Now that the NBA season is over, it is officially draft season for Sixers fans. The team has the best odds for the number one pick. They also have two picks in the later portion of the first round from Miami and Oklahoma City. Lastly, they have a 44% chance at collecting a top 5 pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. For the purpose of this big board, there will be 10 prospects as opposed to the 5 in the last version. Once again, this is a Sixers specific big board. That means that fit, contract situation (for international prospects), and general direction of the team will be taken into account with these rankings. Still, in the NBA talent and ability wins out so that will be the primary criterion for this big board. Now, let’s get started with the second edition of the Sixers big board.
1. Brandon Ingram (SF, Duke)
Ingram wasn’t the number one prospect on my last board, but he has been my top prospect for a little while now. He just has so many tools. He’s tall, athletic and skilled. While the comparisons to Kevin Durant are ridiculous (Ingram isn’t that level of scorer or athlete), Ingram is still an elite prospect. I would put him above guys like Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker as prospects. I think he has more skills than those guys did coming out of college and projects as a better player.
Ingram can really shoot it. He has the ability to create off the dribble and is an underrated passer. He isn’t a great athlete but he is a really good one. He may not be a lockdown defender but he’s solid on the perimeter and has a surprisingly high block rate from the wing. Ingram is the kind of prospect that does not have any glaring holes. He is really good at most things and great at a few things. He would slide onto the wing really well for this Sixers team. He could play well with any of the Sixers multitude of big men. I think it’s close between Ingram and Simmons, but if I am the Sixers and I have the number one pick, I am selecting Ingram.
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2. Ben Simmons (PF, LSU)
Some of the shine has come off of Simmons as a prospect. He hasn’t shown any ability as an outside shooter and character became a concern as his LSU team collapsed at the end of the season. There were some games where Simmons just didn’t compete and his defense was particularly atrocious despite decent tools on that end of the court. Simmons’ outside shooting could really disrupt the spacing and geometry of an NBA offense. This is of particular concern to the Sixers who already have no spacing and a glut of big men.
Still, Simmons is still a very good prospect. No one in this draft has the natural feel for the game and passing ability of Ben Simmons. Philadelphians may be familiar with the work of Saint Joe’s Deandre Bembry. Simmons is an incredibly rich man’s Bembry. He is incredible in transition and can effectively run a pick and roll. Pairing him with a good point guard and shooters will lead to an incredible offense with Simmons functioning as a secondary ballhandler and creator.
Despite all these positives, I think the Sixers should have some concerns with Simmons in regard to fit. I almost always espouse the idea of best player available over fit or need but Simmons would be a tough sell. He can’t play with Okafor. That would be the worst defensive frontcourt in recent memory. The team’s spacing with Simmons and Noel would be pretty bad. The only one of the Sixers big men who could effectively coexist with Simmons is Joel Embiid, who hasn’t played a game in two years. Simmons will be a really good player but it would require a complete reshuffling of the deck to draft the forward out of LSU.
3. Dragan Bender (PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv)
Bender is one of my favorite prospects in recent memory. He is an incredibly versatile young big man. His greatest impact will be on defense. Bender has amazing lateral quickness for someone his size and the footwork to properly utilize that speed. Bender has the ability to switch out on ballhandlers in the pick and roll or recover quickly back to the rim. Bender also has the vertical explosiveness and size to be an elite rim protector once he fills out.
On offense, Bender is no slouch either. He has good feel and passing ability for a big man. He can also shoot from the outside and has the ability to post up smaller players. Bender is a monster filling the lane in transition and attacks the offensive glass well with his explosiveness and length. Bender will never be a first option on offense, but he can be an integral part of a really great offense. Teams can develop him further in these areas and incorporate him into the offense in a variety of ways.
The biggest question with Bender is his contracts status. He signed a long term contract with Maccabi last year and the buyout dates are unknown. It could be a multi-year wait for Bender. It would be tough for the fans to wait for another high draft pick and if Bender waits too long to come over, Philadelphia loses the ability to sign him to cheap rookie scale contract. On a positive note, reports began to surface about a month ago that Bender’s contract may not be as cumbersome as advertised in terms of buyouts. If Philadelphia knows that they can get Bender to come over this year or next, he would be worth a top 2 or 3 pick. If Bender’s contract is a difficult one, then the Sixers could possibly draft and stash the Croatian with the Lakers pick.
