With the lottery happening in less than a week, I thought it would be a good time release an updated mock draft. My first attempt can be found here. Because the lottery has not happened yet, I decided to simulate the lottery using tankathon.com. I ran one simulation and then went through projecting players to teams in the lottery and the Sixers late first round picks. This is more of a projection than what I would do if I was in charge of these teams. For example, I would have Timothe Luwawu rated very highly, but I do not think NBA teams will value Luwawu quite as much as I do. After running the simulation, I got the following draft order: Suns, Celtics (via Nets), Sixers, Sixers (via Lakers), Wolves, Pelicans, Nuggets (via Knicks) Kings, Raptors (via Nuggets), Bucks, Magic, Jazz, Suns (via Wizards) and the Bulls. The Sixers will also pick at number 24 and 26 overall. So, without further ado, here goes the mock draft.
1. Phoenix Suns- Ben Simmons (PF, LSU)
I think Simmons is the guy for the Suns at number 1. Phoenix desperately needs a star and Simmons might be that guy. Their current core probably isn’t going anywhere so the fit of Simmons with the two point guard lineups of Bledsoe and Knight doesn’t particularly worry me. I think that sharing playmaking duties between Simmons and the two lead guards might actually work decently well. It all really comes down to the fact that Simmons is probably still the best player in the draft. Ingram is a close second but I still think Simmons has the edge for most teams, Phoenix included.
2. Boston Celtics- Brandon Ingram (SF, Duke)
This is a no-brainer for the Celtics. With Simmons off the board, Ingram is the best player left by far. This may not address the Celtics need in the frontcourt but teams can always use more great wing players and Ingram is too talented to pass on. He would give the Celtics some more spacing and the ability to create in an offense that can stagnate at times. I also would be intrigued to see what Brad Stevens could do defensively with Crowder and Ingram together. Maybe the answer to some of their frontcourt troubles is going small. The team still needs a rim protector but the Celtics would be foolish to pass on Ingram here.
3. Philadelphia 76ers- Dragan Bender (PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv)
First of all, if the Sixers end up in this situation, I think they make a trade to get into the top 2. Maybe they give Boston the 3rd pick and Okafor to move up to. Maybe they give Phoenix, a team with a lot of holes to fill, picks 3 and 4 in exchange for number 1. Still, there are no trades in this mock draft so I need to make a selection for the Sixers. As I said in my Dragan Bender scouting report from earlier this week, I think Bender fits better than some anticipate. He is ultimately a power forward in the NBA and I feel like he fits really well with Nerlens and Embiid. The fit with Okafor isn’t quite as ideal but it could work on the offensive end of the court. I just think Bender is too talented to pass on here. He could provide elite defense and floor spacing from the power forward position. Those kinds of players are incredibly rare and extremely valuable due to their versatility. Sixers fans probably won’t be happy, but Bender should be the pick here.
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4. Philadelphia 76ers- Timothe Luwawu (SG, Mega Leks)
Ok so I’m going to break my own rule here and say what I would do rather than what I think the Sixers will do. The Sixers, in this situation, would probably draft Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray because the team wants a point guard. Still, this is boring and I think it would be a mistake. Dunn doesn’t shoot well and he’s turnover happy. Murray doesn’t solve the point guard problem because he isn’t a point guard. Drafting for need this high is usually the wrong move, especially when there is better talent at another position of need. The Sixers need more wing players and I think Timothe Luwawu is the guy to fill that need. Luwawu has the potential to be a great two way wing. He has great size at 6’7” to go along with good wingspan and great athleticism. Those kind of tools lend themselves to great defensive potential. The Sixers really need a defensive stopper on the wing and Luwawu can certainly grow into that. Luwawu has some offensive skills as well. He uses his athleticism well on this end in the open court. Combine that with 37% from downtown and a good feel for the game, you can see a lot of potential on this end of the court for Luwawu as well. I’m sure that Sixers fans wouldn’t like this pick either but Luwawu is really good and I would be ecstatic if the Sixers picked him over some of the other flawed prospects in the draft.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Jamal Murray (SG, Kentucky)
The Wolves are probably an ideal fit for Murray, who needs that to be successful. The team could really use the spacing that Murray provides. Rubio might also be the perfect point guard to play with Murray considering his playmaking and ability to hide Murray’s defensive deficiencies by taking the tougher matchup. The Wolves also have Towns, a center who can protect the rim and clean up some of Murray’s mistakes. Rubio, Murray, and Zach Lavine is a really good guard rotation. Having one of Murray or Lavine coming off the bench will only maximize their effectiveness.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Kris Dunn (PG, Providence)
The Pelicans are going to need a point guard. Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday continue to be often injured as they head toward the end of their contracts. Dunn would be a good replacement for Jrue as the Pelicans continue to build around Anthony Davis. Dunn obviously needs to improve his shooting ability and take better care of the ball. Still, even if Dunn only slightly improves in those areas, he will be a solid player for years to come. That’s something New Orleans could use.
7. Denver Nuggets- Jaylen Brown (SF, Cal)
Jaylen Brown on the wing seems ideal for Denver at this point in the draft. The Nuggets could use that athleticism and I think Brown could thrive in an up-tempo offense with Emmanuel Mudiay running the point. Brown still has a lot to work out on the basketball court but he has the tools to succeed. His athleticism is supreme and if he can improve some of his skills, then he has a legitimate chance to be a very good player in this league. Combine that with Denver’s hole on the wing and you have a match.
