If you have been following along with this site since 2008 (when it was the Victoria Times), you know what this is all about. If not, I will catch you up. Back in 2008, Steve and I determined that the real problems with college football were deeper than the lack of a tournament. So much of the game was determined by polls, including those that were issued before the season started. No matter whether or not you had a post season tournament lor went with bowl games, there would always be some element based on polls, either the entrants into a bowl game or the at large teams entered in the tournament, or even the seeding of teams. The solution we found was to award only conference champions a berth into a tournament at the end of the year.
Ah, you say, but this creates more problems. It does, so we have tried to compensate for them. For seeding purposes, teams are rewarded for their record. Where team records are tied, strength of conference is a tie breaker. Conference strength is easily determined because there is a set cross conference schedule based on how teams and conferences did the year before.
Most importantly though, we reorganized the conferences geographically, so as to make sure that there was a more uniform distribution of talented teams across what would now be 12 conferences. The map above is a reflection of those new conferences. This ensures that you have to win your conference to get in, and you won’t get free passes by playing in a low budget conference or being the second best team in a good conference. Everyone has the same chance to get to and eventually win the tournament at the beginning of the season.
Since the end of the regular season, when Whatifsports posted their 2012 rosters, I have been working through the 2012 version of the simulation. If you have any question about the mechanics of the newly organized version of college football we established, feel free to ask, but we are pretty confident in it. As for the simulation, well, if there are any problems, blame Whatifsports.
REGULAR SEASON
California Conference – 2011 Champion: USC; 2012 Champion: USC
Order of finish: USC, Fresno State, Stanford, San Jose State, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, San Diego State, California, Hawaii
Comment: USC Won for the second year in a row, defeating Fresno State in the final week. For whatever reason, the sim didn’t care for Standford. This was USC’s 5th championship
Great Basin – 2011 Champion: Oregon; 2012 Champion: Oregon
Order of finish: Oregon, Oregon State, Utah State, Washington, Boise State, Washington State, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, UNLV
Comment: Oregon really struggled, including losses to Washington State and Texas Tech, but pulled through. I should note, every 4 conference group is a “pod” who plays all of their non conference games versus one another. They did in 2012 and 2013. It is based on how that team finished the year before. For example, USC will play Oregon, Fresno State will play Oregon State and so on. This is Oregon’s second entrance into the tournament
Dixie – 2011 Champion: Alabama; 2012 Champion: Alabama
Order of finish – Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, UAB, Auburn
Comment: This was a very realistic conference result. Alabama has won this conference 4/6 years.
Mountain West – 2011 Champion: Texas Tech; 2012 Champion: Texas Tech
Order of Finish: Texas Tech, BYU, Baylor, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico State, UTEP, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado
Comment: This conference is never any good, and it’s easy to see why. If Colorado could straighten things out, it’s much improved, however. And yes, the first 4 conferences had repeat champions. Texas Tech has won the Mountain West 3 times.
Great Plains – 2011 Champion: Oklahoma State; 2012 Champion: Oklahoma State
Order of Finish: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Nebraska, Tulsa, Kansas State, Arkansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Kansas
Comment: I have no idea why, but the sim has never cared for Kansas State, and this year was just another notch in that belt. Oklahoma has won the conference 3 times.
Midwest – 2011 Champions: Iowa; 2012 Champion: Notre Dame
Order of Finish: Notre Dame, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Ball State, Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Minnesota
Comment: This was a really bad conference, and the sim preferred Ball State over BCS team Northern Illinois for it’s MAC sleeper. Notre Dame broke through for their first championship.
Tobacco Road – 2011 Champions: Wake Forest; 2012 Champion: Middle Tennessee State
Order of Finish: Middle Tennessee State, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, East Carolina, Tennessee, Duke, North Carolina State, Western Kentucky, Memphis, Wake Forest
Comment: I think if you looked at this conference when we set it up, you never would have believed it would be this bad. And really, it’s strong in the lower and middle levels, but never produces a great team. Thus, Middle Tennessee somehow wins their first berth in the tournament.
New England – 2011 Champions: Penn State; 2012 Champion: Penn State
Order of Finish: Penn State, Rutgers, Boston College, Syracuse, Buffalo, Connecticut, Maryland, Navy, Temple, Army
Comment: Well, this is awkward. Penn State is suspended in real life for 4 years, but they still managed to win this conference in year one of the suspension. Rutgers had it in the bag, but then somehow lost at Navy in the final game of the season to drop them to second. Penn State has now won the conference 4 times.
