Poetically, two new ‘dance tickets’ get punched tonight. Loyola against Lewis, BYU against Stanford, each match awarding an automatic NCAA tournament bid. The reality is that at least three of these teams are in for sure. There’s no way Loyola, BYU, or Stanford are staying home next week, and I think everyone can agree to that.
Most seem to think that Lewis, who have seldom if ever been in the single-digits in the national rankings this season and really don’t have any particular “signature” wins of note, are playing for their season tonight. I say ‘most’ because Vinnie Lopes over at Off the Block holds that Lewis hold the edge over Pepperdine for an at-large bid. It’s a bold prediction, though it’s worth pointing out that this isn’t Vinnie’s final projection.
I’m with the majority on that topic — Lewis have to win tonight to keep their season going. And the Pepperdine Waves are the biggest Loyola fans on the planet tonight, because if the Ramblers don’t use up an at-large berth, the Waves’ chances of making it dramatically improve. I’ve never really been on the Wave bandwagon at any point this season, and I’m not sure why that should change now, but it seems pretty obvious that they’re in over Lewis, if it comes to that. The Flyers face an uphill battle this evening at the Gentile Arena, just as teams have all year long — in their 16 home wins, the Ramblers have dropped just 7 sets.
I haven’t written much about Loyola this year simply because I haven’t had the chance to see them firsthand. I saw them a lot last year, though, and there can be no denying that they’re national championship contenders in 2014. Thomas Jaeschke has blossomed into an offensive weapon this season, while Joe Smalzer remains a serving dynamo and scoring workhorse at opposite (I’m a bit stunned Smalzer didn’t make even second-team All-American). You don’t hit .363 as a team for the season without getting just about everything going right.
Lewis, who I have seen a few times this year, have some fine players across the net, led by three-time All-American setter BJ Boldog and his fellow All-American honouree Geoff Powell on the pin. Getting sophomore middle blocker Bobby Walsh going to slow down the Loyola attack will be crucial, but that’s so much easier said than done. Both Loyola/Lewis matches in the regular season went to the Ramblers by a 3-1 score, which seems pretty fitting.
I saw as much of the two MPSF semifinals on Thursday as I was able. (Insert whine about home wifi connection here) Frankly, both Stanford and BYU looked unbeatable. BYU always look unbeatable at home (they haven’t lost at the Smith Field House since a shocking collapse against Lewis last season where they went up 2-0 at intermission before losing in five), and when Stanford get their block going, they quite literally have no weaknesses. Blocking has been their Achilles heel (when they’ve had one) this season, but the roof was on display against the Waves in force. With All-Americans Brian Cook, Steven Irvin, and James Shaw on the court, good things happen. I’m not one much taken to believe in momentum — momentum’s only as good as the last rally. But coming into tonight’s final having won 13 straight MPSF matches sure can’t hurt the Cardinal.
The Cougars haven’t been on such a roll. They limped into the postseason, barely securing hosting privileges for the MPSF semis and final on the basis of a tiebreaker with Pepperdine — they did not win the conference outright (which Pepperdine fans cling to as a ray of hope for Selection Sunday). They lost starting setter Tyler Heap to injury during a dismal four-match losing skid to close out the regular season, but new-kid-on-the-block Robbie Sutton seems to be running the offence just fine.
Both are in the NCAA tournament, beyond question. The winner tonight likely receive a first-round bye (in the event of a Loyola loss, it’s possible that both will get one). It’s hard to project which of them, if either, will be back at this level in 2015. BYU will have lost Taylor Sander and not gotten back Ben Patch, leaving Tim Dobbert to shoulder the load (and whatever the middle blocker position still holds). Stanford lose….well, basically everyone but Shaw. This is definitely a peak for both teams, so it’s good to see both get a chance at a national championship.
A pick? I’ll say Stanford in five. It’s hard to pick against either team right now.
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