In as much as Preseason games have proven completely worthless when it comes to predicting the future, the regular season opener can sometimes produce the same result.
Yes…you can take a lot out of an opening game, and it’s amazing how many times a team’s problems in game one transcend throughout the regular season.
But time after time, an opening day win, or loss for that matter, has proven to be the exact opposite from what would happen the rest of the year. For example, in 1999, The Bucs hosted the NY Giants. Tampa Bay would lose 17-13 and look absolutely terrible in the process. The season looked lost, but the Bucs would end up going to the NFC championship game.
But to make the other side, two major trends held true most of the year, and they had a big play in why the loss was so frustrating. The defense held the Giants to under 100 total yards of offense: yet we lost! The offense couldn’t score any points, and the defense shut down the Giants all game. That’s pretty much what the rest of the NFL had to deal with too!
What about the SuperBowl Season? Just outside of our 10 season look, the Bucs opened with a home loss to the Saints. How did they lose? A pick six from the punter in overtime! Yet at the end of the year, we hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
So let’s take a look at the last ten years of opening days, how they represented the final outcome on a letter grade to represent how the opening game told the story at the end of the year. That way no matter if the Bucs beat the Jets 28-0, or lose 35-7…you’ll see it’s a long year.
2003 Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
The Bucs were the last Super Bowl winner to have to open on the road, and it was ten years ago. It was also the very first game at the Eagles new home called “The Link”. The Bucs shut out the Eagles 17-0, on the back of not one, but two miracle Joe Jurevicious TD tip to himself catches. The Bucs held Philly to under 150 passing yards, and 247 total yards. It looked like the Bucs SuperBowl defense still. In the next 3 weeks, the Bucs would lose to Carolina at home because of a missed extra point, and the infamous Monday Night collapse, allowing 3 Indi TDs in 4:10. The Bucs defense was a shadow of itself, and John Lynch and Warren Sapp would be gone by the end of the year.
Won 17-0/ Finished 7-9
Predictor of what was to come? F
2004 Tampa Bay at Washington– The Bucs were offensive! And I don’t mean they had one, because The 
Bucs rushed the ball for 30 yards. The Defense gave up a 64 yard Clinton Portis TD run in the first Quarter, and it was only a Ronde Barber blocked punt return for TD that kept the score close. Bucs lost 16-10 and it was the first of 4 straight losses to start the season.
Bucs rushed the ball for 30 yards. The Defense gave up a 64 yard Clinton Portis TD run in the first Quarter, and it was only a Ronde Barber blocked punt return for TD that kept the score close. Bucs lost 16-10 and it was the first of 4 straight losses to start the season.The Season: The Bucs tried to repeat what happened in 2002, bringing in experienced Veteran players to make a SuperBowl run. Problem was, this group of aging vets was exactly that. Ageing. In the end, the Bucs had the worst season since 1996. The Benching of Brad Johnson would set the stage for Brian Griese to have one of the best passing years in a Bucs uniform.
Lost 16-10/ Finished 5-11 Sign of things to come? B
2005 Tampa Bay at Minnesota- Bucs were heavy underdogs to the Vikings, but upset them behind the running of Cadillac Williams, who went over the top on the last run of the game. Trying to get a first down on 3rd and 1 with 1:26 to go, Cadillac took it the distance. Vikings QB Dante Culpepper would see the beginning of the end of his career after the departure of Randy Moss. Bucs would take the first 4 games of the year before getting upset by the JETS behind the off the couch passing of Vinny Testeverde. Midseason, Brian Griese would go down, but the Bucs would continue to win behind the arm of Chris Simms. Defense held Vikes to under 300 yards, finished the year Ranked No.1
Won 24-13/ 11-5 NFC South Champs, lost to Redskins 1st Round 17-10 Things to come? A-
2006 Baltimore at Tampa Bay – Chris Simms was absolutely horrible and set the pace for the season for terrible QB play. The Bucs gave up a TD drive of over 6 minutes, and in irony, the same way, they ended the season, as the Bucs defense fell apart. Tampa Bay was lifeless losing 27-0, and other than a 62 yard FG to win a game in the last second in a game the defense gave up a 14 pt 4th quarter lead, this was one of the worst years of Bucs football ever. Jon Gruden would go with preseason darling Bruce Gradkowski until it was shown the Polish Popgun had NOTHING in common with a real starting QB. Former 49er Tim Rattay would take over and almost pull out a win at Chicago in an offensive fireworks game that showed Gruden made the wrong choice on his QB after Simms went down. By the time the year ended, the Bucs looked like a franchise in need of rebuilding, needing a QB, and a lot of defensive help.
Loss 27-0/4-12 Last place. Future foretold? A
2007 Tampa Bay at Seattle– The Bucs played a good offensive game but settled for 3pts too many times, which Seattle scored TDs. Despite playing on the opposite side of the country in the home of the 12th man, the Bucs played tough until the very end under new Bucs Free Agent QB Jeff Garcia.
Like the game played, the Bucs played tough all year, behind inspired QB play from Garcia, and RB Earnest Graham, who became the starter when Cadillac Williams went down with his first knee surgery vs Carolina. Both Cadillac and Garcia went down in this game, and as a precursor to the real season, both guys went down at some point. The Bucs invested time and money on the offensive line for the future, getting Davin Joseph, and picking up free agents too. One of those would go down from injury , who would open the door for LT Donald Penn. Two of our OLinement got their start in this year. In the end, injuries would take their toll, as this would be the last year for a productive Joey Galloway, and the last playoff appearance for the Bucs.
