The 2015 Angels’ Five Worst Losses

An argument can be made that missing the playoffs by a lone game, as the Angels just did, is the worst outcome for a Major League team. The club misses the playoffs and that sucks, but the added kick in the groin is still picking in the latter half of the amateur draft come June. There’s no glory in winning 85-ish games unless that gets you into the postseason. The Astros and Cubs are two recent shameless tankers and they’re cashing in with high draft picks this season by ending lengthy playoff droughts.

Another crappy byproduct of missing the postseason by one game? Thinking about all the missed opportunities. Remember that blown game in April you weren’t worried about because the season is so long and it probably won’t matter anyway? Guess what, it mattered.

Because I’m a masochist, I combed through the Angels’ 77 losses to determine which five were the biggest gut punches to their playoff chances. I tried to stay away from typical blown saves; closers blow one-run leads all the time and expecting the Angels to avoid any of those over a full season is unrealistic.

I also realize the tone-deafness of this exercise. After all, the Angels had their fair share of unlikely wins—their 85th win is the most improbable win I can remember in years. And given the Halos’ negative run differential and remarkable record in one-run games it’s possible they were lucky to be eight games over .500 as it is. And the Angels enjoyed a pretty good year of injury luck despite fielding an old-ish roster. Well, we’re going to ignore the good fortune the baseball gods bestowed on the Angels this season because as fans it is our duty to be unrealistic and focus on the ways this team got screwed over.

Here’s the five worst losses of the season. Flip the result of any of them and the Angels are guaranteed at least a tiebreaker game. If you flip the result of all five—in addition to outing your deadly sin as “greed”—then the Angels win the division. You already know what #1 is.

#5 – May 7: Astros 3, Angels 2

Angels’ highest win probability: 95.4%

I’m already breaking my rule about “no typical blown saves” but losses to the Astros are an exception. The Angels took a 2-0 lead into the ninth before Huston Street coughed up three runs. This loss immediately followed a series in which the Angels defeated the Mariners two out of three games and that series seemed MUCH more important at the time than the four-gamer against Houston. So that’s how long ago early May is.

This felt like just your average mid-season blown save. Houston was playing well at the time but they were going to crash and burn eventually. Whoops.

# 4 – July 25: Rangers 7, Angels 6

Angels’ highest win probability: 89.9%

For whatever reason, this game stuck with me more than most of the losses this season. Perhaps it was because it symbolically felt like the beginning of the downward spiral that consumed the club come August, even if in a vacuum it’s not THAT bad.  The loss was the team’s third in a row overall and clinched their first series loss since Father’s Day weekend in Oakland. They crushed the Rangers the following day to salvage a win, but that was the game in which Mike Trout hurt his wrist diving for a ball in center field, setting him up for a prolonged slump in August. (Unless the slump taking place right after his injury was a coincidence. I doubt it.) The Angels also blew two different multi-run leads in the game. Hector Santiago gave away a 4-1 lead earlier in the contest, signaling a regression we all knew was coming for him. The second, more damaging blown lead was thanks to Joe Smith, who squandered a 6-4 lead in the eighth and exited the inning with the Angels trailing 7-6.

Texas didn’t feel like a realistic playoff contender at the time, but the importance of this loss increased as it became clear the Rangers were for real. If it makes you feel any better, the Angels would have still finished behind Texas had the result of this game been flipped. No, that doesn’t make me feel better either.

#3 – June 3: Rays 6, Angels 5

Angels’ highest win probability: 94.9%

Here’s another game where Santiago blew an early lead, except this game took place was when he was still good (or lucky). There’s nothing special about this loss other than Santiago allowing two homers in the sixth inning to erase the 4-0 lead the Angels built for him. This loss was made more frustrating after the Angels tied the game in the bottom of the ninth to send the game to extra innings, which just gave Kevin Kiermaier the showcase to hit a game-winning homer a half-inning later. It was a common refrain for the Angels this season: late-game rallies that came just short of victory. The Halos tagged some of the best relief pitchers in baseball for runs this year—like Dellin Betances and Kenley Jansen—but routinely fell a run short of tying or winning the game. In this game, Albert Pujols had a chance to win in the ninth with a base hit; he grounded out to third.

#2 – September 30: A’s 8, Angels 7

Angels’ highest win probability: 85.2%

Relative to some of the other games on this list the Angels’ win probability wasn’t that high. We should expect the Angels to win if their probability reaches the mid-80s, but baseball is weird and random crap happens all the time. But what really sets this game apart…

HOW DO YOU LOSE A GAME AGAINST BARRY ZITO IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD TWO THOUSAND AND FIFTEEN?

The Angels had taken a slight half-game Wild Card lead over the Astros less than 24 hours before this game ended, and by the time the Angels lost we all knew the playoff hopes were done. It really didn’t matter what Houston did that night in Seattle (they won), this was a game the Angels had to have. They had their theoretical ace Garrett Richards throwing against a Barry Zito mummy. It was the most Angels loss of the season. A disappointing showing from Richards? Check. A lackluster offensive attack against an awful left-hander? Check? Bad base running? Yep. Mike Scioscia over-managing? You betcha. Piss poor defense that cost the Angels six unearned runs? :: face palm:: The Angels should have scored somewhere between 10 and ten thousand runs against Zito, and even though they didn’t they were still in a position to win the game! Then Taylor Featherston committed the costliest error of the season and Scioscia called upon Trevor “I almost literally don’t strike people out” Gott to work out of a bases loaded jam. Mind boggling stuff.

We should all blame ourselves. I admit to having way too much confidence heading into this game. I tried to correct that earlier in the day when I emailed the rest of the MWAH staff to tell them something was going to go wrong because I wasn’t concerned about the game at all. My reverse-jinx gambit failed and the Angels were toast four days before it became official.

#1 – Astros 5, Angels 3

Angels’ highest win probability: 99.7%

There was only one choice. You know what happened. Ninety-nine point seven percent. It’s almost impossible to lose a game in that scenario. That’s not even factoring in the two strikes on Preston Tucker before he homered, so the odds of an Astros comeback were probably even a little unlikelier. This loss was so bad it prompted our former compatriot, Garrett Wilson, to head to Atlanta to work for the Braves because he couldn’t deal with the Angels anymore. If you need cosmic proof the Angels weren’t supposed to make the playoffs, look at this play that would have won the Angels’ the game and allowed them to leapfrog Houston in the final standings.

The Astros are a better team than the Angels. Justice was served they qualified while the Angels were left home. The Halos would have easily been the worst team in the playoffs. But we learn every October that a team doesn’t have to be great to win the World Series. The 2006 Cardinals weren’t good, even. The Giants have won thrice since 2010 and they’ve never been close to being the best team. Last season, the Royals were a couple runs away from winning the whole thing and everyone thought they were a mediocre club that was fortunate to bank wins in a weak division. That’s why this loss to the Astros hurts so much now and why it will all winter. Once a team gets a ticket to the dance—especially with Mike Trout—anything can happen.