We missed Monday Mania last week, and we will miss it against this week. However, this time around, the Pre-Game Skate is getting beefed up. The Panthers beat Tampa Bay in the first game of the home-and-home series, and it was crazy game, so there is plenty to discuss.
The Numbers
[table id=TS02G18 /] [table id=IS02G18 /] [table id=GM02G18 /]* – Stats are courtesy of War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
[table id=PRPF02G18 /] [table id=PRPD02G18 /] [table id=PRPG02G06 /] [table id=PROF02G17 /] [table id=PROD02G17 /] [table id=PROG02G17 /]The Rundown
Saturday night’s game in Tampa was truly thrilling, albeit maybe not the greatest display of hockey the Panthers have put forth. The game saw the Panthers strike first, then exchange 1 goal leads with the Lightning, with both teams getting a penalty shot along the way, ultimately ending with Roberto Luongo shutting the door, stopping all three Lightning shooters in the shootout.
It was not all roses for Luongo though. During regulation, he had a particular rough game, letting in a bad angle shot to tie the game. He then opened the 2nd period by taking a spill on Tampa’s go ahead 2-1 goal. However, he was eventually able to shake the bad mojo, and turned in a good effort late in the game when the Panthers needed it the most.
Now its back to Sunrise, and the Panthers will be hoping to add another victory on home ice. The Panthers, 4-3-2 at BB&T Center, are the only team besides Montreal (7-1-1) with a winning record at home in the Atlantic Division.
On the Lightning side, they are licking their wounds. They practiced shootout/breakaway on Sunday after getting stuffed on a penalty shot, in addition to the three shootout rounds by Luongo.
We also wrote briefly on Steven Stamkos’ offensive downturn last game. He had two assists last game, this being just his second multi-point game of the season. The other was a three point effort against the Dallas Stars on October 15. Incidentally, the Lightning have lost bkth games Stamkos has had multiple points in. Don’t expect that trend to last.
The Hat Trick
Barkov Back! (Applause): Rejoice! It appears as though the Panthers will be getting their #1 Center back tonight. Sasha Barkov has missed the last ten games, or three and a half weeks, after breaking his hand blocking a shot in Chicago on October 22. The injury halted what was arguably the best start of Barkov’s career. He had six points in seven games, something he’d never done before. His Corsi and Scoring Chance metrics were also solid, continuing to improve as they had over the last two seasons.
Specifically, he was posting a CF% of 53.2, and a SCF% of 56.4, both score adjusted. The suppression component was just as strong this year (48.7 CA60/21.8 SCA60) as it was last year (49.5/20.6). To go along with that, Barkov’s generation had markedly improved from 2014-15 (54.3/24.8) to this year (56.4/28.8).
The only question here is what kind of impact will this actually have on the team. Though Barkov was having a solid start to the season, the Panthers team numbers showed little change, with their score adjusted CF% hovering in the 48% range both with and without the young Finn. Hopefully the paltry numbers prior to Barkov’s injury can be chalked up to small sample size.
Kulikov Out! (Groans): And just when you started getting excited about the prospect of a full Panthers lineup, another injury occurs. This time it was defenseman Dmitry Kulikov.
We do not know the full extent of the injury at this time, but we do know that the Panthers will be missing the steady defender. Kulikov is third on the team in CA60 at 48.6, trailing Brian Campbell (45.6) and Aaron Ekblad (40.9). That won’t be easy to replace, especially not by Steven Kampfer, who has never recorded a CA60 under 53.1 in his career, and put up a 76.8 in his one appearance this season. Should Kulikov be out for an extended amount of time, it’d be a dicey proposition to trust Kampfer completely.
So what options do the Panthers have? They could conceivably trade for defensive help, but who exactly is available at this time is not entirely clear. Also, if they were going to go the trade route, it would make the most sense to acquire someone who would be an improvement on what the Panthers already have. There’s no sense in spending assets to just get an adequate replacement level player. The better option might be recalling a defenseman from Portland.
The popular pick amongst Sunshine Skate staffers would be Mike Matheson. He looked fantastic during camp, and its tantalizing to think of the kind of future he may have. However, his first full season in the AHL has seen him collect just three points in his first 11 games. So, for the good of his development, it may or may not be a good idea to call him up. Someone who may need some consideration is Cameron Gaunce. The former Colorado Avalanche/Dallas Stars prospect, who signed with the Panthers this offseason, has 8 points in 12 games. He had 14 points in 73 games all of last year.
Everybody Do The Lineup Shuffle: With the likely return of Sasha Barkov, and the unfortunate absence of Dmitry Kulikov, we’re likely in store for some lineup shuffling. Up front, the lines are likely to be as they were before. Barkov will retake his spot between Huberdeau and Jagr, Bjugstad slides down, and Trocheck moves back to wing. However, with how well Trocheck has played at center over the last month, moving him back to wing does not seem like it would necesarrily be the best solution.
During the first seven games of the season, when Trocheck played mainly on the wing, he put up a score adjusted CF% of 40.0. Not exactly fantastic. This not to say he was necesarily playing bad, he did have that four point night against the Flyers, but there was some sort of inefficiency going on. It could also be chalked up to the fact he was playing wing on Dave Bolland’s line, given that Bolland has never really been seen favorably by the shot generation and suppression metrics.
However, in Barkov’s absence, Trocheck slid over to center, and he’s had a much better time of it. He’s had a CF% of 52.1 since going to center, collecting 8 of his 13 points on season after switching to center. With all of the things that have gone wrong with the Panthers over the last while, this is one of the few thngs that is working. The Panthers would do well to find a way to keep Trocheck at center.
The real intrigue though is what happens on defense. Coach Gallant has used just four unique defensive pairs this season: Willie Mitchell-Erik Gudbranson, Brian Campbell-Aaron Ekblad, Dmitry Kulikov-Alex Petrovic, and Dmitry Kulikov-Steven Kampfer. We are guaranteed to see our fifth unique defensive pairing of the season tonight, the question is what will it be?
That answer is not quite straightforward. With Kampfer in and Kulikov out, that leaves the Panthers with just two left handed shots on their defense. Someone who shoots right will have to play the left side. It will be interesting to see if Kampfer simply slots into Kulikov’s spot, or if Gallant elects to get creative with his configuration.
Closing Thoughts
Though we’ve been critical of his choices of late, a congratulations is in line for Gerard Gallant, as he is behind the Panthers bench for his 100th game tonight!
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