The latest installment of the Civil War is leaving state lines. With the men’s basketball PAC-12 conference tournament tipping off in Las Vegas today, employers in the state of Oregon may want to send everyone home a little earlier than usual. At 6pm (Pacific Time), the Oregon Ducks and the Oregon State Beavers will play each other in the lower half of the bracket, with the winner earning the right to play UCLA on Thursday.
Most seasons, this matchup would have little interest outside of the most extreme fans. The Ducks, coming off an appearance in last year’s Sweet Sixteen, have enjoyed more recent success than their northern rival, but even with that finish there are few outside of the northwest that expect a repeat occurrence. The Beavers, on the other hand, have been virtually the same mess of disappointment over the last number of years. Their trend of early-season success being derailed by poor play once the conference schedule begins has once again played out. If Oregon State is eliminated in their first game of the conference tournament, the program should seriously consider if Craig Robinson has made enough progress to justify keeping him as the coach of the team.
On the surface, 7-seed Oregon and 10-seed Oregon State appear very similar. They split their season series against each other, with each team winning on their home floor. The Ducks were slightly over .500 in conference play (10-8) while the Beavers were slightly under (8-10). They each played poorly against ranked teams, as the Ducks won only one of three matchups versus top 25 teams and the Beavers managed to lose all three of their games against ranked teams.
Yet, a closer look shows the direction in which each team is headed. Fans of Oregon State will not be comforted to know that the Beavers have mustered only three wins in their last nine games, while the Ducks are currently on a streak of seven straight wins (including a victory over #3 Arizona). The Ducks are scoring more than 82 points per game, good for ninth in the country, while the Beavers only score a little more than 75 points per game.
The Ducks, at 22-8 overall, have a better record than the Beavers, who finished at 16-14. The Ducks are playing hot right now, and they have a more potent offense than the Beavers. As a 7-seed in the PAC-12 tournament, the Ducks are more dangerous than that seeding reflects. Despite finishing as the third-best team in the conference based upon overall record, they finished the year tied with four other teams for the tournament seeding. Once the tiebreaker procedure was worked out, the Ducks drew the shortest stick and ended up with the 7-seed, while Arizona State and California were given a first-round bye due to being slotted as the 3-seed and the 4-seed.
So why should Beaver fans be hopeful for tonight’s game?
While Oregon State lost 14 games this season, eight of those were by six points or less. The Beavers had multiple games decided by late turnovers and mental mistakes, and are most likely better than their record shows. If only two of their ten conference losses (six of which finished within two possessions) had gone the other way, the Beavers would have been in the mix for that first round bye.
More importantly though, is how the Beavers played against the Ducks in their two regular-season matchups. The first game was in Corvallis, and the Beavers won both halves en route to an eight-point victory. Roberto Nelson led all scorers with 22 points, and Eric Moreland logged a double-double as he worked on both ends of the court, scoring 15 points and pulling down 13 rebounds. In the rematch, nearly a month later, the Beavers watched helplessly as Oregon sank their first seven three-point shots and cruised to a 19-point lead less than ten minutes into the game. Oregon State spent the rest of the game whittling away at that lead, eventually losing by ten points.
To put it simply, over the course of two meetings, the Beavers outplayed the Ducks by 17 points over 70 minutes of gameplay.
In tonight’s game, look for three point shooting to be the deciding factor in who wins. In the first game between these programs this year, the Ducks lost as they shot 4-19 from long range. The second matchup, where they began the game 7-7 on three point shots and held a 19 point lead in the first ten minutes, the Ducks spent the next thirty minutes shooting 4-14 from deep and watching the Beavers crawl back into the game.
Oregon began this season as a ranked team, one that hoped to again make a run deep into March. The disappointing losses they have endured that dropped them from the elite had seemed to deflate the team at the midpoint of the season. Their recent run of victories may have filled their sails once again, but tonight they play an Oregon State team with nothing to lose. The Beavers have known for weeks now that the only way they could make the Big Dance would be to win the PAC-12 tournament, and while I don’t think they have enough juice to run the table, I think they pull the first round upset tonight and send the Ducks home early.
Oregon State 82, Oregon 76
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