Gulf Coast – 2011 Champions Texas; 2012 Champion: LSU
Order of Finish: LSU, Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech, TCU, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Texas, Houston, Rice, SMU
Comment: The sim has always given Texas a little bump and punished LSU, which has meant historically, the conference was dominated by Texas and TCU. Not this year! LSU and A&M surge to the top of the pile. With LSU winning the conference and finishing as one of 2 undefeated regular season champs (Oklahoma was the other).
Appalachian – 2011 Champions: Cincinnati; 2012 Champion: West Virginia
Order of Finish: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio, Louisville, Virginia, Marshall, Miami (OH), Kentucky
Comment: Another conference that has always been strong, but is rarely great at the top. Virginia Tech used to be a perennial entrant, and Louisville was a BCS team this year, but t was West Virginia, the conference’s default winner taking home their 2nd prize (though it seems like they should have more)
Great Lakes – 2011 Champion: Bowling Green; 2012 Champion: Michigan State
Order of Finish: Michigan State, Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron, Ohio State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan
Comment: Year to year, the sim does not care for Michigan, but this year was cruel. In the final week, they needed to win at home versus Michigan State and lost. Even more inexplicable was the hatred for Ohio State, who only won 4 in conference games in this disaster of a conference. Michigan State has won it now twice.
Florida – 2011 Champion: Southern Miss; 2012 Champion: Florida State
Order of Finish: Florida State, Florida, Miami (FL), Troy, Central Florida, Tulane, Florida International, Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Southern Miss
Comment: Florida State in real life was projected as a top team in the country, and in our fictional universe, they were just that, upsetting Florida to claim a spot in the tournament. The Seminoles have won the conference twice now.
POST SEASON TOURNAMENT
The first four seeds have a had a bye, and with 2 undefeated teams (Oklahoma and LSU) and 2 1 loss teams (Alabama and Florida State) it was easy to seed those teams. The next 8 seeds were West Virginia, Michigan State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, USC, Oregon and Middle Tennessee State. Tournament games were assigned to bowl games based on how long the games were around, and the championship game is rotated through conference specific sites. This year, the game would be in Dallas at Texas Stadium.
First Round – In the Peach Bowl, we had our first upset, as Texas Tech knocked off Notre Dame, who had trouble hanging on to the ball late. The score was 26-17. West Virginia easily handled Middle Tennessee State in he Gator Bowl, 59-36, as Geno Smith threw for 487 yards. In the Citrus (now Capital One) Bowl, Oregon easily slid past Michigan State 34-14. In what qualified as the awkward bowl, the Liberty Bowl featured Penn State and USC. Fortunately, USC ended the awkward-thon with a narrow 24-21 victory over Penn State
Quarterfinals – This round was rife with blowouts. Oklahoma marched past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl 45-14 thanks to 4 touchdowns from Landry Jones. Florida State had an even bigger margin over West Virginia in the Cotton Bowl, winning 55-14, with EJ Manuel throwing for 4TDs as well. Alabama and Oregon is the preferred title game of many this year. It wasn’t close in the sim, 38-3 at the Sun Bowl. USC went 7-5 in real life, but they were able to get to the Final 4 of the tournament, defeating LSU 35-19 in the Fiesta Bowl
Semifinals – Neither of these games was close either, really. In the Rose Bowl, #1 seed, undefeated Oklahoma was destroyed by EJ Manuel, who threw 5 more touchdowns and the rest of Florida State, 63-33. Alabama put on a bit more of a defensive display in the Sugar Bowl, defeating USC 25-10, reaching the Championship Game for the third time.
Championship – Florida State crushed two opponents on their way to the Championship game. Alabama was dominant in their path to the Championship as well, though they didn’t quite put up the offensive displays. This was their third time in the Championship, falling to Florida nad Oklahoma State in previous years (to Oklahoma State last year). Could they rectify this tradition? Yes. They held Manuel in check and put together a dominant ground game, with TJ Yeldon running for 154 yards. Alabama won by a score of 29-20 to win their first national championship.
If you would like to see the box score from the Championship game, follow the hyperlink. This year followed the real world more closely, I think, than any other year, outside of a few quirks (like Kansas State). With the wild changes in college football over the last couple of years, it would be nice to focus just on football and not on money for a while, wouldn’t it?
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
