The 0-2 Hole

You never want to be fall behind and be in an 0-2 hole.

In baseball, the statistical probability of successfully getting on base or delivering a hit is significantly smaller than when the batter gets ahead in the count and for the Ottawa Senators, they have never won a playoff series in the eight instances in which they have fallen behind two games to none.

I was convinced the Senators were going to even the series after Patrick Wiercioch scored midway through the third period, but it was a sobering loss thanks to the Subban goal and the heinous unforced error by Eric Gryba in overtime that led to Alex Galchenyuk’s goal that squeaked through Andrew Hammond. It was a depressing way for the game to end and as I joked on Twitter this morning, I feel like last night’s events have prepared me for the possibility that the Maple Leafs will win tonight’s draft lottery.

Thanks to some poor puck support, the blue line’s struggles to move the puck quickly and efficiently in transition and untimely soft goals, the Senators have dug themselves into a hole. Heading into the series, the hope was that the Senators would be able to overcome the play of their third defensive pairing. The problem is that Ottawa has also had to endure some poor stretches of play from their second pairing, as well.

Even strength shot attempts were 26-17 Ottawa with Karlsson on the ice and 31-17 Montreal when he was off.

— Subcommander Adnan (@sens_adnan) April 18, 2015

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Even though the Patrick Wiercioch and Cody Ceci pairing was markedly better in game two, the Senators are not a good enough team to win consistently when two of its pairings are underachieving. It is even more difficult when the offence is hampered by injuries to Mark Stone (micro-fracture of the right wrist), whatever it is that is afflicting Bobby Ryan (seriously, did you see that shot of his from the hash marks last night?) and Dave Cameron’s reluctance to take leash off the team’s leading goal scorer, Mike Hoffman.

Amazingly, despite all of these issues, the Senators have lost two one-goal games and had the lead in each of them. If not for their glaring struggles in second period, perhaps they even earn a split in the series.

If there is a silver lining, it is that this team has clawed its way out of holes in the team’s past 30 games. Remember how they were written off after each of their non-regulation losses to the Toronto Maple Leafs down the stretch?

The Senators can dig themselves out of this hole. It sucks, but it’s not insurmountable. It’s not like the Habs are an incredibly dominant team.

You’re never out of it until you lose at home and when the final buzzer sounds on Sunday night, everyone might be singing a different tune.