Tank Watch: 10 games left by @lukewachob

The final 10 games are here. Somebody hold me.

What happened last week: The Sabres played two shootouts and earned three points versus Washington and Boston before walking us back off the ledge with a pair of regulation losses to New Jersey and Nashville. The Oilers gave us some breathing room as they played their three weakest remaining opponents and picked up 5 out of 6 possible points. Meanwhile, the Coyotes won the week (again), losing all four of their games in regulation to drop into 29^th place.

Current Standings:

8. Edmonton Oilers – 72 games played, 20-39-13, 53 points, -75 goal differential
9. Arizona Coyotes – 73 games played, 21-44-8, 50 points, -93 goal differential
10. Buffalo Sabres – 72 games played, 20-45-7, 47 points, -106 goal differential

Game Previews, March 23 – March 29:

Edmonton Oilers Game #73: vs. Winnipeg Jets, Monday 9:30 PM                 37-23-12, 86 points

Edmonton Oilers Game #74: vs. Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday 8 PM                   33-26-12, 78 points

Edmonton Oilers Game #75: vs. Dallas Stars, Friday 9:30 PM                                  34-28-10, 78 points

Don’t sleep on Edmonton just yet. Despite being clearly the best team in the Tank Watch and facing a six-point gap from 30^th, the Oilers still have a chance to finish last. Their schedule is harder than Buffalo’s and Arizona’s the rest of the way and consists exclusively of Western conference teams. All of the Oilers’ opponents this week are hot – Winnipeg has won four in a row, Colorado has won ten of their last fifteen, and Dallas has won seven of their last ten. They’re each also fighting to make the playoffs. On top of that, Edmonton plays Colorado again next week, and faces other bubble teams in Los Angeles (twice), Calgary and San Jose in their final ten games. Their other two opponents are the Ducks and Canucks, so you could say it’s a tough road from here on out. Edmonton has looked like they don’t belong in the McEichel race in recent weeks, but if they drop every game this week while the Sabres and Coyotes each pick up a few points, they’ll be right back in it.

Arizona Coyotes Game #74: @ Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday 7:30 PM                        39-21-11, 89 points

Arizona Coyotes Game #75: @ Buffalo Sabres, Thursday 7 PM                                 20-45-7, 47 points

Arizona Coyotes Game #76: @ Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday 1 PM             40-22-10, 90 points

The Coyotes have not won a game outside the shootout – and shootout wins are ties in my book – since February 3^rd. Game recognize game. You can’t be this bad without wanting to be. Confident Sabres fans have nine more games to say “they have to win one eventually” but so far they haven’t. If they don’t, we’ll look back on this as the most impressive half-season of tanking in our lifetimes and once again, something that would mean THE WORLD to Buffalo will go to some southern/western market that doesn’t even care. The 1999 Stanley Cup in Dallas. The 2006 Stanley Cup in Carolina. Jack Eichel in Arizona. I can’t live with it.

I don’t know what to write for these game previews because it doesn’t seem to matter whether the Coyotes have been outshooting their opponents or not, or what goalie they choose to play, or whether their opponents have been good or bad. The Coyotes lose. That’s all they do.

Fortunately, we can force-feed them 2 points this week if we have the guts. Their other games – at Detroit and at Pittsburgh – are long-shots. The Yotes put up 31 shots in last week’s 3-1 home loss to the Pens and were only outshot 26-23 in their February 3-1 home loss to the Red Wings, but they just can’t score. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict they lose both games 3-1.

Buffalo Sabres Game #73: @ Dallas Stars, Monday 8:30 PM                                    34-28-10, 78 points

Buffalo Sabres Game #74: vs. Arizona Coyotes, Thursday 7 PM                                21-44-8, 50 points

Buffalo Sabres Game #75: @ Colorado Avalanche, Saturday 9 PM               33-26-12, 78 points

If the Sabres repeat their performance from the last ten games – in which they earned 4 points – they will almost definitely finish 30^th. On the other hand, if the Sabres repeat their performance over the previous ten games – in which they earned 10 points – they will almost definitely not. Even if you think tanking is a bad idea or unethical or just boring, with so little time left everyone should be on the tanking bandwagon and paying attention. Wins won’t erase what a horrible year this was, and losses will get you JACK EICHEL. We’re not talking about a season of losses or a month of losses, we’re talking about 10 games. TEN. GAMES. Get it done.

This week’s slate of games is friendly to tankers. I mentioned earlier that Dallas and Colorado have been hot lately, but even if they weren’t, the Sabres have a grand total of one (1) win on the road against Western conference opponents this year. (They won in San Jose in October). Of course, last week I told you that Washington and Boston would beat Buffalo easily while the New Jersey game would be tough, and we all saw how that (didn’t) play out so don’t take anything for granted.

The game of the week is obviously Thursday, when the Sabres host the Yotes. The teams meet again next Monday in Arizona. Lose these two games in regulation and the path to 30^th suddenly becomes a cake walk. It wouldn’t be clinched, but to blow it Buffalo would need to gain at least 7 points on Arizona in 8 games (and possibly 8, depending on tie-breakers). But if the Sabres win these games, they could be in 29^th next week.

The stakes are high, and when you look at shots, the Coyotes seem to have the upper hand. Not only is Buffalo’s CF% the lowest in the league by a significant margin (teams ranked 1^st through 29^th range from 54.8 to 43.5 while the Sabres are a pitiful 37.1) but Arizona isn’t even in the bottom five. What kills them apparently isn’t their ability to create shots, but their inability to finish: Arizona has a league-worst 5.58% shooting percentage (Buffalo’s is 7.18%, also in the bottom ten) and the league’s worst PDO. If the Sabres are the NHL’s worst team, the Coyotes are its most unlucky. What a match-up! Get your popcorn ready.

Looking Ahead: Edmonton needs to stop winning immediately to get back into the thick of the McEichel race. Arizona has the hot hand, but can their bad luck last another ten games? Buffalo controls their own destiny but plays the easiest schedule.

The State of the Tank: The Bills have the lead but Brady has the ball. Why won’t the clock move faster, damn it?!