May’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
If asked to guess which starting pitcher posted the lowest SIERA in May, chances are you wouldn’t have guessed Ross Stripling. Unless you’re a Los Angeles Dodgers fan. Maybe.
L.A. is crawling back toward .500 after a horrific start thanks to Stripling and the other Dodgers hurler on this list. At his current rate, the 28-year-old’s strikeout rate (17.7% to 24.3% to 30.1%), hard-hit rate allowed (32.8% to 27.0% to 23.0%), and SIERA (4.25 to 3.37 to 2.78) are all on pace to improve for the third straight year.
His curveball has also been filthy. Opposing hitters have struck out at a 69.7% rate, have swung and missed 16.9% of the time and boast a -39 wRC+ against that offering.
If asked to guess which starting pitchers produced the lowest SIERA in May, Max Scherzer would absolutely be one of the names to get mentioned. The veteran right-hander is the two-time reigning National League Cy Young award winner, and his start to the 2018 season has easily been his best of the last three years.
Max Scherzer is off to a better start this season than in either of the two previous seasons, both of which he won the NL Cy Young in. pic.twitter.com/IewuEFHt7s
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 31, 2018
It’s taken him just 79.2 innings to register 3.2 fWAR, which is more than half of what he ended up with in 2017 (6.0 in 200.2 innings). This guy is pretty good.
Houston Astros hurler Gerrit Cole has gone from being the best starting pitcher in April to simply the third-best pitcher. Talk about a decline, right? What’s interesting to note here is he’s remained allergic to ground balls.
Inducing grounders was a somewhat significant part of Cole’s game heading in to 2018. That’s all changed so far this year, as his ground-ball rate is just 32.9%.
Can we please take a minute to truly appreciate Corey Kluber‘s anemic walk rate in the month of May? I mean, that 0.7% mark is just ridiculous. If you can remember back to last year, his Cy Young campaign didn’t really get started until June 1st, when he returned from a stint on the disabled list. His cumulative stats since then are also ridiculous.
It's been basically one calendar year since Corey Kluber came off the DL to start last June 1.
Today, he made his 35th regular season start in that time. His numbers:
23-4 record
1.76 ERA
251 IP
164 H
312 SO
33 BB— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) May 30, 2018
While this year’s 35.9% hard-hit rate allowed is higher than normal, he’s managed to keep his ERA at 2.02 thanks to a .239 BABIP and 90.2% strand rate. Both of those numbers are on track to be career-best marks by a wide margin, so we’ll soon see how sustainable they are.
The Dodgers have had to lean more heavily on Walker Buehler than they would’ve liked over the past two months. When looking at his early-season performance, though, he’s putting himself in position to be the third Dodger in a row to win Rookie of the Year honors.
He only threw 9.1 innings in 2017, but there’s been a noticeable shift in pitch usage between his breaking pitches. Buehler threw his slider at a 7.3% clip and his curveball at a 22.9% rate last year. Those numbers have changed to 19.9% and 13.4%, respectively, this year. Both pitches have performed well, but his curveball has produced an 88.9% ground-ball rate, a 0.0% fly-ball rate, and a 6 wRC+.
About Matt Musico
Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger. You can sign up for his email newsletter here.
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