Tyler Zeller, by all individual counts, is having a great year for the Celtics. He has been one of the team’s most efficient players, shooting 54% from the field, and while his per game averages of 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds may not be eye-popping, his per 36 averages of 16.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.3 blocks are all career highs. As many have pointed out, Danny Ainge was able to acquire Tyler Zeller for next to nothing, taking advantage of the Cavaliers need to create cap space for LeBron James.
However, despite the individual numbers and the improvement Zeller has shown throughout the season, the Celtics have not been a good offensive team with him on the court. Per NBA.com, the Celtics score 97.8 points per 100 possessions when Zeller is on the floor, a rate that would rank just below the New York Knicks offense and a few points ahead of the last place 76ers offense. According to Basketball-Reference, the Celtics are 6.2 points better offensively per 100 possessions when Zeller is off the floor.
So, why has Zeller’s efficient play on the offensive end not translated into team success? Here are a few big reasons why and the implications they have as the Celtics make a run at the playoffs. As you will see, some of the factors at play are out of Tyler Zeller’s control.
The Spacing Factor
The first, and most pressing, question to answer is why the Celtics have been better off with Tyler Zeller on the bench this season. The best way to do that is to compare Zeller to his backup, Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk began the season as the starter before Zeller took over the position in late November. What Olynyk brings on the offensive end that Zeller does not is floor spacing. Olynyk’s ability to shoot the three makes him a matchup nightmare for most NBA centers who do not like to stray far away from the paint. Olynyk has not only demonstrated the ability to knock down the long-range shot, but also the ball handling skill to attack a closeout with a pump fake and drive. Olynyk’s presence on the court consistently creates advantageous situations for the Celtics by drawing the opposition’s rim protector away from the basket, whether that be for an Olynyk three/drive, or a teammate benefiting from the extra spacing on the court.
Olynyk’s offensive skill, though acknowledged, has been largely understated. Olynyk ranks first among all NBA centers in ESPN’s Offensive Real Plus Minus statistic (ORPM), a stat that attempts to isolate a single player’s impact while he is on the floor by accounting for lineup factors, opponents, and a list of other variables. According to this stat, Olynyk has the single greatest impact on his team’s scoring of any center in the NBA, including guys like Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan. Zeller, by comparison, ranks 30th (-1.06 for Zeller compared to 1.99 for Olynyk).
The Celtics team statistics with Olynyk on the floor support the idea that he has a tremendous impact on the team’s offense. Per NBA.com, the Celtics score 105.2 points per 100 possessions when Olynyk is on the floor, a mark that is 7.4 points per 100 better than Tyler Zeller. Theoretically, if Olynyk were to play all 48 minutes of the game, the Celtics would have a top 10 offense, ranking just ahead of the San Antonio Spurs. Obviously, that would not happen, but it does illustrate that the team is effective with Kelly on the floor.
Tyler Zeller has done a nice job shooting the mid-range jumper this season, and actually leads the Celtics in catch-and-shoot shooting percentage at 54.5%. Still, his inability to space the floor out to the three point line, compared to a guy like Kelly Olynyk, means that he’s not going to have as great of an impact on an offense predicated on pace and space. Being compared to a guy like Olynyk is not totally fair, as Olynyk’s skill set is unique among NBA centers. Not many NBA centers have range out to the 3-point line, indicating there are other factors at play in Zeller’s low offensive rating.
Celtics Personnel Factor
A significant piece to this puzzle is the Celtics roster, and how the rest of the team compliments Tyler Zeller. First, Zeller’s biggest strength on the offensive end is his ability to roll hard to the basket. His soft hands and nice touch around the rim make him a great pick and roll big, as illustrated by his 1.18 points per possession in those situations, which ranks in the 88th percentile, per NBA.com. However, the guards he has been paired with on pick and rolls this season, Evan Turner, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart, have not been good as pick and roll ball handlers. Zeller does not get the ball on the roll as often as he should, given how efficient he is when he does get it. New point guard Isaiah Thomas is better off the pick and roll, but he typically uses the screen to create offense for himself rather than for others.
When the Celtics had Rajon Rondo, a player adept at hitting the roll man, Zeller’s shooting percentages were sky-high. Still, when Zeller shared the floor with Rondo, the pair was -2.6 points per 100 possessions worse than their opponents, according to Basketball-Reference. While that’s better than Zeller’s -4.8 average, it’s still not good.
However, other personnel factors come into play as well. As MassLive.com’s Jay King pointed out to me, Zeller has often been a part of lineups that struggle to score. The Celtics most common 5-man lineup this season is their current starting lineup of Zeller, Smart, Bradley, Turner and Bass. That lineup holds an abysmal 90.6 offensive rating, a number that would rank lower than the last place Philadelphia 76ers. With Zeller playing the majority of his minutes with such an awful offensive lineup, his personal offensive rating is naturally going to be lower.
