July’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
Chris Sale just hit the disabled list with mild shoulder inflammation, but you’d never know it by looking his overall body of work in July. He’s already part of the 200-strikeout club once again and is on track to post new career-high marks in strikeout rate (37.6%), swinging-strike rate (15.8%), and soft-hit rate allowed (28.8%).
Meanwhile, Justin Verlander just continues to impress as part of a ridiculously good Houston Astros starting rotation. His 2.24 ERA is on track to be the lowest of his career, and the 4.5 fWAR he’s produced thus far in 148.2 innings is already more than what he produced in 206 frames last year (4.1 fWAR). He’s also done it while throwing his fastball at a 61.7% clip, which would be the highest it’s been since 2009 (67.9%).
German Marquez has had somewhat of a yo-yo season — his ERAs in April and June were above 5.00, while they were below 4.00 in May and July — but he’s currently on the upswing. After watching his hard-hit rate allowed go up the first three months of the season (29.4%, 33.3%, 41.7%), it’s settled back down to 29.9% over the past month.
Zack Greinke just knows how to pitch, guys. In recent years, it seems like there’s constantly a concern over a drop in velocity, yet he manages to get past it. His average fastball velocity is down to 89.5 miles per hour, but he still boasts a 2.96 ERA through 136.2 innings. And just in case you were wondering, his eephus pitch has been straight filth — hitters posted an 11 wRC+ against it last year (he threw it 21 times), but that number has dropped to -42 (!!) so far in 2018 (he’s thrown it 73 times already).
Gerrit Cole just continues to impress. He took the loss Monday against the Seattle Mariners, but he struck out eight hitters while allowing just two runs in 6.2 frames. He’s easily on his way to career-best marks in strikeout rate (35.0%), swinging-strike rate (14.0%), and contact rate allowed (71.4%), all while inducing ground balls at his lowest rate ever (34.9%).
About Matt Musico
Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger. You can sign up for his email newsletter here.
Email
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
