Ten Bold Predictions as the Deadline Approaches

The 2014 MLB trade deadline is about 24 hours away.  This is the best time to be a blogger, no matter how inaccurate our predictions or take turn out.  Grant Brisbee ran a great piece about fake trades here.  The long and the short of fake trades is that they are incredibly fun and usually incredibly ill-conceived.  The omniscient Jim Bowden, who shouldn’t have a job but is employed by ESPN and probably has a few connections around baseball due to his time as an inept GM, wrote that Chase Headley was probably heading to the Blue Jays with a “moderate chance” that he wind up in the Bronx just four hours before he was traded to the Bronx.  With an understanding that I would like to be mocked, lambasted, and lampooned, but neither drawn nor quartered, for any of the speculation that follows, I present Ten Bold Predictions for the 2014 Trade Deadline.

1. Mets SP Bartolo Colon is traded to the Pirates for OF Josh Bell and a PTBNL.  The Mets pay for most of Colon’s remaining salary.

With this trade, the Mets effectively pay for a quality OF prospect.  The Mets outfield has been barren since the departure of Carlos Beltran. Yes, Angel Pagan was good for a few years, but he was traded before he was an established player.  The Mets have been slow to spend in recent years but their $84 Million payroll this season (after a $142 million mark in 2011) represents a new low.  I expect the Mets to start opening their wallets again this summer/winter in preparation for a run at the postseason in 2015.  This trade represents the start of that.

For the Pirates, Bell is largely an expendable asset.  Their outfield is set with McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco.  For good measure, the Pirates boast an outfield prospect more highly regarded than Bell in the form of Austin Meadows.  Colon helps to solidify their rotation that has been reliant on Jeff Locke for too much over the past two seasons. They also get a solid innings-eater in the event that Gerrit Cole’s shoulder woes continue. Essentially free dependable innings, with upside, for a good-not-great prospect is a must do for the Pirates.

2. Rays SP David Price and RP Grant Balfour are traded to the Dodgers for prospects Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and MLB OF Carl Crawford.

Because part of this trade has been rumored for so long, I wanted to spice it up by including Crawford in the mix.  Crawford returns home to Tampa though his most successful years are likely behind him.  The Dodgers would have to kick a lot money to the Rays to pay for Crawford’s $62 Million owed through 2017.  Still, with Crawford, the Rays would have a player that can help in a number of ways.  He’s no longer the 600 plate appearance, 7.0 WAR player that he was from 2010, but, in the correct situation, while leveraging the correct matchups, Crawford can be an excellent contributor. If any team can turn Crawford into a valuable player again, I think it is the Rays.  If that doesn’t work out, an OF of Wil Myers, Joc Pederson and Desmond Jennings seems pretty nice next year.

I managed to write 129 words about this potential trade without even getting into the downright scary rotation that would form in Hollywood.  Kershaw, Grienke, Price, Ryu, Beckett? What? Kershaw is from another planet; Grienke has a 2.68 ERA since joining the Dodgers last year; Price leads the majors in strikeouts and has a 3.08 ERA; and Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 3.17 career ERA in the Majors and allegedly just learned Kershaw’s slider.  

3. Alex Anthopoulos and Dayton Moore spent over 13 minutes apiece in conversations regarding yesterday’s Danny Valencia/Erik Kratz/Liam Hendricks trade. 
4. Marlins LHP Mike Dunn gets traded to the Blue Jays for 1B prospect Matt Dean.

The Blue Jays relievers currently rank 29th in wOBA allowed versus lefties.  Their .337 mark effectively makes every left-handed hitter Buster Posey in the late innings.  They have to find a solution if they want to continue to fight for a playoff spot.  Note that this could be a larger move if the Blue Jays decide they want to add a SP too.

5. Padres SP Ian Kennedy, and RP Dale Thayer get dealt to the Baltimore Orioles for  prospects Hunter Harvey and Tim Berry.

The Orioles get one of the most underrated starters of the year, a guy who may be benefitting from palying his home games at PETCO, but is posting a 3.66 ERA, and is 9^th in the Majors in strikeouts.  They also address a weak bullpen corps.  The Orioles need to improve the bullpen as the group has performed adequately, but is not built for postseason success.

Going to the Padres are two prospects who vary greatly.  Hunter Harvey is the son of a former MLB closer, a former first round pick, and a guy who throws hard.  Tim Berry is my new favorite prospect.  He was signed in 2009 after being a 50^th round draft pick.  He’s never going to be a star in the majors, but has worked his way into the Orioles’ top 10 prospects.  I’m a big Berry fan.

6. Red Sox SP John Lackey gets traded to the Royals for prospect SS Raul Mondesi Jr. and MLB OF Jarrod Dyson.

The Royals have to be in win-now mode.  They made a huge win-now move in dealing Wil Myers to the Rays for James Shields. Shields is set to be a free agent at the end of the season and the Royals have enormous payroll limitations that make it difficult to see Shields returning to KC.   Having not made the playoffs since 1985, the Royals have to be willing to make a move to get there sooner rather than later.  With GM Dayton Moore and Manager Ned Yost both feeling the heat to win, I expect the Royals to make another win-now move.  Lackey, with his miniscule salary next year, is the perfect target.

7. Jon Lester (bizarrely) does not get traded. 
8. Red Sox LHP Andrew Miller is traded to the Atlanta Braves for Mauricio Cabrera and some guy.

Is “some guy” included in most fake trades this time of year after 1,000 words?  I think so. 

       9. White Sox LHP Jose Quintana gets traded to the Texas Rangers this offseason for a lot.

When this happens, you better believe that I am writing a gloat piece regarding the crystal ball that I keep in my office at OTBB World Headquarters.

      10. Brewers acquire INF-OF Emilio Bonifacio for prospect RHP David Goforth.

The Brewers need to acquire depth at the trade deadline, but I’m not exactly sure where.  So how about a guy who plays everywhere? Bonifacio is healthy again, but has lost some of the mojo that he had to start the year.  He’s only signed through the end of the season, so for a few months of a backup player,  the Cubs get a minor league closer with a cool name.  Goforth profiles as a mid-late innings reliever with a good fastball.  This move isn’t sexy, but it’s the type that could make a big difference for the Brewers as they look to ward off the Cardinals and Pirates in the Central and make good on my pre-season playoff prediction.

-Sean Morash