Depth Stars – Offense

Alright, before I begin this series, I admit that I have only ever seen two Star Wars movies – and of those two, I remember the plots to zero of them.  Luckily for you (and this blog) however, I do know a thing-or-two about football, recruiting and math.

As I am sure you are all aware, the major recruiting sites all tend to give out ‘star’ ratings to high school prospects, with ESPN being the latest to jump on board the star-giving bandwagon.  These stars are what many fans have to base their favorite team’s recruiting efforts on, unless they have the time and understanding to watch every prospect’s film.

The question that remains, however, is whether or not these star ratings are at all accurate.  To investigate, NittanyLionsDen.com has “Boldly Gone Where No Man Has Gone Before.”   Or…something like that…

Our first duty of business is to examine the Penn State roster.  What would the Nittany Lion depth chart look like if the highest-rated players always started, and how does that chart compare to the Lions we will see on the field this fall?

To figure this out, each player has been given a Star Wars (SW) rating.  This rating comes from the average number of stars a player received between Rivals and Scout, plus .5 for each year he has been in the program.  The greater the SW rating, the better the player should be if the star system is accurate.  Today we have the offense:

Quarterback:

In the Real World:  If you haven’t heard, Penn State is in the middle of a quarterback competition featuring Robert Bolden and Matt McGloin.

But if Stars were accurate: There is still a quarterback controversy, but Bolden (4.5 SW) and McGloin (1.5) are both riding the pine.  Paul Jones (5) and Kevin Newsome (5) are battling it out every day in practice to be the 2011 starting QB.

What Happened?  Paul Jones may or may not have the ability to be the Penn State starting quarterback this fall, but it doesn’t matter as he is taking a year off of the depth chart to focus on his grades.  Nobody is really sure why Newsome never made a starting appearance in Blue and White, but internet rumors have blamed it on his accuracy and misunderstanding of the playbook.  Regardless, he has recently made the decision to leave the team and possibly find a vacant quarterback spot elsewhere.  The end result is a lousy rating for the Stars.

Stars Grade:  F

Running Back:

In the Real World: True sophomore Silas Redd figures to be the starter, with Brandon Beachum getting a substantial amount of carries.

But if Stars were accurate: Everything stays about the same.  Brandon Beachum (5.5) figures to be the starter, with Stephfon Green (5) and Silas Redd (5) both getting a substantial amount of carries.

What Happened?  To be fair, we could almost remove Beachum’s final .5 boost as he spent a year rehabbing from a nasty knee injury.  Furthermore, we are all only speculating that Silas Redd will be the starter based on a few flashy moves in 2010.  Also, Green was expected to carry a fair load before it was announced that he may not be returning from Joe’s Doghouse.  Regardless, the stars predicted the RB race pretty closely.

Stars Grade:  A-

Fullback:

In the Real World: Joe Suhey and Michael Zordich should both see playing time as part of the best FB tandem in the B1G.

But if Stars were accurate:  Zordich (5.5) would see a bulk of the snaps at fullback with Glenn Carson (5) and Zach Zwinak (4.5) sitting behind him.  Joe Suhey (4) does not get to see the field.

What Happened?  Zordich is about where he was projected, but Joe Suhey has found a niche by being a receiving fullback.  Glenn Carson was out for a year with a back injury and has practiced at both the LB and FB position.  Zach Zwinak is expected to practice this spring after suffering through an ACL injury and a bout with gout.

Stars Grade: B

Wide Receiver:

In the Real World: Derek Moye is projected to begin his campaign for the Big Ten’s top receiver, and will be surrounded by the supporting cast of Devon Smith and Justin Brown.  If Curtis Drake is healthy, he too should make significant contributions.

But if Stars were accurate: Well, about the same exact thing.  Moye (5.5) starts, Brown (5) is behind him and five receivers obtain a 4 SW rating, including Smith.  Other WRs with 4 SWs include AJ Price, Brandon Moseby-Felder, Shawney Kersey and Bill Belton. (Didn’t Price transfer out? Why mention him?) (Where is Drake?)

What Happened?  Just about what was expected.  Besides AJ Price leaving the team for academic reasons, the WR corps looks to have been correctly predicted by the stars.

Stars Grade: A

Tight End:

In the Real World: Well, nobody knows.  Garry Gilliam is out with an injury, which leaves us with some combination of Kevin Haplea, Andrew Szczerba, Nate Cadogan and Michael Yancich.  Szczerba, if healthy, or Haplea is projected to start.

But if Stars were accurate:  We should be fine.  Szczerba (5.5) is a superstar, backed up by Mark Wedderburn (5).  Haplea (4) and Cadogan (4) bring adequate depth.

What Happened?  Szczerba has spent most of his Penn State career nursing a back injury, Wedderburn never displayed the ability or size that the stars promised and Haplea simply has not put on the necessary weight yet to play TE.  Because of these, Cadogan has been moved over from OT and Yancich from LB to see if anybody would like to step up at TE for the Nittany Lions.

Stars Grade: Tough to say, but we’ll give them a B- until they prove otherwise

Offensive Line:

In the Real World:  The offensive line is set and ready to go.  It looks like this:
LT – Quinn Barham
LG – John Urschel
C – Matt Stankiewitch
RG – Johnnie Troutman
RT – Chima Okoli

But if Stars were accurate: The offensive line is set and ready to go.  It looks like this:
LT- Eric Shrive (5.5)
LG- Miles Dieffenbach (4.5)
C- Matt Stankiewitch (5)
RG- DeOn’tae Pannell (5)
RT: Chima Okoli (5)

What Happened?  Quinn Barham (4.5) has taken advantage of the fact that only one of Penn State’s recent OL recruits has stepped up.  That recruit is obviously John Urschel (3) who has been turning heads since last pre-season.  Eric Shrive has not been heard of, and DeOn’tae Pannell apparently lacks the mean-streak necessary to compete on the offensive line.

Stars Grade: C

Stars Offensive GPA: 2.56

For the defensive grades and a conclusion, come back tomorrow!