Starting 1-0 under Sean Payton is a primary factor in success for Saints and history shows it

Admittedly this title at face value is little clickbaity and over dramatized. But in reality, I mean it as emphatically as it sounds. I had an idea in my mind of how significant the differences were, but digging deeper into the actual numbers the statistics are too shocking to ignore. It’s really simple in the Sean Payton era for the Saints – start 1-0 and you’re 80% sure you are going to the playoffs. Start 0-1 and it’s the exact opposite, 80% sure you’re not going. I hate to simplify it like this but the numbers are pretty clear, the Saints have to start the season by beating the Raiders at home. If they do, they’re 1-0, and Sean Payton history suggests it’ll be a good season. If they lose, they’re 0-1 and “7-9 here we come”.

Unbelievably, the Saints have never had a losing season under Sean Payton in 10 years when they start 1-0. They’ve done it 5 times (half) and their record is 53-27 in those seasons with 4 out of 5 seasons being playoff berths. When the Saints have started 0-1, they’ve had a losing season 4 out of 5 times and they’ve only been to the playoffs once. Their record in those seasons is 41-39.

Now obviously the 5 times going 1-0 or 0-1 accounts for five games boosting the records. What’s incredible, though, is how that first game dictates the rest of the year.  When the Saints start 1-0, their record in the remaining 15 games is 48-27. That’s a win total of 64%. If they lose the first game, they’ve gone 41-34 afterwards, which is a win total of 54.7%. So the result of the team’s first game has a ~10% win/loss swing effect on the remaining 15 games. In a 16 game season, 10% is enormous. It’s the difference between making the playoffs and not.

Based on that, it’s pretty clear what the Saints must do to have a good season. Start well and start well very early. They have to beat the Raiders at home to start the season. Not doing it isn’t a death sentence and doing it guarantees nothing, but pretty close to. If you’re a odds/betting person 80% either way is very significant.