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4. Timothe Luwawu (SG, Mega Leks)
I am relatively certain that few have seen the 20 year old French swingman play for his club in Serbia, but I promise that there is a lot to like with Luwawu. I will admit that I am more bullish on Luwawu than most. He is a very similar prospect to Mario Hezonja, the talented guard who went to the Magic with the fifth pick in last year’s draft. The Frenchman, like Hezonja, has a really good chance to be a two way wing. The 6’ 7” shooting guard has great length and athleticism. On the defensive end, he has shown the ability to guard both point guard and wings alike. He uses his athleticism and length to pester ballhandlers and force turnovers. On offense, Luwawu is an improving shooter, knocking down 37% of his threes with pretty solid mechanics. Luwawu also is a pretty good passer who has excelled in a wide open, fast paced offense due to his athleticism.
Luwawu’s biggest concern is his ballhandling ability. He struggles to create his own shot in one-on-one situations. Also, despite physical tools, Luwawu is just an average finisher around the basket. Lastly, Luwawu has shown improvement as a jumpshooter but it has only been one year so it is a bit of a risk to rely on that continue. Maybe this year is just an outlier. Still, despite the fact that he will never be a number one option, Luwawu will have the chance to develop into a key two way starter and piece on really good teams. If the Laker pick fell to 5 or Luwawu fell in the draft, I could see the Sixers using a pick on the talented French wing.
5. Jamal Murray (SG, Kentucky)
Murray was a guy who many had pegged to the Sixers as a possible point guard of the future before this season. However, I think that Murray’s lone college season showed that he is not a point guard at the professional level. Murray struggles to break down defenses off the dribble despite his craftiness. This is because Murray just is not a great athlete or overly strong. He also cannot play point guard because he has no chance to guard opposing team’s point guards. Murray just does not have the lateral quickness or athletic fluidity to check point guards.
Still, Murray is not a bad prospect by any means. I think Murray is actually a quite good prospect. I just think that his future is as an off-ball guard as opposed to a lead guard. While Murray cannot create or initiate the offense, he sure can shoot. Murray is one of the best shooters in this draft and could help an NBA offense with its spacing. He can shoot from a standstill position or coming off of screens. Murray also may have a future as a secondary ballhandler for NBA teams. Despite not being an elite driver, he has some ability and maybe can develop more as he ages. I don’t think he can make the leap to a great creator, but I do think he can become a solid secondary creator who spends some time as the lead ballhandler. I also think Murray projects as a better defend of shooting guards (who tend to be bigger but not as quick or adept with the ball as point guards) due to his good size at 6’ 5”. Murray certainly wasn’t great this year but he improved when he played off-ball and as one of the youngest players in the draft, he has the chance to develop into something special at the next level as an off-ball guard.
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6. Jaylen Brown (SF, Cal)
Jaylen Brown is possibly the most divisive player in this draft. He has all the tools you could want from a wing prospect. He is an elite athlete and already has an NBA body. Brown also has great height and length for a player at his position. Combine all of those tools with any semblance of basketball playing ability, and you have an all-star caliber player. The problem with Brown is that he really doesn’t have any basketball skill or ability. That may seem harsh but he really struggles in a lot of areas. First of all, he has a broken jump shot. Brown isn’t an effective shooter off the catch or off the dribble. He also doesn’t have any real handle to create for himself or others. That loose handle, combined with subpar passing ability and feel for the game led to Brown having more turnovers than assists his freshman year.
These are all really serious concerns with Brown and I have recently soured on him as a prospect a little. Still though, he is a high prospect for a reason. His tools really are incredibly tantalizing for NBA teams. If a team thinks they can unlock his potential, I would not be surprised to see them pull the trigger early in the draft. Brown may benefit from the increased spacing of NBA offenses and playing with better teammates than he did at Cal. Maybe that space will allow Brown to be more effective with the ball. If he can develop into a good shooter, he will be a solid off ball player. If he can develop his handle, he could become a solid slasher from the wing. If he puts both together, he’s an all-star player. But, despite all the tools in the world, Brown would be a huge risk for the Sixers or any other team.
7. Kris Dunn (PG, Providence)
Dunn is a guy who is really well respected in NBA circles. After struggling with injuries early in his career, Dunn became one of college basketball’s best players at Providence. He is a competitor with really good tools at the point guard positon. Dunn is a big and strong guard with good athleticism. He led a not so talented Providence team to the second round of the NCAA tournament despite a lack of shooting around him. Overall, Dunn is just a really impressive player and point guard.
