Tanking in the NBA: So Easy, Anyone Can Do It?

Examining how each team strategy to lose has played out thus far.

Surely you’re wondering whether this was a misplaced question mark, and if you really are indeed Ron Burgundy. However, I can assure you, this whole tanking business is not as easy as you think.

In anticipation for this year’s highly rated draft, we’ve seen many general managers opt to make moves that would see their team regress right away in hope of improving through the draft, and with varied success.

The Bucks let Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings walk with management clearly hoping to avoid finishing 8^th in the East again only to be swept into the summer with a lousy draft pick. At 8-36, everything is going according to plan for them, and if they can hold onto their basement spot they’ll at least be guaranteed a top-4 pick in the draft.

Philadelphia 76ers’ GM Sam Hinkie made clear his intention to tank and ensure the Sixers a top pick in 2014 when he traded Jrue Holiday, the youngest All-Star in the franchise’s storied history for injured rookie Nerlens Noel and a top-5 protected first round pick in the 2014 draft. Unanimously projected to be the worst team in the league, first year coach Brett Brown, rookie Michael Carter-Williams, and the veteran trio of Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, and Spencer Hawes have prevented the Sixers from losing at their projected rate, but with the fourth-worst record they are still likely to get a top-5 pick, especially if they’re able to trade any of their veterans before the deadline.

The Boston Celtics traded future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and head coach Doc Rivers, and with Rondo on the shelf for the first half of the season, the tank was evident. They’re 3^rd worst in the league, and bad by design. Not that Jordan Crawford is ever going to be an All-Star, but he was having a breakout season for the Celtics before they shipped him to Golden State. Rest assured Danny Ainge made all of these moves in hopes of the Celtics tanking their way to a top pick, and they’re well on their way.

The Orlando Magic have potentially been aided in their post-Dwight Howard rebuilding process by injuries to Nikola Vucevic (as long as they don’t become a norm). In the 18 games he’s missed, the Magic are 2-16, leaving them at 12-35 and 2^nd worst overall in the NBA. However, now that Vucevic has returned it’s entirely possible the Magic could start to pull together some wins. With teams likely calling about Arron Afflalo very often, it may be in their best interest to move him given the fact they just drafted Victor Oladipo, who plays the same position. It’s highly unlikely that any team with a chance to draft in the top-10 this year would be willing to spare it in exchange for Afflalo, but the Magic may have to consider dealing him for less than his value (which has never been higher), or risk playing themselves out of some ping pong balls.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns’ management surely never envisioned the Suns would sport the league’s eighth best record (28-18 overall) 46 games into the year. When they gave Marcin Gortat to Washington before the season it was confirmation that management was angling for better odds in the lottery, but first year coach Jeff Hornacek, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and the Suns have not cooperated. If someone tells you they saw the Suns competing this season, they’re either lying, crazy, or have to access to a time machine. Though they’ve showed no signs of slowing down even without Bledsoe and they could still conceivably end up missing the playoffs in the loaded West, but they’ve all but officially ruined management’s plan of bottoming out and adding a top pick alongside Dragic and Bledsoe.

Similarly, when the Toronto Raptors traded Rudy Gay (6-12 at the time) for Greivis Vasquez and a bunch of role players, everyone knew the Raptors management was trying to tank. Look how that’s worked out for them. Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Amir Johnson have stepped up among others as the Raptors have gone 18-9 since the trade, forcing GM Masai Ujiri to reconsider merely giving away Lowry or DeRozan in an effort to tank.

When the Chicago Bulls traded Luol Deng to Cleveland for the right to release Andrew Bynum, it was obvious that the Bulls were ready, willing, and hoping to play the lottery (and reportedly unwilling to pay Deng a dime more than $10M in the offseason), only to have Joakim Noah and the squad use it and the classic film Major League as motivation to make the postseason (9-4 since the trade). In the east a .500 record is more than likely to be good enough for a spot in the playoffs, and at 23-22 the Bulls’ management will have to consider amnestying Carlos Boozer or giving away more of their key producers if they actually want to slip into the lottery.

So as you see, management only has so much control over whether a team will ultimately succeed in executing their master plan of tanking for a top pick.