Hello Followers.
Well, following last night’s debacle of a game, I was amazed to be woken up this morning by my good friend “Victory Bell” who informed me that her inbox had been flooded with “questions” about last night’s post-game rant by yours truly.
So, she suggested that I take a few of the questions she received and respond a la my good friend Teddy Miller. What’s more, she also suggested that I make this a regular feature during the llllllllonnnnnngggg off-season.
Of course, I replied, “But Victory, what happens if no one is bored enough to actually send me ANYTHING?”
Her reply: “Well then, you’re going to have to make some stuff up, aren’t you?”
So with that in mind, please feel free to e-mail me, The Sutra, The Keeper of All Everlasting Wisdom and Grace, your rants, stories, comments, questions and experiences about ANYTHING that is on your mind ([email protected]). And, over the coming months, I’ll unload the old mail bag every couple of weeks.
(And yes, I sure hope we have things to talk about other than Cougar Sports.)
Now, Click onto the jump for this week’s version
Sutra, how in the world can you claim that our tournament aspirations are done when there’s a ton of more basketball left to be played?
-Cletis Christenson, Lubbock Texas
Good question, Cletis. To be honest, I can’t. Mathematically, this team is still very much alive.
So, lets take a quick look at where we’re at. Currently, with 6 losses in conference, we’d have to win the rest of our games in order to be a sure-fire lock for the NCAA tournament–meaning we’d be 12-6 in conference and 22-8 overal heading to the conference tourney. And, like I’ve said earlier, I believe that 11-7 would get us in. Heck, even 10-8 with wins over UCLA, Washington, and Arizona would probably do the trick. So, in that respect, you are right. And I was….
Onto the next question:
Sutra, I can’t believe that you actually think that this team can’t go to the Dance. You truly have lost your fricking mind?
-Thane Nyerson, Topeka Kansas
Good question, Thane. You know, we always encourage questions of the rhetorical variety on this here mail bag.
Listen, I think what you’re getting at here is my incredible knack for poor word choice. That is, in your “question” you use the word “can’t “much in the same way that I used the word “dashed.” (as in “hopes dashed.”)
Of course, because of my poor word choice, I communicated the idea that playing in the NCAA’s has become “impossible”–which it is not, at least mathematically.
However, there are some good reasons why I think that our hopes practically ended last night. And so, lets take a look a few:
1) Good players vs. Good Basketball Team
One of the things that is maddening about our boys is that we seem to have so much talent. Yet, in spite of this talent, we just can’t seem to win some of the games that we should. And the reason for that is simple: We just aren’t a very good basketball team.
Now, the reasons for this sad “fact” could go on and on and on and on. But, here’s one key takeaway: On most nights, we’ve got two guys on the court that either can’t score or can’t defend.
In the “can’t score” column, we have Lodwick and Capers.
In the “can’t defend” column, we have Aden, Simon, and Moore.
And, on some nights, we have Aden, Simon, Moore, and Lodwick (against BIG teams) in the “can’t score and can’t defend” column.
In non-conference play, you can get around those weak links. But, in conference play–especially the second time around–teams that are well coached tend to do an excellent job of exploiting such weaknesses. And, when you’ve got 40% of your team at either end of the floor who represent a liability, you tend to get exploited and/or shut down, especially if the remaining 60% are not firing on all cylinders.
And because we haven’t figured out how to maximize our strengths, we’re seeing our glaring weaknesses magnified in a very painful way..
2) We haven’t developed an Identity.
The hallmark of any good basketball team is a strong identity. Currrently, we don’t have one. And those like you, Thane, who have played the game know that teams don’t develop an identity over night. Instead, the development of an identity starts in the offseason when the coach tells his or her players what type of team they are going to be. Then, throughout the early and mid-season, the coach pounds on his or her team (verbally) while teaching them to “stick to who were are” and not letting them stray too far from the chicken coup in the process.
Unfortunately for us, we seem to have really failed in this most fundemental aspect of building a “program” (identity). Think about it: What does this team do really well?
Rhetorical Answer: Klay is really good.
3) We don’t maximize our strengths
One reason for the “puppies and rainbows” optimism following the ASU, Arizona, and Washington games was the play of DeAngelo Casto. During that three game stretch Casto showed himself to be a real force underneath. What’s more, when Casto went off, a lot of other things started to open up for others on the court: The three pointer opened up, the baseline opened up, and the mid-rage runner/jumper in the lane opened up because the opponents’ primary post defender didn’t want to leave Casto alone on the baseline. The result: LOTS of guys on the team started to get good looks.
Of course, you look at the first half of last night’s game as well as the Oregon game, Casto was no where to be found. The reason: (a) we weren’t getting him the ball; and (b) He often literally was not in the game.
