Star Wars: Episode Three

Episode Three – Schedule and Standings

Welcome to Episode III of our Star Wars series, which goes in depth to determine what the world would look like if recruiting ‘stars’ meant everything in college football.  So far we have stayed pretty close to home, determining what Penn State’s depth chart would look like if the higher rated prospects always started.  You can check out the offense Here, and the defense Here.

Today though, we are going to look at every team on Penn State’s schedule and compare who would win if the better star ratings were always victorious.

It should be noted that it is nearly impossible to factor in every single variable (injuries, transfers, early NFL entrees, etc.)  Because of this, we decided to focus on what should give us the best overall representation.  We did this by following the same Star Wars (SW) rating we used in the past two episodes.  In this episode that rating includes average star rating per class, as well as the number of athletes were members of each class.  For the full equation, click Here.

Also, to understand the rest of the article, it would be pretty helpful to know that the Nittany Lions obtained a SW of 4.04.  Check out where that lands them this season below.

Indiana State:  Unfortunately, the Sycamores do not have star rankings on either of the two recruiting websites that we used to compile the SW ratings (Rivals, Scout).  So, for as sure as I am that they have quality athletes, I think we’re just going to tally this up as number 402 for JoePa and move to week two.

Penn State: 1-0

Alabama: 4.71.  This is the highest score that Penn State will encounter during the 2011 season, and if recruiting stars mean everything, this will be an easy Tide victory.

Penn State: 1-1

Temple: 2.93.  A week after taking on the most highly recruited squad on their schedule, the Nittany Lions face the three least recruited teams they will see all season.  The first of which is Temple, who the Stars say Penn State should handle easily.

Penn State: 2-1

Eastern Michigan: 2.81.  In week four’s Big Ten-MAC Challenge, Penn State faces a team that will need to over-achieve its recruiting stars to compete in Beaver Stadium.

Penn State: 3-1

Indiana: 3.18.  Coach Wilson will have a difficult first season at IU as he inherits one of the least recruited squads in the BigTen.  If recruiting stars mean anything, Penn State should improve their record in their first BigTen match.

Penn State: 4-1

Iowa: 3.47.  Iowa’s reign over Penn State has been well documented, but it has not transferred over to the recruiting trail.  According to Rivals and Scout, Penn State should win this handedly.

Penn State: 5-1

Purdue: 3.36.  Penn State should not have a difficult time defeating Leaders Division foe Purdue based on their recruited athletes.

Penn State: 6-1

Northwestern: 3.35.  Pat Fitzgerald may be doing a good job on the field, but he has not been doing it with better athletes.  The Nittany Lions should be the bigger, faster team on the field in Evanston this fall.

Penn State: 7-1

Illinois: 3.54.  Illinois will be the highest recruited BigTen opponent Penn State has faced to date, although that mark will be reset over each of the next two matches.  Still, Joe Paterno and company have a half-star advantage over the Illini.

Penn State: 8-1

Nebraska: 3.95.  Welcome to Red November, Penn State fans.  When Nebraska visits Happy Valley this fall, they will bring the most recruited athletes Penn State has seen since Alabama.  Still, Joe Paterno has been a great recruiter over the past four years, and according to star ratings, should be up to the task of winning.

Penn State: 9-1

Ohio State: 4.41.  Finally, after starting the BigTen season 6-0, Penn State has finally met its recruited match in Ohio State, who holds more than a .3 SW advantage over Penn State.

Penn State: 9-2

Wisconsin: 3.64.  Wisconsin may be ranked higher than Penn State in the pre-season polls, but they have not been ranked higher in recruiting.

Penn State: 10-2

Final BigTen Standings:

Leaders:

Ohio State (4.41)
Penn State (4.04)
Wisconsin (3.64)
Illinois (3.54)
Purdue (3.36)
Indiana (3.18)

Legends:

Michigan (4.19)
Nebraska (3.95)
Michigan State (3.71)
Minnesota (3.59)
Iowa (3.47)
Northwestern (3.35)

Conclusions:

-Many Penn State fans have used Joe Paterno’s lack of recruiting ability as a reason why he must leave to help the Penn State program.  This is simply not true, as he has recruited the third best team in the BigTen.

-If Penn State didn’t add any more prospects to their 2012 class, they would still begin next year with a 4.17 SW.  Again, contrary to popular belief, the Nittany Lions have been very successful on the recruiting trail.

-Alabama (and the rest of the SEC) benefits greatly from over-signing.  The ability to weed out whoever they would like creates a huge advantage.

-Many Penn State fans believe that Pat Fitzgerald can be the future of the program, in part because they believe he can be a great recruiter.  Although it may be harder to recruit at Northwestern, the Wildcats have the lowest SW rating in the Legends division.

-The Legends division has much more recruiting parity this season than the Leaders

-Penn State has recruited 77 athletes over the past four years.  Only Northwestern (72) has recruited fewer in the BigTen.  Illinois and Minnesota top the conference at 99 each over the past four years.