However, I have my concerns with Dunn. He is not a good shooter. His shot isn’t broken and there is a good chance it improves, but he really struggles from distance. Dunn also has a propensity to turn the ball over at a high rate. He just doesn’t value the ball like elite point guards do so he needs to clean that up if he wants to succeed at the next level. Dunn also has good defensive tools but hasn’t brought it on a consistent enough basis. He is not a good enough offensive player to justify being average or below average on defense. He needs to be a plus defender to be of much use to his future NBA employer.
My biggest problem with Dunn has nothing to do with him as a player. It has more to do with the state of the point guard position. It is the best position in basketball and it’s so oversaturated with good talent. If you look around the league, almost every team has a good point guard or two on its roster. Point guards are available for relatively cheap in free agency and later in the draft. You cannot really justify spending a top pick on a point guard unless you think he is going to be a top 5 to 8 player at his position. Dunn isn’t that kind of guy. There are probably 4 better point guard prospects in the draft next year than Dunn. The Sixers will also certainly able to draft someone later in the first round or spend some money on a stopgap lead guard in free agency. I think Dunn might be a good player, but he won’t be worth the top 6 or 7 pick necessary to get him.
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8. Buddy Hield (SG, Oklahoma)
Hield is an interesting player. Usually the guys that stay in college for 4 years are not deemed worthy of a top 5 pick. These guys tend to have serious limitations that have kept them from previously declaring. Hield is interesting in that he’s different and he isn’t. Hield does have some serious limitations but he has also improved at an unprecedented rate in college. He was a non-factor as a freshman and the best player in college basketball as a senior. There is some merit to the idea that Hield is worthy of a high pick, but I don’t really buy it.
Hield really only does one thing well, shoot. He is an elite shooter and I will give him that but I am not sure that is enough to be an impact player. People say that his floor is JJ Reddick or Kyle Korver and that is just wrong. Those guys are two of the best roles players in the whole league. They are the best shooters in the league. They have an intricate understanding of how to operate off-ball on offense and how to play well within a team concept on defense with crisp rotations and active hands. It is not even a guarantee that Buddy will learn to do that, let alone develop into a star. For Buddy to a star, he needs to improve his handle, his decision making, his passing ability and his defensive effort. He really is subpar in all of these areas and I feel like people are just glossing over the fact that he has major improvements to make. I just don’t think Hield is a top 5 pick and I am not sure that I would select him over some of the big men prospects if I was another team besides the frontcourt saturated Sixers.
This doesn’t mean Hield will be a bad player. His shooting really is something special and all indications point to him as the hardest worker in this draft. I would not be surprised if he improved on some of his deficiencies. I just wouldn’t bet my franchises’ future on him being a complete outlier. I would draft Hield in the late lottery if I was the Sixers just for his ability to space the floor and be a Robert Covington-like player, but he will never drop that far.
9. Jakob Poeltl (C, Utah)
Okay, I know you are thinking that Sixers can’t possibly draft another center. I get it. I really do. I am not sure under what circumstances the Sixers could realistically draft Poeltl. All that being said, I think Poeltl is one of the 4 or 5 best players in this draft in a vacuum. He is so skilled offensively and really solid on defense. Poeltl score effectively in the post as well as protect the rim. He doesn’t have the best skill guarding the pick and roll on the perimeter but he is passable. Poeltl is just a really solid big man who will help a team for years to come. The Sixers probably aren’t the best fit, but if some crazy stuff happens in terms of roster shake up, I wouldn’t mind seeing Utah’s big man in a Sixers uniform.
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10. Wade Baldwin (PG, Vanderbilt)
This last spot was really a toss-up between Baldwin and Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson. I don’t want to give too much away because this is a deep dive that I plan on doing closer to the draft after I study each guy more. Right now, I like Baldwin slightly more because of his athletic tools. Jackson is a good athlete, but Baldwin has a 6’ 10” wingspan. With that kind of length, he will be able to slow down opposing point guards and really bother them with his long arms. It would also allow the Sixer to move back to their ultra-aggressive switch everything defense from 2014-15 with Michael Carter-Williams that saw the team finish 13th in defensive rating despite lacking talent. The Sixers have had to move away from that defense as personnel has changed and that has seriously hurt the team. If Baldwin helps them get back to that style and level of defense, he is a game changer not matter what his offensive limitations are. Baldwin isn’t the shooter or pick and roll maestro that Jackson is, but he is still a really good guard. If I were the Sixers, I would trade back into the late lottery to nab Baldwin.
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