A month removed from the 2015 draft’s first “State of the Draft”, it returns in late March with more clarity on which teams are looking at which quarterbacks, what the Browns, Eagles, Raiders and Ravens are thinking, among others, and projecting where the non-pass rushing defensive linemen may end up on draft day.
–Even though we’re still over a month out from the draft, it’s rare to see this much cluelessness as to where Marcus Mariota will land. Titans are highly unlikely and baiting for a trade. The Jets appear to be of the mindset towards a playoff push in year one, and would rather see what they have in Geno Smith for one last year. The Redskins have leaked interest, but no one I’ve talked to believes that interest is legitimate.
-The most linked team for Mariota is the Browns, which is remarkable considering Manziel is on the roster. The team offered a 1st for Sam Bradford a few weeks ago, which is a clear sign they’re willing to move on. It’s also important to keep in mind that Ray Farmer wasn’t the one who wanted Johnny Manziel, and reportedly Jim Haslam will be hands off this year for sure. Farmer has gotten a lot of backlash, but if you eliminate Manziel (not his pick) and Justin Gilbert (heavily influenced by Mike Pettine), it was a very strong draft for Cleveland last year.
-On the Cleveland note, the team’s signing of Tramon Williams opened up some questions about Justin Gilbert. In short, the coaching staff is split on Gilbert, but he’ll get the benefit of the doubt. With Williams basically on a two year deal and having most of his value in the slot, he doesn’t have much impact on Gilbert long-term. Gilbert will battle with Pierre Desir and K’waun Williams for the 3rd cornerback spot, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see one of the latter two win. We had Desir ranked ahead of Justin Gilbet in the 2014 NFL Draft.
-Back to Mariota. The current thought is that the Titans at #2 is the spot for a trade up, but I’ve heard the Raiders and Redskins are also actively looking to trade down. Two drafts ago, the Raiders moved from #3 to #12 without asking for too much (only a second rounder. I’d expect a similar situation this year.
-I’ve repeatedly heard the Raiders don’t want to draft a receiver at #4 overall if possible. It doesn’t fit their board or value, despite it being a need, but they may have to if they can’t trade down. Ideally, the Raiders want to trade down to the teens to add a 2nd round pick, drafting a receiver or a defensive end (Shane Ray?). The Raiders do want to add a receiver in the first two rounds, but getting an edge player may be more important. In the second-round (or late-first trade-up), look for the Raiders to have serious interest in UCF WR Breshad Perriman and Mississippi State’s Preston Smith.
-Here’s the quarterback-team links I’ve heard after the top two quarterbacks:
Garrett Grayson: Saints, Packers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Broncos
Bryce Petty: Broncos, Chargers
Brett Hundley: Saints, Rams, Chargers
-If the Browns don’t draft Mariota, I don’t expect them to take Brett Hundley or any top quarterback in this class. If they do draft Mariota, I’d guess Manziel quickly goes on the trade block. Dallas?
–Todd Gurley in the top-20? I’d bank on it. Atlanta in a short trade down is a possibility, the Dolphins and Chargers are fits and interested, and if Arizona can’t get Adrian Peterson, don’t rule out them trying to trade up too.
-The three teams that are in position and have a serious willingness to consider Dorial Green-Beckham at this point: Seattle, San Francisco and Baltimore. The feeling is that to draft DGB, you can’t expect him to contribute early, have a role model in mind for him, and be willing to take a major gamble. The Ravens are the longest shot, but may have been the favorites had they not lost Torrey Smith in free agency. The 49ers seem like the new favorite. With Torrey Smith in San Francisco and GM Trent Baalke willing to take risks on character, the 49ers at pick #45 is my projection for DGB. However, the Seahawks have serious interest, including sending a sizeable contingent to his Pro Day, and trading up from the late-2nd to above 45 to secure him (they did get a 4th rounder back from New Orleans).
-The Redskins don’t want to make any waves with their first two picks. Getting an edge player who’s NFL ready like Dante Fowler or a safe offensive lineman like Brandon Scherff fits that mold, and currently I’m expecting one of those two to be the pick if they stay at #5.
-Two late-first round teams to watch in a trade-up scenario to the teens: The Ravens (for a receiver like Jaelen Strong, DeVante Parker) and Panthers (for an offensive lineman).
-Long-term player personnel-wise, no one has a good feel for what the Eagles are building towards. However, I’ve heard they view Jalen Collins highly and still have a need at cornerback. Also, with Todd Hermanns gone and Evan Mathis on the trade block, Jake Fisher of Oregon makes a lot of sense, regardless of the Oregon connection. Until further notice, I’ll be mocking one of those two in the first-round for the Eagles.
-Staying with the Eagles, I highly doubt they’ll consider a receiver in the first round. With Riley Cooper still in place, Jordan Matthews in the slot, and Josh Huff outside, Chip likely doesn’t see a pressing need. On Huff, keep in mind he was the most productive receiver Chip had while at Oregon, and was a 3rd round pick in one of the deepest receiver classes in recent memory. Adding a receiver or two late in the draft is more likely for Philadelphia.
-If Leonard Williams doesn’t go second overall to the Titans (where I currently project him like many others), he may slip on draft day out of the top-six picks. The Jaguars (Jared Odrick), Raiders (CJ Wilson) and Redskins (Stephen Paea) all added to their defensive line this off-season after doing the same a year ago. The Jets are already set at that position for the future. The Bears are desperate for defensive line help, so that’s the lowest he’ll likely fall.
-After Landon Collins (who may slip to the 20s on draft day), there is much debate as to the next safety up. I’ve heard the two most likely names are Jaquiski Tartt of Samford and Damarious Russell of Arizona State. In a weak safety class, both may be thrust up into the early second round area. Tartt is more of a strong safety type, while Russell can play free safety. I still like Eric Rowe more than both.
-Arik Armstead could easily go in the top-10 picks. The Bears are a fit for Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense. The Saints could be a fit too as they’re looking for best player available. I don’t believe he’ll get past the 49ers at pick 15.
-It’s one of the better 3-4 nose tackle classes in recent history. Danny Shelton and Jordan Phillips are likely 1st rounders, Joey Mbu of Houston and Xavier Williams of Northern Iowa are fringe top-100 options, and Terry Williams of East Carolina and Letterius Walton of Central Michigan as 5th-6th rounders.
–Grady Jarrett and Carl Davis shouldn’t be forgotten about in this draft class, as some teams have one or both among the top-5 defensive tackles in this class. Especially the case for Jarrett, who is a darkhorse candidate for a surprise late-first round pick.
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