August’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
After a solid start to the year, Carlos Carrasco suffered through a tough couple months — his ERA in May and June were both above 4.90, and his first-half ERA settled in at 4.12. He’s turned things on since the midsummer classic, though. What’s interesting is that Carrasco has surrendered hard contact more than 40.0% of the time in each of the last four months. However, August did bring his best month with regard to line-drive rate (18.4%), ground-ball rate (55.1%), and fly-ball rate (26.5%).
On the surface, August didn’t treat Justin Verlander great…outside of joining the 200-win club for his career. His SIERA is so good because the above strikeout and walk rates he put together are among his best this year. Opposing hitters put together a .366 BABIP against the veteran in August, partially engineered by a 25.3% line-drive rate. After seeing that number down at 15.8% prior to the All-Star Game, it’s up at 27.4% so far in the second half.
Patrick Corbin continues having a career year as he approaches free agency in the winter. His current 5.5 fWAR is more than his cumulative fWAR from his past three seasons (5.0), and the hurler is boasting a strikeout rate (31.0%) nearly 10 percentage points higher than last year (21.6%). Corbin is still using his slider a bunch, and he’s still seeing a ton of success with it. The southpaw is using it at nearly a 40.0% clip, watching hitters generate a 57.5% strikeout rate, .096 ISO, .186 wOBA, and 21 wRC+ against that offering.
Jacob deGrom doesn’t have many wins to show for his spectacular season, but his league-leading 1.68 ERA might actually be enough to take home National League Cy Young honors if he keeps this pace. The righty’s 24.1% soft-hit rate allowed is on track to improve for the third straight season, and these two tweets help further put his year in perspective.
Gerrit Cole is throwing his curveball at a 19.6% clip, which is on track to be a single-season career high. After generating strikeouts with that pitch 30.7% of the time in 2017, that number has gone up to 41.5% this year. His 5.4 fWAR has almost surpassed what he’s done in the last two years combined (5.6), and FanGraphs pegs his performance as worth $43.3 million. Just as a reminder, the Astros are paying him $6.8 million in 2018.
About Matt Musico
Matt currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger. You can sign up for his email newsletter here.
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