2007 Record: 4-12
Despite missing out on Darren McFadden, the running game still boasts four solid, if unspectacular, players, led by Thomas Jones. Jones has rushed for over 1,100 yards each of the last three years, including his first with the Jets in ’07. Leon Washington is a quick back who ran for 650 yards as a rookie, but only gained 350 last season after seeing his carries cut in half. With a more balanced offensive attack, expect his numbers to improve, assuming he gets enough chances. Jesse Chatman, who had a career year in 2007 after missing the previous two seasons, and former Raven Musa Smith will also compete for touches in a very deep backfield. All the options will get the benefit of following Tony Richardson, one of the best fullbacks in the game.
The receiving corps has a chance to be very good with Favre directing the offense. Despite recording the fewest amount of receiving yards since his rookie year, Laveranues Coles still provides Favre with a solid #1 option, much like Donald Driver did for so many years. Opposite wide out Jerricho Cotchery surpassed one thousand yards for the first time in his four year career. However, he will be pushed by second year converted QB Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey, a second year receiver who missed all of last year with a foot injury. Smith can be very dangerous on trick plays, while Stuckey has solid down-field speed. Also keep an eye on rookie Marcus Henry, a big 6’4″ target with solid hands.
The tight end position has the potential to be as deep and productive as any in the NFL. Starter Chris Baker set a career high with just over 400 yards last season. However, the organization felt an upgrade was needed, so the team moved up into the latter stages of the first round and selected 6’4″ Dustin Keller. Keller has very good speed, coupled with great hands. Early comparison: Chris Cooley of the Redskins. However, Keller’s currently poor blocking skills have him third on the depth chart behind Baker and Bubba Franks, a good all-around blocker who comes over from the Packers.
The Jets will have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL protecting their new quarterback and stable of running backs. Third year studs D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold anchor the line at LT and center, respectively. The twin 2006 first round picks are joined by veterans Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, both of whom have gone to multiple pro-bowls. Brandon Moore completes a very formidable line. Beyond the starters, however, is little depth, so potential injuries are a concern.
The Jets’ defense is hard to figure out. They have the players and the coaching to adequately support the offense in a playoff run. However, inconsistent play, as well as injury concerns, may prevent the unit from reaching its full potential. The star of the line is end Shaun Ellis. While he still provides an above average pass rush and run-stopping ability, Ellis has only topped 60 tackles once in his career, while recording only 12.5 sacks during the last three seasons after posting 11 in 2004 and 12.5 in 2003. He no longer needs to be spectacular, however, after the emergence of Kenyon Coleman, who nearly tripled his career high in tackles after coming over from Dallas last year. The Jets also added tackle Kris Jenkins from the Panthers in hope of solidifying their 29th-ranked run defense. The coaches are hoping Jenkins regains the form that made him a pro-bowler in 2002 and 2003, while avoiding the injuries that cost him most of the ’04 and ’05 campaigns. If the three lineman don’t perform up to expectations, the Jets will be in trouble due to the lack of depth found on the entire defense, especially evident on the line.
Gone is Jonathan Vilma, who didn’t fit coach Eric Mangini’s system. In comes Calvin Pace from Arizona. After playing defensive end his first four years, the Cardinals moved Pace to LB last season, where he responded with a career high 98 tackles (previous high of 32) and 6.5 sacks. It obviously remains to be seen whether Pace can consistently put up such numbers, but he will nevertheless be looked upon as the new anchor of the defense. Bryan Thomas lines up on the other side, but he will now be pushed by sixth overall pick Vernon Gholston. Thomas had a great ’06 season, shattering his career high totals. However, he returned to his career average form in 2007, and has the highly touted rookie waiting in the wings right behind him. Luckily for Thomas, Gholston is still struggling to make the transition from end to linebacker, and is in no way ready to start the season opener. The middle is shut down by veteran Eric Barton and youngster David Harris. Barton has lost a step in recent years, but still provides a solid presence and able tackler. Underrated at Michigan, and even on draft day, Harris may be the AFC’s version of Patrick Willis. He’s not as athletic, but he always makes the smart play, and is a superb tackler. David Bowens provides great depth on the inside if needed.
For as good as the LB unit is, the corner position may be better when healthy. 2007 first round pick Darrelle Revis (87 tackles, 3 INT’s as a rookie) and 2005 second round pick Justin Miller form one of the best young duos in the league. Although he is recovering from a serious knee injury that forced him to miss most of last year, and despite not possessing the physicals tools or overall talent of Revis, Miller has the speed to run with any receiver in the NFL. If completely healthy, look for Miller to return kickoffs, where he made the pro-bowl as a rookie. Last year, Hank Poteat finally saw action on defense in every game (not just on special teams). He posted a career best 37 tackles and recorded his first two interceptions of his career. Poteat, Green Bay castoff Ahmad Carroll (also coming off an injury), and David Barrett provide the secondary with great depth.
Kerry Rhodes is expected to pick up his play at the safety position. Although his INT numbers have risen from one to five the last three years, his tackle totals have dropped from 106 in 2005 to 68 last year. He must return to his rookie form for the defense to truly succeed because the other safety options are below average at best. Mike Nugent is a solid kicker with a good leg. He may be ready to take the next step into elite kicker status.
The Jets have alternated 10-6 and 4-12 records the last four years. If they keep that trend, they may be able to squeak into the playoffs. They certainly have the talent to achieve such a task. They finally added the potential missing link at quarterback to compliment a solid running game. The offensive line will be able to keep Favre healthy throughout the season, meaning the pressure is on the defense to perform. If Jenkins and Miller can stay free from injury and return to form, you’re looking at a playoff team with an outside shot to dethrone the Pats.
John’s 2008 Prediction: 10-6
Ian’s 2008 Prediction: 7-9
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