Team Preview: Detroit Lions

Tom Petty wrote, “The waiting is the hardest part.” For Detroit fans, the only relevant sympathizers might be fans of Pirates baseball. However at least the Pirates, throughout their struggles, have made some changes in the front office. Since Matt Millen took over in 2001, Detroit has posted a 31-81 record. 7 of those 31 wins came last season.
Remember, this was a team that reached the playoffs six times in 9 seasons during the 1990s. One would think that a team at the bottom this long would have improved via the draft. Wrong. Millen’s biggest failure has been his inability to draft well. Some of his highlights (or lowlights) include Joey Harrington (#3 in 2002), Charles Rodgers (#2 in 2003), and Mike Williams (#10 in 2005).

Before last season, quarterback Jon Kitna guaranteed a 10-win season. The team started off with promise, coming out of the gate with a 6-2 record. The wheels fell off the wagon down the stretch as the Lions went 1-7 in the second half. The Lions enter this season with 7 consecutive losing seasons on their heels. The team has the young talent to develop into a contender in the NFC North. With the retirement of Brett Favre in Green Bay, Jon Kitna becomes the most experienced quarterback in this division. I refrain from saying “best” because no one has really seen what Aaron Rodgers can do.

Could this be the year the Lions finally break their losing streak? The guys over at Pride of Detroit don’t seem to think so. The Lions have been blasted (for good reason) by Yahoo! blogger MJD in his Shutdown Corner.

The Lions have the 10th hardest strength of schedule, but much of that is due to having to play the AFC South, none of which posted a losing record last season. From the NFC, they get the NFC South, whose champion (Tampa Bay) they beat 23-16 last season. Can Detroit make it to .500? Their schedule mirrors last season, with the easier games at the beginning and a hard stretch run, featuring Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota and Indy as the calendar turns into December. However, only the Indy game is on the road. Maybe, just maybe, the Lions could pull a win or two out of that stretch and make a run at .500. And a run at .500 in the NFC means a run at a playoff spot.

In the NFC North, Minnesota is the trendy pick to win the division, but Tavaris Jackson is an unproven Quarterback with an average receiving corps at best, which means teams will stack the box against AP, forcing Jackson to beat them through the air. Could the Detroit-New Orleans game in Week 16 be a battle of division leaders? That’s a scary thought, but it very well could happen. With rookie running back Kevin Smith and 1st round pick Gosder Cherilus a mammoth at tackle, the offense may become multi-dimensional. Additionally, with the departure of Mike Martz, we may see more of a running game out of the Lions next year, which will help them out when the temperature drops (even though they play in a dome).

For as good as their offense could be, their defense is that bad. The Lions defense was last in the league in Yards Allowed (377.6/game) and Scoring Defense. The next closest was Buffalo at 362. The Lions D was also the 4th-most penalized and allowed the 2nd most time of possession. Only Detroit and Minnesota gave up over 4000 passing yards last season, and Detroit gave up the most passing TDs with 32 (only Detroit and New Orleans were over 30). Only Oakland gave up more rushing TDs than the Lions.

The only big move the Lions made in their league-worst secondary was to trade for Browns CB Leigh Bodden. As a side note, the Browns were 28th in the league in Passing TDs allowed. The Lions spent 4 draft picks on their defensive front seven. What does this mean? That the Lions secondary will once again be mincemeat for opponents. While drafting an Offensive Lineman was a good choice by Millen, he did nothing to get help for his foundering secondary. While they have the offense to stay in games, they don’t have the defense to stop teams, which will result in a lot of high-scoring shootouts. If you’re a fantasy owner, you’ll probably want a Lion or two on your team, as long as it’s not the defense.

2007 Ranks:
Total Offense: 19th
Scoring Offense: 16th
Total Defense: 32nd
Scoring Defense: 32nd

Until their defense improves, this team won’t make it over the hump and challenge for a playoff spot. Maybe their defense will step it up this year, but I don’t see it happening. Then again, in this bad division, anything could happen.

Ian’s 2008 Prediction: 6-10
John’s 2008 Prediction: 9-7