June’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
How good has Chris Sale been this month? We can let his final appearance of June sum it all up — he held a powerful New York Yankees lineup to just 1 hit and 1 walk over 7 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts. His strikeout rate has improved with each month of the season (32.6% in April, 36.7% in May, and 38.7% in June).
The Cleveland Indians’ rotation has been fantastic, and a true breakout from Trevor Bauer is one of the big reasons why. After posting a career-high 3.2 fWAR in 176.1 innings last year, he’s already up at 4.2 in 113.2 innings this season. After throwing his slider at a career-low 4.4% clip in 2017, it’s currently back up to 14.4%. That pitch has generated a 0.0% walk rate, 57.0% strikeout rate, and a -24 wRC+ thus far. Whew.
James Paxton‘s ERA doesn’t look pretty, but his numbers are a little all over the place. Part of the problem were the 1.55 homers allowed per nine innings, which is his highest of any month so far this year. Outside of a 1.67 ERA in May, the southpaw has finished both April (5.12) and June (4.97) with an ERA above 4.90. At least his walk rate is going in the right direction (10.6% in April, 5.8% in May, and 4.9% in June).
Max Scherzer is the perfect example as to why wins and losses shouldn’t matter. He lost three of his four decisions in June, yet was still worth 1.2 fWAR. He’s allowing a 31.5% hard-hit rate overall, which is a little higher than his career norm. However, the three-time Cy Young winner is on pace for career-best marks in soft-hit rate allowed (23.8%) and infield-fly rate (19.1%).
For a rotation that’s dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness from certain areas, the young Luis Severino has clearly become the staff’s leader. His ERA has improved each month (2.61 in April, 2.03 in May, and 1.60 in June), and the right-hander has given the home fans a real show. Through 59 innings at the launching pad that is Yankee Stadium, Severino owns a 1.83 ERA, .234 wOBA allowed, and has surrendered just 0.61 home runs per nine innings pitched.
About Matt Musico
Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger. You can sign up for his email newsletter here.
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