ESPN reported early Monday morning that the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Andy Dalton had agreed to a six-year, $115 million dollar contract. Sources told ESPN that Dalton will make $22 million within the first six months of the deal based on bonuses (signing, roster and workout) and base salary.
What is guaranteed is that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s impending payday just got a little bit sweeter. Currently ranked 53rd among quarterbacks in cap hit to their respective teams at $817,302, Wilson is definitely in his final year as the greatest bargain in the NFL.
Using Dalton’s six-year, $115 million dollar contract as an economic baseline, let’s take a look at a comparison of performance on the field for Dalton and Wilson in order to get a rough estimate of what Wilson’s contract might look like.
Wins and Losses
Fans are quick to point out a team’s win / loss record as a measure of the quality of the quarterback. Having watched some excellent quarterbacks flounder on horrible teams (Archie Manning comes to mind) I’m frankly a bit skeptical about the direct correlation between QB excellence and team wins in the absence of many other factors, but for the sake of argument let’s look at Dalton’s record as a starter for the Bengals and Wilson’s record as a starter for the Seahawks.
Andy Dalton
Dalton was drafted 35th overall in the second round in 2011 and started immediately as a rookie. The previous season, Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a 4-12 record and last place in the AFC North.
In Dalton’s first season, the Bengals improved to 9-7 and captured one of the wild card slots. They lost to the Houston Texans 31-10 in a game that Dalton threw three interceptions and no touchdowns.
In 2012, the Bengals again improved to 10-6, captured a wild card and lost to the Texans 19-13. Dalton threw for only 127 yards with one interception and no touchdowns.
Last year, the Bengals improved once again to 11-5, capturing the AFC North, but still losing their first playoff game, this time to the San Diego Chargers 27-10. On the bright side, Dalton finally threw a playoff touchdown pass. On the not-so-bright side, he threw another two interceptions.
So, in the regular season, Dalton’s Bengals are 30-18 for a 62.5 winning percentage. In the playoffs, he’s 0-3, with one touchdown pass and six interceptions.
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson was drafted 75th overall in the third round in 2012. The story is well known how the Seahawks signed Green Bay Packers backup Matt Flynn in the offseason to start at quarterback, but Wilson beat him out in training camp. The Seahawks were coming off two consecutive 7-9 records, albeit the 2010 losing record was good enough to win the NFC West and make a playoff splash by defeating the New Orleans Saints.
In 2012, Wilson led the Seahawks to an 11-5 record and a wild card spot. They beat the Washington Redskins in the infamous RGIII blows out his knee game by a score of 24-14, but then lost the following week to the Atlanta Falcons 30-28 on a heartbreaking Matt Bryant 49 yard field goal with eight seconds to go.
In the Redskins’ game, Wilson played fairly conservatively, as the field conditions dictated, passing for 187 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another 67 yards. In the Falcons’ game, Wilson opened it up, throwing for 385 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while rushing for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Last year, the Seahawks won the division with a 13-3 record and defeated the New Orleans Saints, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl.
So, Wilson’s resume sports a 24-8 regular season record for a 66.6 winning percentage, a 4-1 playoff record, including one Super Bowl victory.
Comparison on Wins and Losses
If Wilson has roughly a four percent better winning percentage in the regular season than Dalton (66.6 to 62.5), does that then translate into a contract four percent higher? Instead of six years $115 million, does Wilson then deserve six years $119.6 million?
But then what are those playoff wins and Super Bowl victory worth? Of the top 10 average salaries for QB in the NFL, 5 go to Super Bowl winners – Aaron Rodgers ($22 million), Joe Flacco ($20 million), Drew Brees ($20 million), Peyton Manning ($19.2 million), and Eli Manning ($16.25 million). The other 5 are Colin Kaepernick ($21 million), Matt Ryan ($20.75 million), Jay Cutler ($18.1 million), Tony Romo ($18 million), and Mathew Stafford ($17.67 million).
