Two programs diverged in their defensive philosophies, yet attempting the same goal – holding opponents to low scoring totals – meet tonight in the Sweet 16 when Wisconsin and their man-to-man defense takes on Syracuse and their “2-3” zone defense.
Sometimes people like to over-think the game of basketball, but really it’s a pretty simple game. Don’t let anyone tell you this game isn’t all about defense, because it’s really that simple. Whoever can impose their defense better will win this matchup.
See you on Saturday in the Elite 8, where done here, enjoy the game…. Not really, but it’s seriously about that easy to see how either team can win this game.
Yes, Syracuse is long and athletic, but they have to be to play the defense they want to play. So, honestly I don’t know why people are surprised or constantly talking about it? It’s what they do and who they are. Now if they were small, nonathletic and trying to play the zone they do, we’d have a story on our hands.
Wisconsin is full of hard nosed, physical, and disiplined players. Guess what? They also have to be full of those kinds of players in order to play the style of man-to-man defense they do.
If the Badgers play a zone defense I have a feeling that the place down below just might be in a major cooling period if you catch my drift.
In fact Jordan Taylor said as much, “I’ve never played a second of zone defense since I’ve been at Wisconsin,” said Taylor at a press conference yesterday. “I’ve heard Coach [Bo Ryan] say one time he played it one possession and he got scored on I think he said, so he won’t go back to it. I don’t think you’re going to see that tomorrow.”
These two defenses are very good and it will be a very interesting chess match to watch tonight. The Badgers lead the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 52.9 points a game. The Orange? They give up a pretty paltry 60.5 points a game in their own right. That total is good for 5th best in the country.
Normally it’s the offense that dictates who’s going to control tempo, but tonight should be the exact opposite. Syracuse uses it’s zone to push the tempo by creating turnovers and transition opportunities where they excel because of their athletic nature.
On the other hand the Badgers obviously like to use their defense to force teams deep into the shot clock and to take bad shots. That allows the Badgers to slow things down offensively and be patient. In fact they average a DI low 59.2 possessions per game. However, they are also pretty efficient with those possessions, averaging 66.7 points a game.
So the question is which team has the edge in pushing their style of play? In looking at that I honestly have to give the edge to Wisconsin because of the fact that all their players can step out and hit 3’s. It’s played out well for the Badgers in the tournament so far, especially according to ESPN Stats & Info which tells us the Badgers are shooting 46% overall against the zone. Wisconsin is also shooting a tournament best 47% from deep.
Those two stats can tell you a lot about where the Badgers stand, however they haven’t faced the athletic version that Syracuse can play, but give me the proven results.
Syracuse does force a lot of turnovers, 9.4 a game to be exact, but again this is an area where offensively the Badgers usually succeed. Sure they average 9 turnovers a game, but that number was closer to just 8 a few weeks ago.
Add in the fact that Wisconsin plays transition defense better than just about any DI team out there and ‘Cuse may not be able to take advantage of those turnovers to help them score their average of 74.5 points a game.
Individually there are two matchups that really could key this game.
First off is the matchup nightmare for the Badgers in Kris Joseph. This season he’s averaging a team best 13.7ppg and has grabbed an average of 4.9 rebounds a game. He’s a finalist for the Naismith Award and for good reason. The forward is fast and tall, which makes it a tough matchup for the likes of Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans. If the Badgers can find someone to consistently matchup well against him defensively that bodes well for Wisconsin, but I wouldn’t count on it.
The other matchup to watch is one that features roommates from the Deron Williams camp this past summer in ‘Cuse’s Scoop Jardine and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor. Both are extremly talented point guards that can score and get their teammates involved. They are also the catalysts for their teams.
Taylor needs to be on his game, play with poise, and avoid turnovers. He also needs to be the eyes against the Syracuse zone and needs to be the one to step up and take some of the tougher shots to relax the zone.
Scoop needs to be the distributor out in transition and also needs to be on from outside to stretch the Badgers defense in the half-court set.
As I’ve said before, this game comes down to whose defense can dictate this game, but also who’s point guard can be the one to execute the offensive game plan the best should help go a long way to determining the winner of this one.
So, do I see Wisconsin moving on or does their end run today? For me there’s one last X factor in this game and it’s the bench play. Syracuse has a very talented roster from top to bottom and Dion Waters is 2nd on this team in scoring (13.4ppg) so most would think they have the advantage there. But the NCAA tournament is usually not about who’s more talented, rather who’s got the hot hand. Enter Wisconsin’s Rob Wilson and Ben Brust. The two guards have been increasingly better over the past few weeks with Wilson really finding his stroke from deep and Brust also coming out of his shooting comma. Brust has also added an element we haven’t seen often from him in his ability to drive.
Let’s also remember Syracuse hasn’t exactly been a stellar team so far in this tournament, needing a ref bailout in their opener against UNC-Asheville to avoid being the 1st No. 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. They also weren’t setting the world on fire against Kansas State in the round of 32 until the 2nd half.
So, my prediction? Give me the team that’s hot and playing with a lot of confidence every day of the week in the NCAA tournament and in this matchup that’s Wisconsin. I see the game playing to their pace and winning 65-58 and that means moving on to the Elite Eight where they could possibly face Ohio State in an all B1G matchup.
Enjoy the game and ON WISCONSIN! (If you want even more in depth we talked w/ Evan Flood of Badger247 last night on BADGERS POWER HOUR so click the link and listen in)
Agree or disagree? Leave a comment below – or leave your prediction… there just may be a prize for the person closest to the actual final score (of course you have to predict the correct winner to start with). Don’t forget to follow us tonight on Twitter as we’ll be giving updates and analysis throughout the game!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
