Twitter users and armchair managers have picked on Carlos Santana for years. For one reason or another, the Dominican-born slugger has always been an easy target for Cleveland fans looking to find an outlet for their frustration. Santana isn’t a perfect player by any means: he is below-average on defense, he isn’t a burner running the bases, and he never has carried a high batting average.
However, despite what many grumpy fans may suggest, Santana is a very productive hitter. In fact, between 2012-2016, he was one of only 16 players to hit at least 100 home runs and carry a .360 on-base percentage or better. His 124 wRC+ during that span means that Santana created 24% more runs than the league average player. Although Santana’s batting average has never passed .268 in his MLB career, his elite walk rate (career 15.3%), solid strikeout rate (career 17.3%), and his well above-average power (career .194 ISO) have combined to create one of the league’s better offensive players. To boot, Santana has historically hit well from both sides of the plate, producing a 124 wRC+ right-handed, and a 121 wRC+ left-handed.
The Indians recognized Santana’s offensive ability early in his career, and signed him to a 5-year, $21 million extension in 2012. He’s been worth 15 WAR during the course of deal, and considering teams usually pay around $8 million per WAR on the open market, Santana’s deal was an absolute bargain for the Indians. Before the season, the Indians exercised their team option on Santana for $12 million, which was the last year of the contract. Considering Santana was coming off a huge year in 2016, where he slashed .259/.366/.498 on his way to a career-high 3.7 WAR, picking up Santana’s option was a no-brainer. Santana performed like a borderline star in 2016, and turning 31 in April, he was still in the back end of his prime years.
Unfortunately, Santana’s 2017 hasn’t gone to plan. After his big year last year, he is currently only slashing .222/.326/.389 – good for a mere 88 wRC+. By WAR, Santana has actually been below replacement level, entering Thursday with -0.1 WAR. While it wouldn’t be fair to expect Santana to replicate his career-best year in 2016, his numbers across the board are still far-below his career averages.
One disturbing trend for Santana is the continued decline of his walk rate. Santana currently has a 13.1% walk rate, which is still far above the league average. However, it’s 1.3% less than his rate in 2016, and if it holds, it would be the third consecutive year the Dominican has seen a drop in walks, seen in the graph below.
It’s important for Santana to draw a high number of walks, given his batted ball profile. As a pull-heavy hitter with a long swing, Santana is one of the easiest players to shift on in baseball. With shifting becoming more popular, Santana hasn’t seen a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) higher than .261 since 2013. Considering the league average is .300, Santana needs to compensate: either by hitting for power, or by taking a lot of walks. Any drop in either category reduces his margin of error for successful outcomes.
Likewise, Santana becoming easier to shift on makes his job more challenging. As it would happen, he is pulling the ball at the second-highest rate of his career this season (54.7%) and going to the opposite field at the second-lowest rate of his career (14.7%). With this in mind, his current career-low BABIP of .236 can’t be completely attributed to bad luck.
Much of Santana’s struggles come from his extremely poor showing when hitting right-handed. While he’s actually been historically better when batting from the right side, he’s been awful this season, putting up a meager 63 wRC+ (compared to a 105 wRC+ left-handed). Much like his walk rate, his performance as a right-handed hitter has also been in decline for the past few seasons, as showcased by the blue line in the graph below.
Santana’s struggles hitting right-handed in 2017 seem to be caused by a tendency to beat pitches into the ground. This year, he’s only managed a 3.8 degree average launch angle hitting right-handed, compared to an 8.3 mark last year. According to Baseball Savant, he’s “topped” 43% of his batted balls from the right side – and has hit a putrid .070 on those balls.
As bad as Santana has been against lefties, the issue has been magnified, considering he’s faced lefties more often this year than in previous seasons. This year, he’s seen southpaws in 28.2% of his plate appearances, compared 22.2% in 2016 and 25.5% in 2015. Perhaps that will correct itself going forward, but opposing managers will be more likely to match Santana with a southpaw in late-game situations as long as his struggles continue.
Santana’s case is an interesting one, as he is in a contract year. At one point, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Santana’s performance would price him out of the Indians’ budget. If he picks up his performance in the coming months – a strong possibility, considering Santana is a classic slow-starter – that very well may be the case.
However, based on his decline walk rate, increased pull rate, and problems with launch angle, it’s clear Santana has mechanical and mental tweaks to make to his game if he wants to improve his production. If that proves too tall a task midseason for the 31-year-old, Cleveland will have some interesting choices to make in the offseason.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