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8. Sacramento Kings- Henry Ellenson (PF, Marquette)
I think Henry Ellenson is a pretty good fit in Sacramento. The Kings don’t really have the answer at power forward but a stretch 4 like Ellenson could be a start. Ellenson’s ability to space the floor will be key in keeping double teams off of Demarcus Cousins. Even if Cousins isn’t there longterm in Sacramento, Ellenson could help space the floor for Willy Cauley-Stein or any other big on the Kings. Ellenson definitely has some weaknesses on the defensive end but the hope is that he can mitigate those concerns with his offensive contributions.
9. Toronto Raptors- Buddy Hield (SG, Oklahoma)
Hield really is the victim in this scenario. There probably aren’t many other ones in which the National Player of the Year falls this far. I personally don’t like Hield much as a prospect but it still would be hard to have him falling below the Raptors. In this scenario, Toronto would probably be very upset after missing out on Ellenson who would be a perfect fit for them. Still, with him off the board, I think Hield makes sense. The Raptors are pretty deep on the wing but they may lose Demar Derozan this offseason. Hield couldn’t replace Demar but he could be a part in changing the Raptors identity. Hield was incredibly efficient in college. The Raptors are not an efficient team and could use some more consistent shooting from beyond the arc. Hield may not be exactly what the Raptors wanted, but they would probably consider him a pretty decent consolation prize.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Jakob Poeltl (C, Utah)
It looks like the Bucks might have made a mistake giving Greg Monroe a big contract last offseason. Monroe didn’t thrive offensively in Milwaukee’s no spacing offense and the Bucks also saw a precipitous drop in their defense. I don’t think that can all be blamed on Monroe but I do think the Bucks could use an upgrade. I think Poeltl fits the bill. He is one of the best players in this draft but suffers because most of the teams at the top of the lottery don’t need frontcourt help. I think Poeltl’s offensive skills and defensive abilities make him a steal for the Bucks at this point in the draft.
11. Orlando Magic- Denzel Valentine (SG, Michigan State)
Orlando certainly isn’t the most stable situation in the world right now. Their head coach, Scott Skiles, just resigned a few days ago after only one year on the job. As the Magic search for a coach, they also need to figure out the future of their roster. Evan Fournier will be a restricted free agent this offseason and I’m not so sure that Orlando will want to pay the young Frenchman the salary that he might command on the open market. One possible replacement for Fournier would come in the form of Denzel Valentine. Valentine is one of the most skilled players in this draft. The whole Michigan State offense ran through the senior as he displayed great playmaking abilities. Valentine also really well from downtown during his senior season as he continued to impress. Valentine’s main concern comes on the defensive end where he doesn’t really have good tools. Still, Valentine is incredibly smart so I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned himself into a really good team defender to help make up for some of his individual flaws.
12. Utah Jazz- Skal Labissiere (PF, Kentucky)
Skal had a really rough first year at Kentucky. He really struggled with his ability to rebound. He’s rail thin and lacks the toughness to make up for that. Still, Labissiere is incredibly talented and hasn’t being playing basketball for that long. He has really good natural touch to go along with solid athletic tools. The Jazz can afford to take a risk here because they have so much young talent, especially in the frontcourt. Labissiere, if he develops well, is a perfect fit next to either Gobert or Favors. This is a high risk, high reward pick that the Jazz can afford to gamble on.
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13. Phoenix Suns- Deyonta Davis (PF, Michigan State)
Here, the Suns will be betting on Davis’ upside. At Michigan State, Davis was quite productive in limited minutes while showing defensive ability and the beginnings of fluid jumper. Davis needs to add weight and fill out the rest of his game, but his upside is great and the Suns could use this extra pick to add some young frontcourt depth.
14. Chicago Bulls- Demetrius Jackson (PG, Notre Dame)
The Bulls need to add some point guard depth because Derrick Rose is in the final year of his contract. They have some options with Jackson, Wade Baldwin and Tyler Ulis. Ulis is a steady hand a hometown kid, but I think Jackson is the pick here. He could help space the floor with also being an explosive offensive player next to Jimmy Butler. Chicago would do well to add a dynamic point guard at this point in the lottery.
24. Philadelphia 76ers- Patrick McCaw (SG, UNLV)
Last time, I had Bembry here. However, after a strong few days at the combine, I wouldn’t be surprised if the local product didn’t make it to the Sixers at 24 so in steps a new prospect- Patrick McCaw. I think McCaw is one of the most underrated players in this draft. He has great size at 6’7” to go along with some pretty good ball skills. McCaw is still developing as a shooter but he improved last season. He also is a really good athlete. McCaw hasn’t exactly but all these skills together yet but he has all the talent to develop into a 3-and-D wing that can also create on offense. Not bad at all this low in the draft.
26. Philadelphia 76ers- Thon Maker (C, High School)
I had a foreign draft and stash prospect- Isaiah Cordinier- here last time. This time, I decided to go with a domestic draft and stash. Maker has been a notable prospect for years now because of some tantalizing mixtapes on youtube. Obviously, highlights don’t lead to NBA success but Maker has potential. However, NBA teams may have a tough time evaluating Maker considering he will never play a game in college. Maker reclassified and was going to a freshmen in the next college basketball season but he decided to declare for the draft, something he was allowed to do because he did graduate from high school more than a year ago. The logistics are strange but Maker will be available in this year’s draft. So what kind of player is Maker? He’s a very tall but lanky guy with pretty good athleticism and a lot of shooting ability. The hope with Maker is to develop him into a center who block shots and hit from the outside. Thon has the potential to be an incredibly valuable player but he will need some seasoning. Maker will probably need a year or two in the D-League before he can contribute in the NBA. Still, with that kind of upside and the amount of picks that the Sixers have, it might not be a bad gamble.
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