Most teams that start the season 1-11 — like current RPI 299, Coppin State — don’t have to worry much about postseason scheduling or summers filled with NCAA Tournament baseball. The same cannot be said for the Cincinnati Bearcats, who, after losing 11 of their first 12 games in 2016, are now leading the American Athletic Conference by a half game over second place Tulane.
Since its ignominious start to the 2016 season, Cincinnati has gone 19-10 and — though it still has a losing overall record at 20-21 — now leads the AAC with only three conference series (12 conference games) remaining.
Tulane is no pushover. But Cincinnati marched right into Turchin Stadium last weekend, right in the heart of bustling New Orleans and snatched a road series victory allowing only two runs per game, on average, against the Green Wave.
In fact, Cincinnati has won all four of its AAC conference series so far this year. As another matter of fact, the only three-game series the Bearcats have lost all season was their season opener to LSU in Baton Rouge.
For all of Cincinnati’s resurgence this season, the team is still woeful in several key statistical areas. Namely, the Bearcats rank own the AAC’s third worst RPI at 125. Additionally, the Bearcats are a troublesome 3-8 versus top 50 RPI squads and 5-14 against top 100 RPI teams.
Cincinnati ranks 270th in the NCAA in team batting average (.238) which is, unsurprisingly, dead last in the AAC. The team fares better nationally in team ERA but only 60th with a combined ERA of 3.71.
Cincinnati is 4-9 in away games and holds a 4-16 record in all games outside of its own home field.
On the upside, Cincinnati ranks first in the AAC in fielding percentage, stolen bases and triples. And, most importantly, it still ranks first in the conference standings.
Cincinnati’s lineup features three players who have an OPS higher than .800: 1B Ryan Noda (.819), 3B Connor McVey (.833), and OF Treg Haberkorn (.819). They also have three players who have four or more home runs so far this season: the aforementioned Noda and McVey and also C Woody Wallace.
Cincinnati’s pitching rotation includes a guy named Andrew Zellner. Zellner, recently named AAC player of the week, possesses a healthy 1.80 ERA and .206 opponent batting average. He’s unquestionably the ace and possibly the mojo guru. How else could a team with such fallible statistical outputs be so well off in conference play?
Cincinnati, 8-4 in the AAC, faces East Carolina (26-15, 7-5 AAC) this weekend for a road series against the Pirates who are only one game out of first place. The matchup is likely the last meeting of top three teams in the AAC and should prove pivotal in deciding the regular season conference champion.
#TheBearcatsAreComing https://t.co/HgeNO44mxT
— Cincinnati Baseball (@GoBearcatsBASE) April 25, 2016
East Carolina is coming off a hard fought series victory last weekend against Connecticut, winning the series two games to one. The Pirates, however, fell earlier this week to North Carolina State (29-11) in a midweek matchup of in-state rivals, 6-1.
East Carolina ranks first in the AAC in batting average as a team (.291), first in doubles (70), first in hits (395) and first in on-base percentage (.380). Their pitching staff is led by a pair of upperclassmen in Evan Kruczynski (5-0 record, ranked second in AAC in ERA, 1.51) and Jimmy Boyd (ranked ninth in AAC in WHIP, 1.05)
No. 20 @ECUBaseball took down No. 8 NC State 15-3 last night
WATCH: https://t.co/DsVCaz5HPx pic.twitter.com/uT5rafq2PM
— The American (@American_Conf) April 20, 2016
For all of East Carolina’s statistical prowess, it still hasn’t attained a feat the supposedly lowly (statistically speaking) Bearcats have already achieved and presumably don’t want to relinquish: first place in the AAC. King of the hill in the AAC may just be decided this weekend in Greenville, NC.
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