Five Best Starting Pitchers of 2018
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this year.
Justin Verlander‘s first full year in Houston couldn’t have gone much better. His 2.52 ERA is the lowest it’s been since 2011 — you know, when he won the AL Cy Young and MVP award — while those strikeout and walk rates are both career-best marks. For someone with as impressive of a resume as Verlander, achieving those feats in his age-35 season is remarkable.
Max Scherzer is just a model of dominant consistency. This is his sixth straight season of hurling 200-plus innings with at least 5.2 fWAR, and he’s also managed to increase his strikeout rate in each of the last four years. His slider usage dropped more than 12 percentage points in favor of a cutter, which he threw at a 9.8% clip. Opposing hitters posted a 108 wRC+ against it, but the right-hander saw his strikeout rate with that pitch rise up to 41.9%.
Jacob deGrom is the man that has a good chance of stopping Scherzer from taking home his third straight NL Cy Young award, and it’ll take a historic season to do so. Since 2000, the only starting pitcher to finish with an ERA lower than deGrom is Zack Greinke in 2015 (1.66). The right-hander finished a month with an ERA above 1.80 just twice (April at 2.06, and June at 2.36).
Patrick Corbin is headed toward free agency, so he picked a great time to have a career year. His slider usage crept up to a ridiculous 41.3% clip, finishing second in baseball to only Jhoulys Chacin (44.0%). Corbin’s 2.15 slider value on a per-100-pitch basis was seventh-best in the league, while hitters mustered just a 25 wRC+, .432 OPS, and a 54.5% strikeout rate against the offering.
Gerrit Cole‘s overall production took a complete 180-degree turn from his recent days in Pittsburgh. His contact rate dropped eight percentage points compared to 2017, while his strikeout rate went up 11 percentage points, his swinging-strike rate increased nearly five percentage points, and he locked in single-season career bests in countless categories. Committing to throw higher in the strike zone also led to a 36.0% ground-ball rate, a number that never dipped below 45.0% in a season entering 2018.
About Matt Musico
Matt currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger. You can sign up for his email newsletter here.
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