Yes, its true. The Coug-A-Sutra does rank me as the 3rd best coach in college football.
Hello Followers. Hope you’ve had a terrific week!
Last Friday, our favorite blogger (Aimeable) offered such a terrific Homecoming post that I plumb forgot to post my weekly picks until it was too late! And that was too bad, because two weeks ago, I had a perfect weekend. And last week, my only error was picking BYU to beat Utah 35-17. So, even though I started a bit late in picking games for all Pac-12 teams, my record on the season (straight up), now stands at 19-2, 3-1 picking the Cougs (I've picked us to win every stinking game. HOMER ALERT!!!!!).
So, the good news is that I’m off to a good start. The bad news is that this week feels like the start to a major slide. Continue reading for my weekly game pick for the Cougs and the rest of the conference..
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Followers, a few weeks ago I picked us to beat the venerable Auburn Tigers on the road. The main concern I had for that one: A slow start.
Four weeks later, we now find ourselves at 3-1, playing a road game (as the home team) against the #5 team in the country. Mind you, Stanford is not your typical #5 that looks like they might contend if other teams lose. This group has been picked by notables as a team that will WIN the National Title at season’s end. And, as I wrote earlier in the week, this is the first time since 2006 that a WSU team has entered a contest against a National contender with a winning record.
For that reason, as the game has gotten close, I’ve found myself gripping more and more about whether or not we can make this one respectable. And frankly, I can’t for the life of me get a 37-13 Stanford victory out of my head. And the reasons for that angst are pretty simple: (a) Stanford is really good on both sides of the ball; (b) We have Stanford’s attention based on the way we played them last year; and (c) We REALLY have Stanford’s attention because of the way that the Washington loss last year at C-Link ruined their chances at a BCS title.
On top of that, when a program has been to three straight BCS bowl games, they have done so because they know how to take care of business week to week. In other words, for Stanford’s guys, every game is a big game—not only because they know they’re going to get everyone’s best shot, but because any stumble ruins their primary goal of perfection.
I HATE her choice of shoes!!!!!
So, when the game starts on Saturday night in the rain, you can bet that Stanford will be as cold as ice about what they’re going to do and how they’re going to do it. I mean, the lights aren’t going to seem brighter for them. It will be just another game and another opportunity to get a week closer to their ultimate goal…
Of course, Stanford’s steely disposition stands in contrast to what our guys must be feeling about now. And while I am 100% sure that we are licking our chops for the opportunity to show what we’re made of, our enthusiasm carries several dangers—especially if it leads us to get overhyped. And truly, we’ve seen us come out over-excited for two straight weeks. Two weeks ago, it was our D against Idaho that seemed like they came out in a daze (Those of you who have played overhyped before know that emotion can actually make you play slow and flat). Then last week, it was Connor and our offense that took an entire quarter to settle down.
And frankly, start jittery and out of sorts against Stanford, and we will find ourselves buried in a 14-0 hole just like ASU last week. And truly, that is my fear for this game—that it will be over before it even really gets started.
My other fear has to do with our ability to defend Stanford’s play action. To be sure, that play action passing game is only going to work if Stanford finds itself in positive down and distance on second and third. So, if it’s 3rd and 3, the play action could be lethal. If its 3rd and 8? Maybe not so much.
So, the game will rest not only our ability to stay physical across the D-Line, but to take enough chances to get them in a few 3rd and 10 or 3rd and 12 situations so we can get them off the field. To do that, we’re going to need to blitz every know and then. So, I think Breske’s play calling is going to have a huge impact on this game. If he plays too conservative, I don’t think we’ll have a chance.
And offensively? Well, outside of HUGE concerns about the first quarter, I think we’re going to settle in. After watching some replays this week, I am convinced that Stanford’s defense is not better than USC’s. And frankly, I don’t think they’re as well coached as SC’s defense either. And so, while I don’t think that we’re going to eclipse the 27 or 30 point barrier this week, I do think we’ll be able to put together 21-24 points IF we’re given enough possessions to figure it all out.
So, for me, it comes down to the first half. Can we keep our poise and take advantage of Ed Reynolds being out? Can our defense hold the Trees to 13 or fewer points in the first half? If the answer is “yes,” then this team is going to shock the world on Saturday night.
And ultimately, I think it’s gonna happen—even if my gut begs me to predict otherwise. I think we’re going to see a hybrid of the Auburn and SC games where our D bends but doesn’t break and our offense does just enough to get it done. And again, we’re all going to witness how important it is to have an All-Conference kicker, because Furney is going to win this one late for us once again while Stanford’s kicker is going to miss a key one.
Cougs win in the rain 23-21 setting up a colossal let down loss to Cal next week in Berkeley. That outcome, I am 1000% sure of.
The rest of Pac:
ASU 17 USC 9. Lane officially enters the tub after his offense musters only 9 (with a missed PAT) for the Trojans while giving 10 directly to the Sun Devils.
Oregon 48 CAL 31. CAL fans pull a WSU and get giddy over losing by only 17 to the Quack.
OSU 41 Colorado 31. Mannion continues to put up Heisman numbers while Richardson gets 200 yards receiving for the Buffs.
Washington 27 Arizona 13. Washington finds that its offense isn’t as far along as it thought. Arizona finds that you can’t run the ball in this league when other teams can freely stack the box.
That’s all I have for today. Enjoy the games tomorrow.
And let’s Go Cougs!
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