In the NBA, we often talk about games and seasons as outliers, but we rarely apply that logic to development arcs. We rarely discuss how some guys succeed against the odds. There are some players in the league who succeed despite an unusual path to the NBA or despite an unusual set of skills. Steph Curry is an example of an outlier. Most superstars and league MVPs don’t come from Davidson. Most elite NBA players have major division one scholarship offers coming out of high school. The list of unlikely accomplishments goes on and on with Curry. The problem with Buddy Hield is that he isn’t Steph Curry. Or at least that we can’t expect him to become Steph Curry.
The whole point of an outlier is that it isn’t typical. Just because Steph Curry succeeds does not mean that Buddy Hield will succeed. For every Steph Curry, there is a Jimmer Fredette. Much like Steph Curry, Fredette’s NBA success would have been considered an outlier. He went to a small school and didn’t necessarily have the traits that teams usually look for in a star player. Still, there are many people who thought Fredette would be a better NBA player than Curry. The whole point here is that just because someone exceeds expectations as an older college player, that doesn’t make them Steph Curry. Just because a guy succeeded in college as a high volume jumpshooter, that doesn’t make him Steph Curry. Buddy Hield’s NBA stardom would be completely predicated on the miniscule chance that he is a Curry-like outlier who succeeds despite the fact that there’s no quantifiable reason that he should. Essentially, Hield at best has about a 5% chance to be a star player? That’s probably too high of a number, but let’s stick with that. Do you wanna use a top 5 pick on a guy with subpar athletic tools who has one defining skill because there may be an incredibly small chance he becomes something great? That seems foolish to me.
I know this all sounds really grandiose and theoretical. This is an abstract and macro way of looking at things. Still, I think by taking a micro view of Buddy Hield as a basketball player, there are tangible concerns. Now, let’s start that process. Hield’s strengths are obvious. He is an incredible outside shooter. Hield made 147 threes on 46% percent shooting. He was incredibly efficient scorer who boasted a 67% effective field goal percentage. Hield was an elite shooter and an immensely efficient scorer. Buddy is also a guy who rose slowly despite being a low-rated recruit coming out of high school. Buddy Hield, through a ton of dedication and hard work, improved significantly each season at Oklahoma and I really respect that. By all accounts, he is an amazing kid and a really great leader who had a great season and a remarkable run in the NCAA tournament.
http://gty.im/502472254
Still, I have major problems with every other aspect of Hield’s game. The biggest problem with Hield is probably his athletic profile. He’s an undersized 2 guard at 6’4” with an average 6’8” wingspan. Buddy also is really just an average athlete. Even in college, Hield wasn’t known for his athleticism. Obviously he isn’t devoid of speed and explosiveness, but he will be at a constant disadvantage in the NBA. Very simply, that’s just incredibly difficult to overcome. The way that he could overcome it is with some more skill, but Hield simply isn’t skilled outside of his shooting. He has an average handle that he was able to get away with throughout most of his collegiate career. Still, there were even times in college where that got exposed. Watch him in the Final Four against Villanova. When his outside shot didn’t fall, Hield had nothing. The Wildcats completely contained him with their perimeter athletes, who aren’t even necessarily guys with elite NBA-level athleticism. Hield also lacks a number of other key skills. Hield wasn’t a good finisher at the rim in college. He also didn’t have great playmaking or passing abilities. Hield averaged more turnovers than assists his senior year and his assist-to-turnover ratio in the NCAA tournament was abysmal. Sure Hield can shoot, but if he can’t improve on these other skills, then shooting isn’t going to help him much.
Hield also doesn’t project well on the defensive end. He can probably hold up as an average defender. He is decently strong and his wingspan is long enough to bother some players when you factor in some decent lateral athleticism. Still, Hield will probably never be a good defender and he lacks defensive versatility. Buddy does not have the size to guard taller players or the speed to guard point guards. In the NBA, Hield is probably only guarding other shooting guards. That can be fine, but it gives his future team very little options. That means they can’t go small with him on the court and they can’t defend the now popular two point guard lineups. Hield maxes out as an average defender who provides very little versatility. That simply is not a great combination for a top prospect.
I don’t understand how a team could ever justify spending a top 10 pick on this guy. He essentially has one offensive skill and will likely be a liability on defense. Sure, a lot of these prospects from the 2016 draft class are flawed. Most of them have one or two glaring weaknesses. Still, given that Hield has about five, I don’t really understand the hype surrounding the shooting guard out of Oklahoma. I also don’t really understand how he is seen as a “safe pick”. People will say that his floor is as a JJ Reddick or Kyle Korver type shooter. That’s just incorrect. Those guys can shoot and so can Buddy but those guys do so much more. Reddick and Korver are two of the most intelligent and active defenders in the league. They also perfectly execute their roles on the offensive end. Buddy Hield’s floor isn’t elite role player, his floor is really good three point shooter who can’t get off the bench because he does nothing else of value. Maybe Buddy Hield will prove me wrong. Maybe that work ethic and shooting is enough to propel himself into being a good player or even stardom. We can’t really be sure about how any of these guys will turn out. But if there is one thing that I am sure about, it’s that I don’t want my team to be the one who bets on Buddy Hield’s small chances of being an outlier.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