To take that idea a step further, of the 1,361 minutes Zeller has played this season, Evan Turner has been on the floor for 820 of them (60%). Turner is not an ideal pairing for a player like Zeller. Turner hurts the Celtics spacing (shooting under 30% from 3) making it more difficult for a guy like Zeller, who we already established provides less spacing than Olynyk, to operate. Adding guys like Brandon Bass, who doesn’t stretch the floor, and Marcus Smart, who has been inconsistent with his shot, does not help. A significant benefit of having a guy like Zeller who is so good at rolling to the rim is it sucks in help defenders, opening up shots for wing players (think Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard when Splitter or Duncan roll to the rim). The Celtics best wing 3-point shooter this year has been Avery Bradley, and while his shooting has gotten better after a rough start, he is still only at 35% from three for the year.
The Celtics inability to shoot the three partially negates Zeller’s impact rolling to the basket, his greatest strength, while also making it harder for Zeller to get the ball off of pick and roll plays.
Zeller’s Limitations
Most of Zeller’s poor offensive rating can be explained by looking at the players he’s surrounded by, but Zeller’s limitations do play a role as well. While Zeller is not expected to shoot the ball from deep, he is sometimes reluctant to shoot a mid-range jumper even though he shoots a high percentage on catch and shoot opportunities. As we saw against the Pacers, when Zeller is hitting that mid-range shot, he becomes an even more dangerous pick and roll threat by giving him the ability to mix it up. Instead of always rolling to the rim, Zeller can pick and pop or shallow roll for an open mid-range jump shot.
The next step for Zeller is developing a reliable back to the basket game. Most of that will come as he continues to get stronger. After Jared Sullinger, Zeller is the best back to basket option the Celtics have, and with his unorthodox ability to make flip shots and jump hooks he has the potential to improve even further as he gains strength. He has also shown the ability to get to the free throw line at a decent rate, and is a good shooter once he gets there (81%).
Zeller will always be limited by his athleticism. He will never be an athletic pick and roll target like Brandan Wright, Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan, which is fine. Zeller makes up for his lack of athleticism with his touch and skill. While the Celtics guards may not be able to lob the ball up at the rim to get it to him, they should make more of a concerted effort to find their big man in the pick and roll game.
Implications for the Celtics Playoff Run
What does Zeller’s offensive rating mean for the Celtics playoff run? Right now, The Celtics are finding a way to win games, so it is tough to say they should make changes. However, Isaiah Thomas’ return to action could impact Zeller and his playing time.
Stevens prefers to play Thomas with the Celtics’ floor spacing big men, Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko. Since Jerebko began to get rotation minutes against the Knicks, Thomas has played more than twice as many minutes with him than with Zeller. Now that Kelly Olynyk has been fully integrated into the rotation following his injury, he and Jerebko may be the primary bigs that Thomas plays with.
Thomas thrives on having a great deal of space to penetrate and finish at the rim or draw fouls. While his time with the Celtics represents a small sample size, he has shot 41% at the rim when sharing the floor with Zeller or Bass, compared to 60% when sharing the floor with Olynyk or Jerebko. That’s a significant difference. When IT is on the floor, as I’m sure he will be quite a bit, especially late in games, the Celtics will want to maximize the space he has to operate. This could mean a boost in minutes for guys like Olynyk and Jerebko at the expense of Zeller and Bass.
Of course, the game is not all about offense. The Celtics are going to need to get stops to be successful in this final stretch. Surprisingly, the team has better defensive rating when Kelly Olynyk (102.4) is on the floor as compared to Tyler Zeller (102.7), though the numbers may not tell the full story. Zeller is the team’s best post defender, and will often play more when the Celtics are matched up against a good post player or a big team. Zeller draws the tougher matchups, as Olynyk tends to struggle with foul trouble when teams post him up.
There is something to be said about Olynyk’s defense, which has been great in the month of March (89.3 DEF RTG). The young big man has improved at rotating and contesting shots at the rim, closing the gap between him and Zeller as rim protectors. According to Nylon Calculus’ rim protection statistics, opposing shooters shot roughly the same percentage at the rim against Olynyk and Zeller (about 50%) through March 1. However, Zeller’s contest percentage is significantly higher (55% compared to 36%) indicating that he is the better rim protector. Olynyk makes up some of the defensive difference by putting the ball in the hoop. It is much more difficult to score against a set defense after a made basket than off a miss.
Brad Stevens will continue to play the matchups with Zeller, playing him more against bigger teams and less against teams that don’t have a good back to the basket player. He will continue to prefer Olynyk when the team needs an offensive spark, which is why we have seen Olynyk start the second half in Zeller’s place a few times recently. Personally, with the return of Isaiah Thomas, I’d like to see Olynyk play more. That pairing has the potential to be very dangerous offensively, and, as long as they can hold their own on the defensive end, would provide the Celtics with a pick and roll/pop tandem that not many NBA teams would be able to guard.
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