So, when you look at our offense, you see the potential for a really positive inside-out game that could give just about anyone in the country some real problems. Unfortunately, as you saw last night, our offense isn’t geared for that type of game: There are no side screens, back screens, and/or ball rotations to free the post. Moreover, because there is no movement, if and when we can’t get Casto the ball, then our offense becomes stagnant, and we see a host of wild passes and errant runners as a result. .
In short, while we have pieces that could, potentially, make us special, those pieces simply haven’t gelled. And that’s not a trivial statement since it’s, what, game 23???.
Moreover, when you see Klay start to play wild and desperate, when you see Aden pass up open jumpers on the perimeter, when you see Marcus play hot potato with the ball, and when you see NO movement from the 4 spot, you know you’ve got issues. And those types of issues typically aren’t solved overnight.
4) We haven’t developed any discpiline.
This links up with identity piece. Do you think that these guys are thinking about defense and rebounding in their sleep? When somebody asks these kids about what “Cougar Basketball” is about, do you think they say “Defense, Toughness, Rebounding, Smart Decision Making.” I don’t.
Put another way: Do you think that our guards (Moore and Aden) would still be over-rotating/doubling in the zone (which leads to wide open threes and penetration) if this was something that was worked on OVER and OVER and OVER in practice? I don’t.
Moreover, teams that are mentally tough, have really, really good heart, and are disciplined typically do not take off many possessions on either end of the floor.
But this Cougar team takes off LOTS of possessions. And as a result, you see a team that CONSISTENTLY falls behind by double digits due to poor shot selection and poor defense. You also see a team that goes ahead by 10, 15, or 20 and routinely gives that lead right back in a matter of minutes.
So, I ask you, Thane, did Washington let CAL back in the game last night when they were up 40-17? Nope. But, we let EVERY team back in the game–including the Zags game where we lost a 20 point lead in the first half. And Thane, NCAA tournament teams, when they get a lead, don’t do that.
5) Coaching, Coaching, Coaching.
Lets face it. Just like great players have bad years, great coaches have bad years too. In some cases, those great coaches rebound just fine–and we’re seeing that with Roy Williams right now at North Carolina. And, of course, in other instances, great coaches fail in certain settings and succeed in others. My good friend George Karl is one really, really good example of that.
Now, what’s going to happen with Ken Bone? Don’t know–but I hope he does great here. But the bottom line is that, with the exception of maybe Craig Robinson, I think every coach in the conference could have done a better job with this group than Bone has. And at some point, there needs to be some HARD questions asked about what type of identity he’s trying to build here.
(and yes, establishing an identity is different than saying what “style” of basketball you’re most comfortable with).
So, Thane, when you take a look at those FIVE BIG reasons why we’re not very good right now, then you should be able to see why I am near certain that we’re done. Simply put, teams with these types of issues don’t put a string together of wins like we need right now because they aren’t good enough to do so.
Mind you, because this team is talented, it may still win some big games. But, right now, I’m not even sure we’re gonna beat Arizona State let alone Arizona, Washington AND UCLA.
Okay, last one:
Sutra, why do you think that this team will not make the NCAA’s? Didn’t you say that the Washington win was the big win that we needed to ensure a trip to the Dance?
–Cassandra Cunningham, Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Yep, I said that, or something like it. I also said that we wouldn’t beat Washington and that Baylor would kill us. So you got me there, Cassie.
Unfortunately for us, our big “wins” aren’t looking very big anymore. Washington would have been a great win until they reminded everyone on the selection committee that they can’t beat anyone on the road. So now, we’re going to have to beat them at home as well.
Baylor may still be a “good win”, but most of the projections out there have them as a double digit seed–assuming they get in at all (And boy would it have been GREAT to have beaten them by 20 instead of by 6 (or whatever)).
Meanwhile, the Zag win doesn’t look great anymore. And the Portland, Santa Clara, and Mississippie State wins look just “okay.”
Beyond our wins, our “good” losses simply don’t look so good anymore: Kansas State is around the bubble instead of in the top 5. And that Butler team that whooped us on Christmas Day may not even win their own stinking conference–they too are around the bubble.
Of course, what is even worse than the worse is that we no longer have the resume padder of “No Bad Loses.” Now, we have two in the season’s final month.
Finally, as I mentioned earlier, we’re not blowing ANYONE out. And so, when the perception out there is that the conference just isn’t very good, our resume is looking worse by the day, in part, because we’re not separating ourselves from the bottom with large margins of victory. And that’s assuming that we were actually winning.
Alright, that’s all the time we have for today.
Remember its [email protected] . Looking forward to it.
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