Just a week away from the 2015 NFL Draft, and there’s still much to dissect about where player values lie, which positions they’re targeting, and what teams could be looking to move up or down in the draft process.
Marcus Mariota’s destination, options for the Titans, Randy Gregory’s fall, second tier quarterback landing spots, Miami (FL) prospect value and surprise first-round contenders all discussed as teams begin to solidify their draft weekend plans.
-While Jameis Winston is all but locked in for the first-overall pick, Marcus Mariota’s destination isn’t as clear. As of now, three scenarios appear to be in play. First, the Chargers and Titans are still working through a deal in which Phillip Rivers is traded for Mariota and an addition pick, which at this point seems like the most likely.
-If a Chargers trade doesn’t occur, the fourth overall pick seems like the next possible spot, as the Browns and Jets both are in the mix. The Browns may be willing to package both their first-round picks to get Mariota, but dropping down to the teens may not be worth it for the Raiders, as they’ll likely miss out on the top-three receivers and Alvin Dupree, the pass-rusher they covet. The Jets appear to be ready to move on from Geno Smith, and while it’s unclear what they’d have to send to move up two spots, it’s possible it doesn’t include their second-round pick.
-While things still may change between now and the draft, here are the seven picks I feel most confident in, if the players are still on the board: Jameis Winston to the Bucs, Dante Fowler to the Jaguars, Alvin Dupree to the Raiders, DeVante Parker to the Vikings, Danny Shelton to the Browns, Breshad Perriman to the Ravens, and Jordan Phillips to the Colts.
-If the Titans don’t trade the second overall pick, Leonard Williams is the most often mocked selection. However, don’t rule out Kevin White as the pick. The Titans have done their due diligence on the top receivers in the class, and if they want to roll with Zach Mettenberger, giving him another top receiving target may offer a quicker return than adding a 5-technique.
-The Dolphins have been often linked to trading up in the draft for a top prospect. The two most likely targets are DeVante Parker to complete their receiving corps or Todd Gurley. The Rams, who are looking to add to their offensive line more than their receiving corps, are the most likely top-10 team to trade down.
-It’s still unclear where Randy Gregory will land on draft day, but I’d bet he doesn’t land in the first-round. Teams have question marks about his marijuana history, failed Combine drug test, effort question marks at the end of his senior season, and overall attitude. He’s the top pass-rusher on film for many teams though, and I don’t expect him to be picked in round two.
-Don’t be surprised if Shane Ray falls out of the top-15 picks, Trae Waynes falls out of the top-20, Landon Collins and Shaq Thompson fall out of the first-round, and Rashad Greene of Florida State falls out of the top-three rounds.
-In the build-up to the draft, two of the top pass-rushers have begun to have some question marks emerge. Some teams have questions about Vic Beasley’s wowing NFL Combine, especially the fact that he added a good amount of weight yet also tested better than he ever had in the past. Teams may be unsure what to make about it. Also, Arik Armstead has some injury concerns that teams have expressed issues with, and may cause a few teams to let him slide on draft day, even though he has top-15 worthy talent.
–Todd Gurley MAY be in play for the Atlanta Falcons at 8. But that’s likely only if Alvin Dupree isn’t available, they have questions about Vic Beasley, and/or Shane Ray isn’t high on their board. Shane Ray isn’t a top-20 prospect for us in the draft, but he’s likely to land somewhere in the top-20 picks.
-After the top two quarterbacks, the favorites for Brett Hundley to the Rams and Bryce Petty to the Broncos, both in round two. Garrett Grayson is a wildcard, but he’s viewed highly by teams enough to merit a second round selection.
-On the quarterbacks, I’d set the over/under at 6.5, and I’d probably lean on the under. In one of the weakest quarterback classes in recent history, I’ve heard teams may punt on the position altogether (leading to potential Mike Glennon/Matt Barkely trades). After the top-five, Sean Mannion is the most likely next one drafted, and there’s a chance one of the “safer” back-up quarterbacks like Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinicke or East Carolina’s Shane Carden gets a late round pick.
-Despite the program still not a national power, it’s expected that five Miami (FL) Hurricanes will be drafted in the top-60 picks: Ereck Flowers and Phillip Dorsett are first-round potentials, with Duke Johnson, Clive Walford and Denzel Perryman all slotted in round two.
-Ameer Abdullah has his fans in the NFL and in the media, but a lack of 3rd down ability, small hands and fumbling issues may push him out of the top-three rounds. I’m expecting running backs Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, and TJ Yeldon all to go before Abdullah, and maybe .Mike Davis and David Johnson too.
-For teams looking for vertical threats, Breshad Perriman tops most lists, but there’s some debate whether Ohio State’s Devin Smith or Miami (FL)’s Phillip Dorsett is the next vertical receiver off the board. Both are likely in the top-50 picks, with both being options in Baltimore if Perriman and a top cornerback aren’t available.
–Gerod Holliman has value to teams as a centerfield safety, especially for teams that run a lot of 5- and 6-defensive back sets, such as Rex Ryan’s. But he’ll be likely the second or third Louisville defensive back drafted.
-The Colts are looking at cornerbacks, offensive linemen and nose tackles early in the draft. All three spots have depth, but nose tackle may be the most pressing to address early in the draft. The Bengals are heavily considering all offensive tackles, as are the Panthers. The Panthers are a prime candidate to trade up to the top-17 picks for Andrus Peat, DJ Humphries or Cedric Ogbuehi.
-With only 15-20 first-round grades across most teams’ board, we’re bound to have more than a few surprise late 1st-round picks. Aside from Nelson Agholor, Phillip Dorsett, and Eric Rowe, who have received buzz as of late, here are some of my surprise possibilities: Miami’s Duke Johnson, Penn State’s Donovan Smith, Iowa’s Carl Davis, and LSU’s Danielle Hunter.
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