Ben Simmons was the consensus number 1 player in this draft class for years. The talented Australian forward is actually still the number one player on the majority of big boards. It certainly isn’t with the same unanimity that existed coming into the season, but most people still prefer Simmons to Duke swingman Brandon Ingram. Still, whether it was the beginning of the season or right now or even a few years ago, the concern with Simmons has always been the same. His jumper. Simmons only took 45 jump shots the entire season at LSU. That’s absurdly low for a player who had the ball in his hands as much as Simmons did. Many wonder how Simmons could be the top prospect despite an inability to shoot the ball effectively from the midrange or beyond. The answer most obviously lies in Simmons ability to run the offense like a point guard despite being the size of a power forward. Simmons has a great handle. He also possesses better vision and passing abilities than most point guards. Combine those skills with really good athleticism and you have a top prospect. Still, I think we even be underrating Simmons as an NBA prospect because we don’t always consider all the different aspects of spacing.
The most obvious way that a player can space the floor is with a jump shot. If a player can make an outside shot, they have a certain gravity. That is, their shooting is a force that draws defenders closer them. That means that defenders cannot leave a great shooter in order to rotate over and play help defense because of the threat that a great outside shooter poses. Leaving this shooter to help would leave him open for an incredibly efficient shot. Obviously, the better shooter a player is, the harder it becomes for a defender to help off that the player. If defenders are unable to help off their primary assignments, it gives the offense more space to operate with and generally, more spacing leads to more efficient offense. Clearly spacing is key for the modern NBA and shooting is one way to unlock that valuable space. That’s definitely a concern for Simmons but I do think he can manufacture spacing for the offense in other ways.
First, I think shooting as a whole isn’t as important for the ballhandler on offense as it is for off ball players. As long as the players around Simmons can hit from the outside then the spacing should be fine, at least when he has the ball in his hands. Obviously, defenses will be able to sag off Simmons when he is handling the ball, but I think he may be able to get around that too. With his passing ability, sagging very far off Simmons could be a bad idea for a defense. I’m not sure you want to give a guy with that kind of vision and those passing skills a lot of room to work with. If you fail to pressure an elite passer like him, you will very often get burnt. Giving Simmons a lot of room to work with also allows him to get a head of steam when he attacks off the dribble. Simmons has a pretty good first step but it’s not necessarily elite either. He will be able to use that space to gather more speed as he tries to attack the basket. Essentially, I think Simmons can use some of his skills and the space provided by the defense to make up for his lack of shooting while on the ball.
I also think Simmons can help the spacing while playing off the ball too despite a lack of shooting. As I talked about earlier, shooting helps defenders stick to you more closely as opposed to rotating to play help defense. Because Simmons is not a great shooter, teams will probably rotate heavily off of him. Here is where I think Simmons can make the defense pay. If his defender comes off of him, Simmons then has the chance to receive the ball with the space to make a play and punish the defense. Simmons has the skill to attack open space and he also can use that skill to attack close outs. If a defender tries to recover back to Simmons, he will have the chance to attack a defender who is already slightly out of position and on their heels. Simmons can look to penetrate to either score or distribute. Lastly, I think the team can creative and use Simmons as a screener both on and off ball. Here, he will be able to help others get space and then roll to the basket. Altogether, I think these skills allow Simmons to attack effectively without being a great shooter. Obviously this isn’t a perfect solution. Teams will be able to make some adjustments to slow down Simmons and the Sixers if he cannot shoot. It would certainly be much easier if Simmons could even become just an average shooter but I think Simmons can succeed without a good jumper. That’s what makes him so good.
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Still, there are other flaws in Simmons game that may concern others. He has good size but just average length with a 7 foot wingspan. Simmons is also a very good athlete but not a great one. He moves side to side well and is a pretty good leaper but lacks the tremendous explosion of most elite players. These limitations aren’t a huge cause for concern, especially for a player as skilled as Simmons, but they need to be taken into account regardless.
Some of these athletic concerns rear their head on the defensive end, a place where Simmons also struggles. Simmons can be beat by quicker players on the perimeter and his defense is one the reasons that some prefer Brandon Ingram. Still, I think Simmons defensive concerns are overblown. Like I said, Simmons doesn’t have great athletic tools, but he also doesn’t have bad ones either. His athleticism is really good on the whole, it just falls short of most star players. However, I think he has enough athleticism to make it work on the defensive end. Simmons can use his lateral quickness and leverage his strength to at least be an average defender on the perimeter. Simmons is also a really good defensive rebounder which is an underrated defensive skill. By grabbing boards on the defensive end, Simmons can effectively end possessions for the other team. Simmons will never be a shot blocker because of his length, but I think he can hold up in terms of the other aspects of defense. I will say that I do think that Simmons would have greater defensive success at the power forward position as opposed to the wing. Playing him as the power forward will leave Simmons with fewer perimeter mismatches. Basically, I think Simmons can be a good defender from the power forward position but just an average one on the wing. Still, his defensive success at any position will most likely hinge on his effort, another red flag for Simmons.
Simmons often looked disengaged on the defensive end, especially in the second half of the season. Most young players take plays off on defense but Simmons did so at alarming rate. He failed to give effort on a number of plays in college and that’s definitely a concern for NBA teams. There have also been rumblings about Simmons character and work ethic in general. Still, I think these concerns may be a little overblown. Marc Whittington of Liberty Ballers did a good job discussing Simmons concerns with character here. Character obviously matters but it’s definitely hard for NBA executives and scouts to really know a kid. These reports are often flawed. Let’s not forget how much Jahlil Okafor’s character was praised coming out of Duke. I don’t think Jahlil is a bad guy but he definitely had some growing pains, as he was cited for speeding over 100 mph before the season even started. I’m not going to sit here and say that I know Simmons is a great guy. I don’t. I do know that the Sixers will have a chance to interview Simmons and get more background information of him than we will. They obviously have to wary of these concerns but fans need to understand that the team is in a better position to make a decision on Simmons character than we are.
Overall, Simmons has some concerns and they are certainly real things to be wary of if you are the Sixers. However, I think a lot of this is a result of Simmons being heavily scrutinized. He is certainly the most hyped player in the draft and with that hype comes more eyeballs. People have been watching Simmons for years and it really gives them the chance to pick apart his game. This isn’t to say that Simmons doesn’t have real concerns The shooting, defense and possible character issues are troubling. Still, all prospects have their flaws. Simmons unique skill set and abilities just allow him to transcend those negative aspects of his games. Brandon Ingram is a very good player in his own right and I think the Sixers certainly have a tough decision on their hands, but if they pick Simmons, I think they may be getting a future star.
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