Stacking Up the ROY for MCW

By Sean Kennedy

On Monday, the NBA officially announced Sixers point guard Michael Carter-Williams as the 2013-14 Rookie of the Year. Carter-Williams received 104 out of 124 first-place votes, with Victor Oladipo a distant second, thereby joining Allen Iverson as the only Rookie of the Year award winners in franchise history. First off, let me state that this is an incredible accomplishment for MCW, and he was certainly one of the few truly enjoyable things to watch during a season where losing was the primary objective at an organizational level. After tailing off from his initial hot start, Carter-Williams clearly made significant strides in his game toward the end of the season, and the fact that Sam Hinkie unearthed such a promising young player with the 11th pick in the draft is something to be celebrated.

Now, that being said, I’m going to be the fly in the ointment here and point out that the comparisons to Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson the media keeps throwing out are incredibly misleading. MCW replicated the type of counting stats that only those hall-of-famers have matched in their rookie year because of the Sixers’ incredible pace of play throughout the season. If we examine his production at an efficiency and per-possession level, we’ll see that his season doesn’t equate with recent award winners, let alone historic greats. Below are the statlines for recent rookie of the year award winners at the pure point guard position (thereby excluding Tyreke Evans and Brandon Roy who put up some lofty assist numbers in hybrid roles). Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

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To nobody’s surprise, the biggest flaw in Carter-Williams’ game this season was his poor shooting, as both his true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage are by far the worst among this group of point guards. That brick-laying is the main reason he actually had negative offensive win shares on the season, and below-average marks in both win shares per 48 minutes and player efficiency rating (which while admittedly incomplete measures, are the best statistical ways to evaluate a player’s overall game we currently have). This aspect of his game has always been a part of his scouting profile and was the main reason he fell to the Sixers at the 11th pick in the first place. Whether MCW can improve upon his shooting to even a league-average level will ultimately determine if he’ll ascend to the all-star level of the other players on this list.

Still, there were plenty of areas Carter-Williams matched or exceeded the production of his point guard counterparts during his rookie season. At 6’6″, MCW is always going to be an excellent rebounder at the point guard position, as the data backs up, and he was able to use his length to make highlight-worthy plays on the defensive end with big steal and block numbers. He certainly has a lot to learn about defensive fundamentals, but as he continues to progress on that side of the ball, Carter-Williams has the profile of a great defender.

Also encouragingly, his assist numbers were right in the middle of the pack of this group, which is especially impressive given the dearth of quality shooters and interior finishers with which the organization surrounded him. The high turnover rate is obviously concerning but MCW appeared to improve on that game as the season went along, and the mandate from Brett Brown to push the ball up court at all costs probably also inflated those giveaways. Finally, his free throw rate (number of free throws per field goal attempt) was second only to Chris Paul during his rookie year. Given his size, Carter-Williams should often be able to get into the paint and draw fouls against small guards. That area of his game projects as a consistent source of scoring for him even on nights when his shaky outside shooting isn’t there.

Ultimately, given the circumstances of the tanking season and the talent level he was surrounded with, Carter-Williams did a remarkable job during his rookie year. Following the trade deadline, opposing defenses were only concentrating on him, Thad Young, and what night club they were hitting up after the game, and he still managed to have some impressive performances toward the end of the season. Should MCW ‘s year be compared to the greatest rookie seasons of all-time? No, not by a long shot. But with continued growth and some better teammates around him, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could be joining his point guard peers at the all-star game before too long.