Regardless of how talented your favourite hockey team is or how many points separate that same team from others in the standings, all hockey fans share a common bond: we love to complain about lineup combinations and player usage.
Ottawa’s no different in that regard and through the early stretches of this season, it’s been a constant complaint levied against Paul MacLean.
Armchair coaches have criticized his juggling of lines, the allocation of ice time and how specific veterans are afforded every benefit or opportunity imaginable when their juniors are outperforming them in almost every respective facet of the game.
Ottawa’s two most productive players proportionate to the amount of ice time that they’ve received are Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. Hoffman sits atop the team’s leaderboard in goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time (2.40) while Stone leads the team in points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time with 3.03. In each respective category that either player does not lead the team, they rank second in goals per 60 or points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
These rates are inflated in part by how many minutes these players play. Only Erik Condra averages less 5v5 ice time per game than Stone and Hoffman.
They deserve more and it’s not just on the basis of their production alone. They are also own the team’s highest two Corsi For percentages — Hoffman at 53.69 and Stone at 53.45 — amongst regulars on the team.
Sure, these players have benefitted from some favourable relative zone starts and thrived against weaker competition, but at some point, something has to give.
At 5v5 this season, the Senators have scored 23 goals for while allowing 24 goals against. It’s incredible that the team only has a goal differential of -1 considering that they’re only generating 45.17 percent of the shots at 5v5.
With the score close at 5v5, the numbers don’t flatter Ottawa any better. Ottawa’s shot for percentage of 43.05 is the second worst in the league with only the historically bad Buffalo Sabres being worse (39.63).
Where does that number put Ottawa from a historical perspective?
According to War-On-Ice.com’s database that captures data dating back to the 2002-03 season, only six teams have posted inferior SF% at 5v5 close than Ottawa’s 43.05. They are:
– 2003-04 Atlanta Thrashers: 42.94
– 2003-04 Pittsburgh Penguins: 42.90
– 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers: 42.89
– 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres: 41.62
– 2007-08 Atlanta Thrashers: 41.46
– 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres: 39.63
Pretty elite company, right there.
Under MacLean, the Senators have always played “high event hockey”, but unlike in years past, the Senators are no longer winning the possession battle. They have always relied upon the strength of their goaltending to protect them against playing a style that’s conducive to allowing so many shots.
For the better part of this season, Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner have done their part. Should their numbers normalize towards league average rates, dark days lie ahead if the team cannot correct the possession/shot rate problems that plague their team. (Mind you, I’m not convinced that the Senators can have sustained success playing “high event hockey” in the long run or playoffs anyways.)
Now it would probably be unfair to MacLean to hang all of these problems on him, since management was responsible for assembling this roster. Moreover, it’s tough to know how much blame to pin on management when questions over how much pressure ownership puts on management to win now while fretting over ticket sales and the team’s bottom line.
The point is however, MacLean can make better choices to help his own cause because if the offseason foreshadows anything, it’s that the organization will make him their scapegoat should the “old Paul” not be able to get his team into the playoffs.
For whatever reason, MacLean keeps juggling Bobby Ryan, the team’s highest paid forward, and moving him off the team’s first line where he has had success and chemistry before. Last year the combination of Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris and Ryan was one of the most productive in the entire NHL.
This season, Bobby Ryan keeps getting bounced from the Turris line to one with Mika Zibanejad. Granted, MacLean probably looks at this combination on paper and believes that putting one of the team’s best goal scorers on Zibanejad’s wing is a way that he can get his struggling Swedish center going. In truth, Zibanejad might be better served spending time away from “goal scorers” like Alex Chiasson, Milan Michalek and Ryan and playing with wingers who can complement his game and drive puck possession at even strength.
Furthermore, Ryan is best utilized piggybacking his own puck possession drivers in MacArthur and Turris so that he can fill the net. To justify the money that he’s receiving on his new extension, he needs to stop getting handcuffed playing on an ineffective second line where he has had difficulty gelling with Zibanejad.
Instead, I’d like to see MacLean reward Hoffman and Stone’s play by seeing them play more minutes with Zibanejad. Rather than give their entire “kid line” more minutes, this combination would reward Hoffman and Stone while allowing Curtis Lazar to play sheltered minutes as a 19-year old in a checking line capacity.
This would free players like Michalek and Chiasson to play with a veteran center like David Legwand and create a fourth line of Zack Smith, Lazar and Erik Condra/Chris Neil. Obviously I’d prefer to see a more effective player like Condra play over the likes of Neil, but that’s never going to happen under this current regime.
I’ve spent a lot of time writing about the possession game and that’s without even touching upon the play of Erik Karlsson. For the first time in his career, his season numbers to this point reflect a negative on ice Corsi rating. One of the best historical possession drivers amongst defencemen in the NHL isn’t getting the job done this season (48.64 CF% at 5v5).
It hasn’t exactly helped that his most frequent defensive partner in Marc Methot has not played a game yet. In his absence, Karlsson has been partnered with Chris Phillips, Jared Cowen and even Mark Borowiecki most frequently.
For whatever reason, Paul MacLean simply does not want to pair noted possession driver Patrick Wiercioch with Erik Karlsson. It’s kind of odd considering the play of Ottawa’s other left defencemen, Wiercioch’s underlying numbers, his similar style to Filip Kuba (a player Karlsson had success with before) and that Wiercioch enjoyed his best season as well playing alongside another puck moving defenceman in Sergei Gonchar.
In watching Karlsson play, at times it looks like he’s trying to force things or take on too much of the responsibilities himself. (Maybe some of that is related to who his partner is since none of Phillips, Borowiecki and Cowen are renowned for moving the puck?)
Perhaps Wiercioch could help take some of that pressure off of Karlsson or allow the Senators to effectively handle their breakouts and adjust to teams that focus their forecheck and neutral zone positioning on Karlsson’s play with the puck.
If Karlsson could have success playing with a Wiercioch, it would then free Methot to bolster the team’s second pairing with Cody Ceci. Which in turn would allow the team to play the likes of Phillips, Cowen and Borowiecki in sheltered minutes.
Unfortunately, it seems like the likelihood of this happening is fleeting. Although Wiercioch seemed to be turning the corner and playing at a higher level after some early struggles, MacLean has elected to make him a healthy scratch for the past number of games. Moreover, Methot is back skating and reports from yesterday’s practice indicated that he would not return until at least December.
When he does, thanks to the performances of Methot’s placeholders, Methot will likely return to his spot on the first defensive pairing.
MacLean’s always been a little bit risk averse. Probably because it’s safer for him to play veterans which in turn would make his personnel decisions less susceptible to outside criticism. It may not matter in the end if Ottawa can’t reach the postseason, but a few subtle changes could go a long way to helping the roster now and developing it for the future.
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