleveland

Fri, Nov 11 vs Indiana; Wed, Nov 16 vs Washington; Sun, Nov 27 vs Cleveland

Wed, Dec 14 vs Toronto;  Wed, Jan 11 vs NY Knicks; Fri, Jan 13 vs Charlotte

Fri, Jan 20 vs Portland; Fri, Jan 27 vs Houston; Wed, Feb 8 vs San Antonio

Fri, Feb 24 vs Washington; Mon, Feb 27 vs Golden State; Fri, Mar 3 vs NY Knicks

Fri, Mar 17 vs Dallas; Sun, Mar 19 vs Boston; Mon, Apr 10 vs Indiana

All things being average, NBA teams should win around 60% of their home games. However, things aren’t average when you have a Sixers team projected to finish in the bottom-5 facing teams heading for action in late April. We’ll give them 5 wins here out of 18, with likely a few coming against teams that could miss the playoffs if things don’t break right like the Hawks, Knicks, and Mavericks.

Running total: 5-13

Home, both teams rested, facing a likely lottery team

Tue, Nov 1 vs Orlando; Mon, Nov 21 vs Miami; Wed, Nov 23 vs Memphis

Fri, Nov 25 vs Chicago; Wed, Nov 30 vs Sacramento; Mon, Dec 5 vs Denver

Fri, Dec 16 vs LA Lakers; Sun, Dec 18 vs Brooklyn; Tue, Dec 20 vs New Orleans

Tue, Jan 3 vs Minnesota; Mon, Mar 6 vs Milwaukee; Tue, Apr 4 vs Brooklyn

Thu, Apr 6 vs Chicago; Sat, Apr 8 vs Milwaukee;

Now we’re talking! These are games the Sixers have a real fighting chance when they step on the court. 6-8 feels about right for this set, with the Lakers and Nets contests looking especially tasty.

Running total: 11-21

Home, both teams on a back-to-back

Sat, Dec 3 vs Boston; Wed, Mar 29 vs Atlanta

In both of these matchups, the opponent is traveling from a home game to Philadelphia. With both Boston and Atlanta being in the same time zone, these aren’t the most difficult back-to-backs. Still, let’s give the Sixers one of these wins, perhaps the Hawks game if Atlanta gets off to a rough start and deals Millsap at the trade deadline.

Running Total: 12-22

Home, Sixers on a back-to-back

Sat, Mar 4 vs Detroit

The Pistons are a sure-fire playoff team and by early March, Reggie Jackson should have been back for a while and 100% healthy. On a back-to-back, tough spot for the Sixers.

Running total: 12-23

Home, opponent on a back-to-back

Mon, Nov 7 vs Utah; Sat, Nov 19 vs Phoenix; Fri, Dec 2 vs Orlando

Wed, Jan 18 vs Toronto; Tue, Jan 24 vs LA Clippers; Sat, Feb 11 vs Miami

Here are games where all the intangible are working in Philadelphia’s favor. Maybe this will be the year the Clippers don’t absolutely annihilate the Sixers at the Wells Fargo Center? Regardless, Phoenix, Orlando, and Miami are all winnable games. 3 wins in this group.

Running total: 15-26

Away, both teams rested, facing a likely playoff team

Wed, Nov 9 @ Indiana; Mon, Nov 14 @ Houston; Sun, Dec 11 @ Detroit

Thu, Dec 29 @ Utah; Fri, Jan 6 @ Boston; Wed, Feb 1 @ Dallas

Mon, Feb 6 @ Detroit; Mon, Feb 13 @Charlotte; Wed, Feb 15 @ Boston;

Thu, Mar 9 @ Portland; Sat, Mar 11 @ LA Clippers; Tue, Mar 14 @ Golden State

Wed, Mar 22 @ Oklahoma City; Sun, Mar 26 @ Indiana; Sun, Apr 2 @ Toronto

Wed, Apr 12 @ NY Knicks

There are not a lot of spots here where you really feel good about the Sixers coming away with a win. Possibly, they could steal one from the Pacers or Knicks, and win in Houston or Dallas. 3-13 in this grouping.

Running total: 18-39

Away, both teams rested, facing a likely lottery team

Thu, Dec 8 @ New Orleans; Fri, Dec 23 @ Phoenix; Mon, Dec 26 @ Sacramento

Sun, Jan 8 @ Brooklyn; Sun, Jan 29 @ Chicago; Sat, Feb 4 @ Miami

Wed, Mar 1 @ Miami; Fri, Mar 24 @ Chicago; Tue, Mar 28 @ Brooklyn

Better luck for Philadelphia against these fellow cellar-dwellers and teams fighting for an 8-seed. Another win against Brooklyn, and some potential victories over the likes of the Suns, Kings, and Heat. Add another 3 wins and 6 losses to the total.

Running total: 21-45

Away, both teams on a back-to-back

Tue, Dec 6 @ Memphis; Sat, Jan 21 @ Atlanta

The Sixers are traveling from Denver to Memphis, and then, Philadelphia to Atlanta. The Grizzlies go from New Orleans back home, while the Hawks have a home/home back-to-back. Both these teams are good enough that they should put away the Sixers at home.

Running total: 21-47

Away, Sixers on a back-to-back

Wed, Nov 2 @ Charlotte; Sat, Nov 12 @ Atlanta; Thu, Nov 17 @ Minnesota

Mon, Nov 28 @ Toronto; Fri, Dec 30 @ Denver; Sat, Jan 14 @ Washington

Wed, Jan 25 @ Milwaukee; Thu, Feb 2 @ San Antonio; Thu, Feb 9 @ Orlando

Sat, Feb 25 @ NY Knicks; Sun, Mar 12 @ LA Lakers; Mon, Mar 20 @ Orlando

By and large, this is actually a very easy set of opponents, with Toronto and San Antonio the only two stone-cold locks to make the playoffs. Still, a road game against a better-rested opponent is a tough task regardless of who you are facing. 2-10 from this category.

Running total: 23-57

Away, opponent on a back-to-back

Mon, Jan 16 @ Milwaukee; Fri, Mar 31 @ Cleveland

The Sixers could potentially grab a road win with the rest advantage over Milwaukee, but there’s no way I’m predicting them to upset LeBron and the defending champions, rest or not.

Running total: 24-57

There you have it. By the slimmest of margins, I am taking the under for Philadelphia for the first time in the four years of doing this exercise. Even though the Sixers should be in the top half of the lottery once again, fans should still get to see more wins than years past, and much more exciting play behind the three promising rookies: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Dario Saric. Let’s get this season started!