The top twelve teams in the AP Top 25 are still undefeated after five weeks. Generally speaking we know a lot about these teams because they are all over television and the highlight shows. Let’s take a look at the “other” six undefeated teams from the AP poll, learn a little bit about them and see who is their most likely first loss.
Record: 3-0, 2-0 Pac-12
Best Wins: Wisconsin (10-7), UCLA (27-20), Arizona (38-35)
Cupcakes: None
Next Opponent: Washington State, Oct 6th
Oregon State has three close wins on their record but they are all against teams that are reputable. The Beavers have a favorable schedule coming up (vs Wazzu, at BYU, vs Utah) but it’s not a cake walk. From a statistical standpoint, the Beavers have been average across the board (7th in Pac-12 in total defense, 7th in scoring defense, 4th in total offense and 8th in scoring offense). So far they have exceeded expectations, it will be interesting to see how much longer they can avoid their first loss.
Most likely first loss: 10/27 at Washington
#15 TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 4-0, 1-0 Big 12
Best Win: Virginia (27-7)
Cupcakes: Grambling State (56-0)
Next Opponent: vs Iowa State, Oct 6th
TCU is not a bad football team but they are largely a function of their schedule, at least so far. All of their victories have come against lackluster opponents so it’s hard to tell just how good they are. Despite facing lesser opponents they are just 8th in the Big 12 in total offense and 8th in scoring offense. The defense does rank first in scoring defense and second in total defense. There is a still a lot we don’t know about the Horned Frogs and we are about to find out as they face Iowa State and Baylor. Those teams are from the middle to bottom half of the Big 12 but you have to play good football to beat the Cyclones and you have to score a bunch of points to beat Baylor.
Most likely first loss: 10/13 at Baylor
Record: 5-0
Best Win: North Carolina (39-34)
Cupcakes: Missouri State (35-7)
Next Opponent: at Pitt, Oct 13th
Louisville is 5-0 and has looked really good at times (vs Kentucky and first half vs UNC) and has also looked very questionable (vs UNC second half and at FIU). They found a way to win last week in a monsoon and have a very favorable schedule lined up the rest of the way as they play Pitt and then have three straight home games.
Most likely first loss: 10/26 vs Cincinnati
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 4-0, 1-0 SEC
Best Win: Auburn (28-10)
Cupcakes: Jackson State (56-9), South Alabama (30-10)
Next Opponent: at Kentucky, Oct 6th
So far the Bulldogs are definitely a function of their schedule but they have looked a lot better than they did last year. The schedule also sets up so we could see them at 7-0 headed into Alabama if they can get past Tennessee on Oct 13th.
Most likely first loss: vs Tennessee, Oct 13th
Record: 4-0, 1-0 Big East
Best Win: at Arkansas 35-26
Cupcakes: at Tulane (24-12), Howard (26-0)
Next Opponent: vs UConn, Oct 6th
Rutgers hasn’t been spectacular in their four wins but they’ve done what you have to do to get the win and they do have three victories on the road. The benefit of going on the road earlier is that the Scarlet Knights now come home for four of their next five games. A game that might be more interesting than you think is this weeks match-up against UConn since Rutgers lost to them by 18 points last season.
Most likely first loss: vs Louisville, Nov 29th
Record: 5-0, 1-0 Big Ten
Best Wins: at Syracuse (42-41), Vandy (23-13), Boston College (22-13)
Cupcakes: South Dakota (38-7)
Next Opponent: at Penn State, Oct 6th
Northwestern’s opponents so far haven’t exactly been from the cream of the crop. In fact, the Wildcats five wins have come against teams that are yet to notch a win over an FBS opponent (unless you count UMass). I think we know less about Northwestern than we do about any other team on this list. That being said, they have beaten the teams in front of them. They will get a big test this weekend when they travel to Happy Valley.
Most likely first loss: vs Nebraska, Oct 20th
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