Entering the All-Star break, the Angels hold just a half game lead over the Houston Astros. At first glance, this appears to be a two team race, but upon closer investigation, we see that while it isn’t wide open, the AL West will likely find itself having five teams competing for a playoff spot.
In last place and 8.5 games back we have the Oakland A’s. They have Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir and likely Josh Reddick on the trade block right now and it’d be a shock if any player on the A’s isn’t traded. That’s just how their GM Billy Beane operates. But given recent history, we also know how the A’s as an on-the-field team operate. They just keep winning when they shouldn’t be. Barring last year’s collapse, the A’s are generally one of those teams that goes and wins 20 games early in the second half to catapult themselves into the playoff conversation. They may trade away half their roster this deadline, and we’ll still see a group of AAA players go on an unexpected run.
Projected Wins: 78 (according to Baseball Prospectus)
Scotty’s Predicted Wins: 78
Next, we have the Seattle Mariners, 7.5 GB of our Angels. The Mariners were an early season favorite to go all the way this year, and who can blame the pundits? The Angels and A’s narrative has been done, the Rangers are so 2012. The Astros are going to be 2017. That leaves the M’s and all the exciting moves they made to put themselves into contention. Except it hasn’t worked out. On paper, they should be good, but in real life we see a team with little offense, a shaky bullpen and no rotation depth. But when it comes to teams with talent, sometimes it’s just a matter of time before they erupt. Theoretically, the Mariners can still do that. Cano, Cruz, Seager, Trumbo and Smith are a pretty good group of hitters. King Felix and Taijuan Walker can really shut down the opposition. Carson Smith is a great reliever. Plus you know the Mariners are going to hedge their bet and add someone at the deadline.
Projected Wins: 78
Scotty’s Predicted Wins: 81
In third place are the Texas Rangers, who have come in as a bit of surprise so far, trailing the Angels by a manageable 6 games. I believe this is a bit of smoke and mirrors and that the angels themselves will inevitably start playing up to their abilities, and not a better team’s abilities. Outside of Prince Fielder, there just isn’t a ton of offense here, despite having some big names like Choo, Beltre, Andrus and Hamilton. The Rangers likely have a bright future with guys like Rougned Odor leading the way, but I just have a hard time believing 2015 is he year for their return to prominence.
Projected Wins: 77 wins
Scotty’s Predicted Wins: 70
In second place and only a half game back are the surprise Houston Astros, who appear to have hit their stride a couple years earlier than anticipated. This likely has a lot to do with their manager A.J. Hinch, but also the incredible campaign youngsters like George Springer and Carlos Correa have been on. The Astros have had very good performances in their rotation by Keuchel and McCullers, and their bullpen has been better than it has been in at least 5 years.
It’s also highly likely the Astros will be buying at the trade deadline. They’re in the midst of playoff race and have the young talent to be in a similar poisiton for the next few years. They also have unrivaled payroll flexibility right now, as a team that’s relatively cheap but has the money to compete as a big market team. That’s a scary thought. So it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see the Astros land someone like Cole Hamels to add to an already solid rotation. But there is reason to believe a downfall is coming.
The Astros have been great in the first half, so much that they may have played over their collective heads. This is a team that hits a ton of HR’s but also breaks records in the amount they swing and miss. Chances are this team is about to swing and miss a little more than anticipated. They lost George Springer to a broken wrist. Springer has been their best player and is an absolute beast on the field. But if you think he’s going to come back from a broken wrist and pick up where he left off, you’re kidding yourself. It just doesn’t happen quickly for hitters. David Ortiz had a two year long slump after wrist issues. Wil Myers went from one of the best young OF’s in the game to a bit of a bust because of his hurt wrist. Myers did rebound this year only to hurt his wrist again. Springer is likely done performing this year, and probably a good portion of next year too.
Carlos Correa has had a good run as well, but MLB pitchers are likely now going to adjust to his strengths as a hitter and find ways to get him out. He’ll need to readjust soon. It just happens with young players. They get red hot and then go in the freezer. He’ll figure it out because he’s a great young talent, but less production in the second half is a likely scenario.
Luis Valbuena has also hit more HR’s in the first half than he had in any season over his entire career. We’ll see if that’s sustainable.
Projected Wins: 86
Scotty’s Predicted Wins 85
And finally, our Angels. As you likely know, the offense has been flat out bad almost the entire first half. Outside of Trout and Pujols, there just hasn’t been anything, until the last couple weeks when for some reason, the Angels inexplicably caught fire. Iannetta, Freese, Cron have tragically underperformed, Matt Joyce has been a disaster in LF and while Giavotella is a man you want up in big situations, he has big shoes to fill in Howie Kendrick. Hector Santiago has pitched way over his head and we’ve seen Huston Street and Joe Smith come back to earth, along with relatively dismal first half’s from Fernando Salas and Mike Morin.
Off the field issues have been a problem too. Jerry Dipoto is gone and in his place we have Bill Stoneman, who we still aren’t sure if he’s in charge of if he’s keeping the seat warm. If Stoneman is in charge, it’s a good bet the Angels will do nothing at the deadline as no GM in the recent history of baseball has likely been as averse to trading as Stoneman.
Alas, there is some hope for the Angels. Iannetta, Freese, Aybar and Cron all started hitting before the break, which coincided with them winning 13 of their last 16 games. Trout was already great and right now he’s on pace for his best offensive campaign yet. Albert Pujols is healthy, and good things happen when he’s healthy. The Angels will likely see a return to form from Garrett Richards down the stretch, Andrew Heaney has been added to the rotation and Trevor Gott has emerged in the bullpen. This appears to be a team that’s going to get better, even if they stumble out of the All-Star gate as they are known to do.
Projected Wins: 87
Scotty’s Predicted Wins 91
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