2007 Record: 7-9
QB Trent Edwards has the look of a future star. Depite throwing eight INT’s to only seven TD’s in 10 games last year, remember that Edwards was a mere rookie thrust into action due to inconsistent play and injuries from backup J.P. Losman. He simply makes the smart play, and takes chances at the right time. For all the criticism Losman has received, he is still a very capable signal caller and remains a solid potential starter in the future. After all, this is the same guy who put up above average numbers with little talent around him in 2006. If Edwards should regress, Losman could step in and the team would not miss a beat – at least in the short term.
The complimentary talent surrounding the QB is no longer a problem, starting in the backfield. A pair of second year players comprise the future at running back. First round selection Marshawn Lynch ran for over 1,100 yards and scored seven times as a rookie. Fred Jackson gained 300 yards in only eight games, averaging over 5 yards per carry. Most importantly for Lynch is that he was consistent in the 13 games he was healthy. While the Bills would obviously like to see higher numbers, the rookie from California never ran for fewer than 60 yards while topping 110 only once – the Bills knew what they were going to get each Sunday.
At the wide receiver position, Lee Evans finally has help. Entering his fifth season, Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards only a single time (2006). However, the speedster was often double-teamed and was usually the only legitimate threat on the field. Prior to 2007, Josh Reed was considered a disappointment. After racking up over 500 yards in each of his first two seasons as the #3 slot receiver, Reed has failed to match and surpass those numbers as a starter. That is, until last season, when he gained almost 580 yards on over 50 receptions. However, the Bills still felt they needed more, and rightly so. Enter 6’7″ freak, and second round pick James Hardy. Hardy has great athleticism and isn’t afraid to go up and get the ball, making him another great down field target. Gifted return man Roscoe Parrish will continue to get an increased look on offense, as his numbers have steadily climbed his first three seasons. Blessed with great speed, opposing secondaries will have to focus on Parrish just as much as Evans. Robert Royal is nothing spectacular, but he still provides a solid underneath passing option, as well as above average blocking skills. Look for the Bills to use a lot of 3-WR sets to get Hardy and Parrish on the field more, as well as to move Reed back into the slot position.
The Bills biggest concern on offense is their offensive line. Three of the lineman should be solid with RT Langston Walker, LT Jason Peters, and LG Derrick Dockery. However, note I said should. Peters is holding out for a new contract, meaning Walker has moved to the left side for now, degrading both tackle spots. The other two lineman are center Melvin Fowler and guard Brad Butler, both entering their second season with the Bills. Depth is also a concern because, well, they have none. If Peters continues to hold out, the Bills will have to rely more on the passing game, meaning fewer touches for Lynch and a path toward disaster.
Defensively, it all starts up front for the Bills, where they are both talented and deep. The highlight of the line is newcomer Marcus Stroud from Jacksonville. When healthy (Stroud hasn’t played a full season since 2005 and has missed at least five games each of the past two years), Stroud provides an above average interior pass rush to go along with his superb run stuffing, which the Bills hope improve their 25th-ranked run defense. Stroud will help take the pressure off of Kyle Williams, who burst onto the scene his rookie year with over 50 tackles and put up another solid performance last year. The addition of Stroud, as well as poor play, means former first round pick John McCargo, who has been a bust thus far, will be relegated to backup, which may help him in the long run. Spencer Johnson also lines up inside, but he has never showed the potential he demonstrated his rookie year with the Vikings. Still, McCargo and Johnson provide solid depth and good potential.
The quality of the tackles is matched by the ends. Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel provide one of the most consistent duos in the league. Although Schobel recorded only 6.5 sacks last year, the fewest since his rookie campaign, coaches (and myself) believe he will regain the form that saw him post 26 sacks the previous two years. Part of the reason for such optimism is the health of Kelsay, who was bothered by an ankle injury all season. Ryan Denney has the ability to start for most teams (50+ tackles, 6 sacks in ’06), but provides great depth for such a deep unit. Denney is also coming off an injury that forced him to miss half of 2007.
The line has to be solid because the rest of the defense does not have the quality or quantity to make up for poor play. Kawika Mitchell comes over from the Giants, but his lone season with the boys in blue saw a drop in production from his days in K.C. Additionally, Mitchell has recorded only eight sacks in his five year career. Angelo Crowell is a solid tackler (two seasons with 120 tackles), but consistency may be an issue. Like Mitchell, Crowell fails to provide a pass rush, with only 7 sacks in five years. It still remains to be verified, but middle man Paul Posluszny may be the star of the linebackers, if not the entire defense. The former Penn State star and second round pick had 26 tackles through only three games before suffering a season ending injury. Keith Ellison needs to regain his rookie form as he is the only decent player off the bench.
The biggest mystery of the entire team may be the secondary. Jabari Greer and Terrence McGee provide an uninspiring presence at corner, as the Bills struggle to replace Nate Clements, who left during the 2006 off-season. The Bills hope to have found that replacement in first round selection Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin will certainly see time on special teams, where he can easily demonstrate his blazing speed, but the number of opportunities he gets on defense remains to be seen. I would like to see Ashton Youboty get a shot at starting, but that would require him staying healthy an entire year, something he has failed to do his first two years. Will James gives the Bills another option, but he has also been plagued by injuries, with one good year sandwiched in between his ailments.
Unlike McCargo, the Bills’ other 2006 first rounder, Donte Whitner, has more than lived up to expectaions, recording at least 89 tackles his first two seasons, and providing a safety net for the lackluster corners. Ko Simpson missed all of last year with injury, but he played well enough as a rookie to regain the starting spot this year over George Wilson. At 6’1″, Simpson can help out on most jump balls against taller receivers. Bryan Scott may challenge for Simpson’s spot in case of injury or poor play. Scott recorded almost 100 tackles with the Falcons in just his second season, but has yet to find that form since. Rian Lindell and Brian Moorman provide a solid kicking game, while the return team, especially with the addition of McKelvin, is one of the best in the NFL.
The Bills were the runaway for second in the AFC East until the Jets and Dolphins acquired new QB’s. Now, not only must they contend with the strong AFC, but also their division foes, who, until the acquisitions, were perceived as two of the weaker teams in the conference. Keep in mind – Edwards, Lynch, Posluszny, Whitner, and Simpson will all be in only their second or third year. That’s a lot of pressure on a very young nucleus. Is this the year the Bills “circle the wagons”? Unfortunately for fans in Buffontolo (that’s a combination of Buffalo and Toronto), I think the Bills just miss out on the playoffs, but gain valuable experience for 2009.
John’s 2008 Prediction: 8-8
Ian’s 2008 Prediction: 9-7
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