The average salary of these select Super Bowl winning quarterbacks is $19.49 million, while their non-Super Bowl winning counterparts average $19.1 million. So, let’s throw in another $480,000 per year for Wilson and up him to six years $121.5 million.
With this range of salary in the back of our minds, let’s also look at how Russell Wilson compares to Andy Dalton (and a few others) using advanced metrics.
Total Quarterback Rating
ESPN has developed the Total Quarterback Rating metric, or Total QBR, as an improvement on the more traditional Passer Rating that no one could ever fully grasp with its scale of 0 to 158.3. Most of the weighted measurement that make up Total QBR have an “average” number of 50, that’s still a little awkward at first for those familiar with 100 as normative scales, but easy enough to adjust to and understand. For further context, on the Total QBR scale, Pro Bowl level tends to range from about 65 to 70.
Andy Dalton
In 2013, Andy Dalton ranked 15th in Total QBR with a mark of 55.8. It is worth noting that Josh McCown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers qualified to be ranked with his five starts and leads the list with a 85.1 score. So, I’m not going to argue with anyone who might want to throw out that one outlier and just compare Dalton to the 13 QB’s ahead of him that started all or most of all their teams’ games.
Let’s break down some of the categories that comprise Total QBR and see where Dalton ranks.
Pass EPA, which measures “clutch weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts,” sees Dalton 13th in the league in 2013 at 55.1. To give that some context, Peyton Manning recorded a 117.3 Pass EPA. Drew Brees came in second with 96.9 and Phillip Rivers scored 91.8. The drop off after that includes Matt Ryan and Tom Brady in the 70’s, and then seven QB’s in the 60’s. Dawson is the first of the 50’s tier.
Only the best running QB’s add much value on running plays and predictably Dalton, not known for his running, ranks 16th in Run EPA, and 19th in Sack EPA. In terms of Total EPA, that includes passing, running, sacks, and penalties, Dalton ranks 10th .
So, by looking at the whole, as well as some of the key components, of Total QBR, it seems safe to say that Andy Dalton ranks somewhere in the upper half of quarterbacks in the NFL, upper third in some instances. He’s now being paid the 11th highest average salary in the league at $16 million.
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson’s Total QBR places him 13th (12th if we throw out McCown), with a 58.9 rating, two spots higher than Dalton and roughly 5.3% better than Dalton overall.
While an eye test may or may not have told you this. Wilson, thought of as a scrambling QB, actually has a higher Pass EPA than Dalton at 62.6 for 10th overall. The running can be a positive, as Wilson ranks 4th in Rush EPA, behind only Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick, but it can also lead to trouble. Wilson ranks 36th in Sack EPA. Mostly because of the sack rating, Wilson comes in two spots behind Dalton in Total EPA at 12th in the NFL.
Overall, the advanced metrics created by ESPN tend to place Wilson a tad higher than Dalton and if Wilson could improve his Sack EPA (which admittedly also lies with the offensive line), he could climb higher into the upper quarter of NFL QB’s.
Pay Day
Until the Andy Dalton contract was announced, the closest comp in the NFL to Russell Wilson was probably Baltimore Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco, who also won a Super Bowl but wasn’t necessarily considered one of the elite QB’s in the league. Flacco’s current average salary is $20.1 million with a $14.8 million cap hit for the Ravens this year.
While recently re-signed 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ($21 million average salary) doesn’t have the ring Wilson has, he is generally considered to be better statistically. Kaepernick ranked 7th in Total QBR with a 68.6 rating.
Now, Dalton provides Wilson with a nice comp, who neither has a ring nor matches Wilson statistically on the field. The Dalton signing should easily ensure that Wilson’s salary floor is the same $16 million average, with the ceiling being closer to Flacco’s $20.1 average.
Six years and $120 million seem definitely to be in Russell Wilson’s immediate future.
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