Throughout the draft season, rumors about character, draft projection, player-team fits and much more begin to filter out into the public. With “smoke screen season” coinciding with NFL Draft season, it’s hard to believe everything that’s released.
Below are many of the insights I’ve heard from sources, players and others involved in draft process. Some of my thoughts in this “State of the Draft” are my own opinions, but they should be clearly delineated.
All that being said, here’s my first-of-the-season “State of the Draft”, including the decision the Bucs have, Winston’s almost-plan at Florida State, team-quarterback matching, plenty of insight on Dorial Green-Beckham, and much, much more.
2014’s “State of the Drafts” – Feb 26 – Apr 11 – May 7
-Before the Combine, I was of the mind that Marcus Mariota was firmly in the mix for the Bucs. I was told that the Bucs front office and scouting department feels Jameis Winston is a better option than Mariota by a wind margin, but Lovie Smith will have final say. Based on his hard stance in the past against domestic violence and off-field issues in general, Winston’s character evaluation will be critical for the Bucs selection. If Lovie’s cool with his past, he’ll be the pick, and most feel it’s all but a shoe-in.
-There was a real feeling that Winston was going to stay in school this year and play baseball for the Seminoles and not declare for the 2015 NFL Draft. So much so that, up until just a day before he declared, I was told he was considering an option of staying in school, playing the baseball season, then leaving school so he could enter the Supplemental Draft. While that rumor never had a chance to come to fruition, it does show that his desire to continue his baseball career is legitimate. The feeling is that he will one day continue his baseball career, and the team that drafts him needs to keep that in mind.
-The Eagles are the team everyone considers to be the trade up candidate for Marcus Mariota, but the Saints, Texans and Broncos all could attempt the move up to secure the Oregon passer. Saints and Broncos especially may be interested, as they both considered drafting/trading up for one of the top passers just a draft ago.
-Speaking of the Broncos, assuming they don’t make a mega move up for Mariota/Winston, what will they do this off-season to plan past Manning? The two names I’ve heard linked: Jake Locker in free agency, and Bryce Petty. Petty needs a legitimate redshirt year before he can really be viewed as a quarterback option for a team, but he’ll get that in Denver. I’m personally not a fan of Petty as a top-5 QB in this class, but he may be considered by the Broncos in the top-three rounds.
-I simply don’t understand why there isn’t more desire to trade for Mike Glennon. He was a 3rd round pick two drafts ago, he’s shown his arm talent produce at the NFL level, and he’s better than almost every free agent option available. The Browns, Rams and Chargers should all have interest.
-The diminished value of Glennon along with other young back-up quarterbacks may have an impact on teams looking to “stash” quarterbacks for future picks. The Packers and Patriots have done it in the past, and the Packers and Seahawks could look to do it in the 2015 class.
-I wrote a background piece on Dorial Green-Beckham over at Sporting News. If that isn’t concerning enough, here’s what I couldn’t say there: He was caught with weed on two separate occasions, once with a pound, arrested just once, and those chargers were dropped. Concerns over potential failed drug test at Missouri that may have been swept away linger. As it was described to me, he “Manziel’d” and “Mathieu’d” Missouri, allowing him to have more influence and less restrictions on his behavior because of his star power. His history of getting away with offenses with minimal penalties and his domestic violence incident at Missouri is awfully concerning.
-Staying with DGB, I’ve heard that his domestic violence issue stemmed his girlfriend caught cheating on him with his teammate. At Oklahoma, “lazy” and “serious bad attitude” were some of the words described to me about his time there by someone close to the program. I was told the story that he left Oklahoma because his offensive coordinator left doesn’t seem accurate, and it’s more likely that this was his plan all along, as his mother/brother need medical bill assistance. Others I have spoken with have vouched for him as a good kid deep down with a strong support structure now that just made some poor decisions. Still it should be hard for teams to overlook these repeated concerns.
-Final notes on DGB: I’ll be shocked if he’s a first-rounder. That would really take balls for a team to pull the trigger. He’ll likely be viewed as a throw-away pick: don’t expect anything out of him, and if he works out, it’s simply gravy. I can’t see a team viewing that as first-round worthy, regardless of his elite skill set. My best guess now: 2nd or 3rd round to the Baltimore Ravens, where he can get away from the state Missouri and be mentored by Torrey Smith, who comes from a similar rough background.
-Pre-Combine, I was told that Andrus Peat and Shane Ray are viewed quite highly by teams, and highly expected to land in the top-10 picks. While that may have changed for Ray (21st at my most recent mock draft, but I’d expect him to go much higher), Peat did nothing to add concerns there. He’s the favorite to be the first tackle taken for me, but it’s not by much. My mostly arbitrary odds below:
Peat: 3/1
La’el Collins: 7/2
Brandon Scherff: 7/2
TJ Clemmings: 4/1
Ereck Flowers: 6/1
Field: 20/1
-For what it’s worth, I’ve heard Peat was close to Leonard Williams grade for West Coast scouts. Shocking to me, but both have elite upside. Also, some on the coaching staff at Missouri feels that Markus Golden and Ray are on a level playing field. Golden’s Combine may give some pause, but it’s certainly strong praise for Golden.
-Thus far, nothing has come out about failed drug tests at the NFL Combine, but I have heard at least one top-10 projected pick being tied to marijuana use during his college career. It’ll be interesting to see how many players are tied to marijuana use in college, and if that’ll play any role in their NFL future so long as they don’t test positive at the NFL Combine.
-My sense is teams in this class will mostly value high risk/high reward guys or very safe picks early in the draft. The high risk guys include the QBs, Andrus Peat, Vic Beasley, Alvin Dupree. The two leading safer, lower-upside options, Danny Shelton and Brandon Scherff, are fringe first round options for us, but will go higher. I’d rather Jordan Phillips over Shelton, Jake Fisher over Scherff.
-With many NFL teams getting wise about using athletic analytics, especially for pass rushers, look for teams to further boost the value of Vic Beasley and Alvin Dupree. With the Jaguars and Falcons having ties to the Seattle method of valuing athletic testing and needing pass rush help, I’d be surprised if at least one of Beasley/Dupree ends up being selected by Jacksonville or Atlanta.
–Marcus Smith was NOT a Chip Kelly pick a season ago, and only Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff were purely based off what Chip Kelly wanted. Why is that important? I’d put less stock into any past Eagles picks while Kelly has been there when projecting what they may do in 2015.
-If Oakland can land Randall Cobb in free agency (which I firmly expect), adding a running back and receiver in the middle rounds of the draft may be all they need to do to get Derek Carr in position to succeed in his second year. A Leonard Williams-Marcus Peters-Sammy Coats-Mike Davis start to the draft is possible.
-Some of “My Guys” this year that I’d like to be associated with as having taking a strong liking to: David Johnson, Jaelen Strong, Devin Funchess, Jake Fisher, and Jalen Collins.
-My guess/predictions for QB landing spots in the 2015 draft:
Winston– Bucs; Mariota – Jets; Hundley – Saints; Petty – Broncos; Grayson – Titans.
-A few dark-horse candidates to be late-first round picks: Justin Hardy, Donovan Smith, Stephone Anthony, Kevin Johnson, Jaquiski Tartt. Also, I don’t expect Byron Jones to be a first-rounder, despite his mind-boggling Combine.
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