Loss 20-6/ 9-7 NFC South Division Champs, 1st round loss to NY Giants. Told the story of 07? B-
2008 Tampa Bay at New Orleans– The Bucs were runner up losers in the Brett Favre sweepstakes, and it left QB Jeff Garcia a broken bitter man. The Bucs went with Garcia but benched him after this game for Griese, who was brought back in free agency. For several years now, the Bucs had no real QB to rely on like the teams they faced all year. Bucs rookie Aqib Talib was broken in early with a TD pass given up to a mistimed jump, something he would show more of over time as a weakness. Joey Galloway and Jeff Garcia missed a lot of preseason time together, and looked very rusty on the field. Garcia’s play never really recovered, and the Bucs felt the need to move on past the QB position, and Coach too.
Brees would throw for almost 350 yards, but it was the running game that suffered the most. At one point, the Bucs gave up 300 rushing yards in one game, and it was the end of an era, as Derrick Brooks would play his last game in the NFL. Monte Kiffin would call it quits too; it was truly the end of an era in Tampa Bay. Warrick Dunn returned to Tampa Bay for farewell tour.
Score Loss 24-20/ 9-7 Missed playoffs after 4 game losing streak when only one win would have qualified. Predict the future? C…
2009 Dallas at Tampa Bay– Yet another opening day loss, this one showed the Bucs weren’t going to be that bad of a team. They played the Cowboys close, and realistically had a good shot to beat them if not for backfiring of decision to let Matt Bryant go. The kicking of Free Agent Mike Nugent was horrible, and this game also showed the Bucs had no blocking tight ends. The Bucs moved the ball well, running up around 400 yards of offense.
The Bucs cleaned house, Firing Jon Gruden, going young with Raheem Morris, and drafting a future QB Josh Freeman. In his place, Byron Leftwich was brought in to play QB. Problem was Leftwich was washed up by this point. The NFL had figured him out, and he had the slowest release known to man. By the Time Josh Freeman got to play, the Bucs were 0-7.
Freeman won his first game as Bucs QB vs Green Bay Packers, and Bucs would end up finding their kicker in Connor Barth. But instead of being competitive like the Bucs were in this game, this ended up being the worst over all Bucs season since 1991.
Lost 34-21/3-13 Sign of things to come? D
2010 Cleveland at Tampa Bay- Call it a sign that the 2010 season was a fluke..the Browns were driving in 
the 2nd quarter, up 14-3, and could have made it a 21-3 halftime advantage. Instead, Ronde Barber picks off Jake Delhomme and the Bucs score in a few plays to close the gap. Josh Freeman had his best year, and you could tell it was going to go that way, with an awesome TD pass to rookie Mike Williams who tipped the ball up to himself. A Freeman TD pass to Spurlock gave the Bucs a rare opening day win.
The Bucs took this win and propelled them to a 2-0 start, and became the cardiac kids of Tampa Bay and the NFL going 10-6 and missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker that basically comes down to a blown call by an official in a loss to Detroit. The Bucs have never missed the playoffs with a winning record. Also…early games showed complete inability to run the ball…until Legerrette Blount became the latest 1000 yard rusher.
Score: WIN! 17-14/ 10-6 missed playoffs
Prediction from week 1? B+
2011 Detroit at Tampa Bay- The Bucs made the score respectable by scoring late, then getting the ball back. Defense gave up around 400 yards to Detroit in opening day at home, not something you want to see from a ‘championship’ team. The Bucs scored a TD on a Talib Pick 6, but the defense let Detroit move the ball at will.
While it wasn’t pretty, it wasn’t anywhere near as ugly was what we would see in a couple months. The chemistry on this team really good during the offseason, but something happened while in to play the Patriots in Wembley. Rumours swirled of players telling off Morris hotel lobby, none of which you would have dreamed of after watching week 1
Loss 27-20/ 4-12 after going 4-2 Future foretold? D-
2012 Carolina at Tampa Bay- Doug Martin finished the opening game 5 yards shy of a 100, the pass defense let Cam Newton pass all over, while the run defense gave up around 10 total yards… Pretty much a microcosm of the season. This was one of the few games that Wright, Barber, Barron and Talib all started in, and Cam only threw for 300 yards. That secondary never played together again.
Score WIN 16-10/7-9 Franchise records in Points scored, best ranked offense ever (9th), Most Yards Passing, Most TDs, First time ever with QB >4k yards +1000 WR+1000 RB. (all that and Mike Williams was 4 yards short of 1000 yards himself).
Prediction Grade : B+
So there you have it…in the last ten years, for the most part, the opener tells the story of the season, but not always. There is just as much of a chance that the Bucs could win or lose, and the season could go the other way. Last year, Freeman was shaky during preseason too…. He took the Bucs right down the field for a Touchdown on opening drive of 2012 vs Panthers
DON’T MISS SUNDAY MORNING’S GAME DAY….Tons and Tons of pregame material to read to get you primed for opening day!
Tomorrow we look at some great opening day games, and how the Bucs fare vs Jets
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