While many are talking about “fixing” tanking, the NBA should embrace the idea because it benefits teams in the long run.
Winning is everything. If you’re not trying to win, what’s the point of competing? Isn’t that the way it’s supposed to go?
Or should the NBA sign it’s name on a reality check and wait to cash it? To be frank, there are only a handful of teams expected to “actually” compete for an NBA Finals appearance. Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Miami, and Indiana are the only ones considered to be fair assumptions. For fun, let’s throw in the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers because, hey, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry are not men to bet against.
But to be fair, most expect Miami and Indiana to represent the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference will come down to those five unless Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge form Shaq-and-Kobe 2.0, in spite of this year’s success.
So as far as winning goes, there are 23 other teams hanging around like the single guy at a bar, waiting for Kate Upton to meander in and sit down next to him. Sure, “anything” can happen, but I’m a concrete guy. Odds are that those 23 teams are going to be going home alone come May.
ESPN’s John Hollinger’s playoff odds are one way to look at it. Chicago and Brooklyn are fourth and fifth in the East, respectively, and there’s less than a 17-percent chance either team reaches the finals. Miami and Indiana make up more than half of the odds.
In the West, there’s a 91.2-percent likelihood one of the five teams I mentioned makes a Finals appearance.
So to re-iterate, why even bother to try and spend money if you’re not going to win? There’s 14 teams that won’t even make the playoffs, let alone reach the finals. So why would the Orlando Magic, New Orleans Pelicans, etc. even attempt to put together a “winning” team when they’ll most likely be in the lottery?
Enter the “tanking” effect.
The buzz circling the league is how tanking needs to be extinguished. There are rumors of eliminating the draft lottery so losing won’t automatically result in a high pick. I don’t understand this talk.
Those teams aren’t going to win anyway, barring major injuries to the stars on actual contenders.
If I’m a Bobcats/Hornets fan, I’m a bit irked my team is in playoff contention because I’m riding the “Sorry for Jabari” or “Riggin’ for Wiggins” campaigns.
I know there’s virtually no chance my team knocks out Miami or Indy in a seven-game series. I’d rather be terrible now and win later.
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are all on the wrong side of 30. Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan have a pinky grasping the league. I’m preaching the idea of riding the waves until the storm settles.
Philadelphia has to agree with me. The Sixers have been accused of tanking and they probably are. They traded their best player and started a young, inexperienced lineup. But here’s the second side of the coin: Philly has the (likely) Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams and a possible franchise big man in Nerlens Noel. Thaddeus Young has emerged as a solid power forward this year with 18 points a game and a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.2 — he’s 25.
If the Pelicans don’t land a top-three pick, the Sixers will have two lottery picks (from the Jrue Holiday trade). You’re now talking about possibly adding Parker/Wiggins and maybe a Julius Randle to the mix. That team would be young and dangerous. Plus, Sam Hinkie isn’t doling out Isaiah Thomas contracts, so there will be at least a decent-sized chunk of cash to re-sign those guys after their rookie contracts.
In fact, the only guaranteed money Philly owes after next year is Young’s $9.7 million.
The Sixers are setting themselves up for a possible run at a dynasty. Of course they have to actually win in order to do that, but a team full of superstar-potential players under 25 is the first step.
Anyone who plays the NBA 2K franchise can recognize it and it seems simple enough. Ditch the bad contracts and build for tomorrow. If Carter-Williams is this good now, imagine what he can grow into. Picture a healthy Noel catching lobs from Parker.
The Thunder did it, and it worked. The Pacers did it and presto — young powerhouse. You don’t think both teams took a nosedive to build those squads? Get your head out of the sand.
Indiana tanked for four years after Reggie Miller retired. It went 139-193 from 2006-2010, and the most money it spent was $65 million for a five-year extension for Danny Granger, which would have been a great deal if he stayed healthy. Injuries can’t be predicted for the most part.
Send Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto for the rights to Roy Hibbert and draft Paul George a couple years later… boom! The Pacers are now in the elite class of the league.
To be fair, “tanking” may be used loosely with the Pacer model because they did come close to a playoff contention in those years, but that was only because the East was so weak. The point is they were cleaning house and made no real attempt to win.
While signing Al Jefferson, who instantly became the best player in franchise history, catapulted the team into playoff contention, it now has Charlotte in draft limbo. It’s the nature of the draft. You either want to be first or last. The worst scenario is being stuck in the middle because then you’re not winning on either end.
So remind me what’s wrong with tanking? The fans aren’t showing up to the games anyway, so why not position yourself to be good later? It worked out for the Cleveland Cavaliers — temporarily. Poor management led to the downfall of that franchise. It wasn’t James’ exit.
The Cavs got the first part right: tank and get James. But they should have continued on that path for a year or two. Cleveland’s first round picks, with James, included Luke Jackson (10th), Shannon Brown (25th), J.J. Hickson (19th) and Christian Eyenga (30th). There were also a series of second-round picks that only produced Danny Green.
After the Jackson pick int the ’04 Draft, Josh Smith, J.R. Smith, Al Jefferson and Jameer Nelson all went in the next 10 picks. The Cavs doubled their wins in James’ rookie year. Imagine if they had tanked the next two seasons. There’s a good chance they walk away with Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc.
Don’t we all love the “what if” game?
The point is, tanking shouldn’t be seen as harmful to the NBA. It’s not altering the outcome that much by putting a worse team on the court if you’re Orlando or Philly.
The Magic are another example of why tanking is a good thing. Rob Hennigan made out like a bandit after dealing Howard and J.J. Redick because he ended up with Nikola Vucevic, a double-double machine, and Tobias Harris, who’s ceiling is as high as Otis Smith was when he thought Gilbert Arenas was going to compliment Howard.
Again, the Magic will probably have two lottery picks because it will end up with the lesser of New York’s and Denver’s picks after the Carmelo Anthony deal.
Both Philly and Orlando are setting themselves up to succeed for years to come. They’ll be young, exciting, and (most importantly) good.
By paying free agents and trying to win, when they’re obviously not going to, teams only delay the process. It’s like walking into a restaurant without money. You know you can’t eat.
Follow the Pacers’ model. Be bad for a three-to-four year period, draft well and then sign free agents to compliment your core players. The Miami model is a quick fix for a big-market team.
Tanking doesn’t hurt the league. Tanking, if anything, helps the league because it allows teams to completely rebuild. I don’t want to see a team draft a couple players and sign one free agent, especially an above average player like Jefferson, and then compete for the eighth seed. Charlotte isn’t helping itself by winning.
If you’re going to rebuild, finish the process. Jefferson is having a great year, but again, the Bobcats aren’t getting past Miami or Indy in the playoffs — if they make it there. Jefferson will be 31 when his contract expires, assuming Charlotte picks up his $13.5 million option in 2015-16. He’ll still be in his prime. How much would you love to pair him with Randle or Joel Embiid? That might never happen now.
It’s simple. Scope out the future of the NBA and plan accordingly. No team is good forever. Players age and move on. Commit to tanking and winning will soon follow. Patience is a virtue.
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