Talent matters, and it matters much more than the fans of aspiring programs would care to admit. Champion Alabama had the number one rated recruiting classes in the country in 2008 and 2009. The Crimson Tide assembled a death star defense comprised of 4 and 5-stars who were mean and agile, then unleased them on North Texas and Georgia Southern on the way to a 12-1 record, squashing them like minor planets in a solar system they ruled with an iron cybernetic fist.
Photo left: National title teams are built at the line of scrimmage, and nothing’s more vital than a big, physical tackle who can anchor a defensive line. 6-8, 285-lb. Arik Armstead is that kind of player (maxpreps.com photo).
Skeptics point to five-star flops like Dillon Baxter and Bryce Brown and say see, the recruiting sites don’t know what they’re talking about. It would seem so at Oregon, where the coaching staff made the national championship game in 2010-11 with 24th-rated classes (their average ranking in the previous four years, from rivals.com). Only in the last two seasons has Oregon broken through in recruiting, using the combination of innovative uniforms, an aggressive national effort by the coaches, on-field success and first-rate facilities to crack the Top Ten.
It’s harder out here. In an average year the state of Georgia produces 250 or more division one football players. Oregon produces three to five. Scan the rosters of Alabama, LSU and Florida, and they are dotted with home-grown talent. The Ducks have to coax elite players to leave home and fall in love with the rainy Northwest, at a school tucked in a perfectly lovely town that lacks many of the amenities of a big city. It’s a challenge. Some kids thrive on it and embrace the atmosphere and tradition in Eugene, the passion of the fans. Many even come to love the mild weather. But it’s a selling job to get them to come.
Oregon’s succeeded in many creative ways. They’ve made inroads in Texas, a recruiting hotbed. The coaches first found and then made NFL players out of unheralded high schoolers like Jairus Byrd, Jeff Maehl, Brandon Bair, Spencer Paysinger, and LaMichael James. James was an undersized three-star running back from Liberty-Elau High in Texarkana, Texas. He turned out to be a pretty good player, much better than Baxter or Brown.
Fans who follow recruiting closely are anxious with three weeks to go until Signing Day. Oregon hasn’t landed the program-changing superstar in this round, and they’ve missed out on a couple of big names, like Saturday when safety Shaquille Thompson and another big, agile defensive tackle, Ellis McCarthy, chose Cal. Duck fans have their hopes pinned on Armstead, 6-8, 275, strong, aggressive, superbly talented, a rare, genuine, two-gap defensive tackle with the physical ability to dominate games by disrupting a line of scrimmage. For all of Oregon’s recent success, this is the type of player that separates them from the Alabamas and LSUs, the unblockable stud at the nose.
Why haven’t the Webfoots landed a player like this? It isn’t that the Oregon coaches can’t find them or recruit them; it’s simply that there are rarely more than a half dozen to be found in the country. A big defensive tackle with the agility and athletic ability to be truly great is the scarcest commodity in football. Receivers and running backs are all over, and easier to coach, train and develop. You can make a fast, athletic 200-pounder a better receiver or running back. 320-pound guys who can jump a table are born and fed.
Tonight Devante Harris, a 4-star cornerback from Horn High School in Mesquite, Texas, cancelled a scheduled visit to Oregon. The reasons aren’t clear, but boil down to the fact he’s 18 and prone to change his mind about his future, likely to chose a school closer to home like TCU or Texas A&M. Already he’s backed out of a verbal commitment to Oklahoma, and he may prove more mercurial than another Harris who played awhile in Eugene.
While it’s disconcerting to have a talented player change his mind without even visiting, Oregon can live without Harris. He’s 5-11, 160. Just after Thanksgiving the Ducks got a verbal commitment from Chandler, Arizona defensive back Reggie Daniels, and at 6-2, 185, Daniels is a smart, hard-hitting defensive back that reminds some observers of Jairus Byrd. He’ll thrive in the Oregon secondary, physical, competitive and aggressive, the kind of player John Neal loves to coach.
Which brings up a key point about recruiting. Talent matters. It does, and some teams simply enjoy an eyeball-test advantage in fall camp and on game day. These are the schools that make Robert Smith’s Top Five every year. But Oregon’s coaches do their own evaluating, and they are pretty good at it. Expect Daniels, DeForest Buckner, Jeremy Castro and Bryce Cottrell to become the core of a very good defense at Oregon, a defense that could extend a run of success into a dynasty in PAC-12 football. Armstead could become a tremendous part of that, if he doesn’t decide for USC, Cal or Notre Dame. If he does, the Ducks will have to get everything they can from Stetzon Bair and Alex Balducci, and fly to the football like they always have. Talent matters, and USUALLY there is some substance behind the reputations. But talent is only the beginning. It takes two to three years of commitment and focus to become a great college football team, even greater commitment and focus to stay one.
With or without Armstead, the Ducks will have a very solid class that will give them every opportunity to stay in college football’s Top 15 for several more seasons. Landing the West’s most coveted tackle prospect, though, elevates the potential of the entire program.
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