Well, we’ve made it to the break. It’s been a wild 89 games, filled with so many highs and lows that a stunt pilot would be nauseous by now. There have been injuries and underperformances, bounce-back seasons and base-running errors and through it all the Seattle Mariners have managed to get to the symbolic midway point with a 45-44 record.
All considered, it could be a lot worse. As Mariners fans, we’ve been through too many rough seasons. Seattle is, after all, the only Major League city that’s never hosted a World Series. Being over .500 at the break seems like a welcome improvement at first glance. But the reality is that the Mariners have fallen nine games behind the Texas Rangers in the division, and five games back in the Wild Card race. They’re not only five games back, but they’re trailing several other very good teams. This means that the Mariners would not only need to play extremely well in the second half, they need a handful of teams to fall apart as well.
The Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros are all ahead of the Mariners. And the New York Yankees are only a half-game behind them.
There are few things I hate as much as being the harbinger of negativity, but we’re on the bad side of probability. If this team wants to make the playoffs, it’ll need to win north of 89 games. That would mean going at least 44-29 the rest of the way. It’s a tall order, but the Mariners need to get red hot. Like, face of the sun, white flame, George Clinton with the full original line-up, hot.
Here’s the stupid part. I think it could happen.
What would that take? How could the Mariners win 45 out of their next 73 games, when they were barely able to go one-game over .500 in the first half with their offense performing better than any Mariners offense in recent history? The difference maker is health.
They have until Friday to get all of those minor nagging injuries healed. Among the most noteworthy players to be watching when the season resumes, are Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and Leonys Martin. Felix is scheduled to return to action next week after missing several weeks, and if the Mariners plan to make a run they will need the old Felix. They need the King to be the King. They need a shutdown ace who can guarantee a win every 5 days.
The team got some good news Sunday as Taijuan Walker has seen a foot specialist who confirmed that there is no structural damage in his ankle and confirmed that he’s dealing with tendonitis. He’s now wearing a boot for a few days and has been cleared to resume baseball activity next week. Assuming things go as planned, the best foot specialists around think he’ll be feeling 100 percent in no time. A healthy Walker is almost as important as a healthy Felix at this point. Taijuan has been on the edge of dominance for too long now, and while he looked like he was about to make a leap to the next level earlier in the season, June and July have seen injuries and inconsistency bring him back to earth. The Mariners will need him to finish strong if they have any chance at even a one game playoff.
Leonys Martin missed time with a strained hamstring about a month ago, and hasn’t been the same since. He’s been a step slow on defense, and at the plate he’s looked like the hitter Texas was so willing to let go of last year. Hopefully with a few straight days of rest, something a Major League season doesn’t allow, his body will heal and he’ll perform closer to the level he played at before his stint on the disabled list.
If those three players can rebound in the second half and the Mariners can benefit from some better luck with injuries for the next few months, they’re capable of putting together a winning streak. And they’ll need it. For any team to make up even five games, it needs to put together a good stretch. Win 10 games in a row, or only lose five times in August, or something like that. Seriously, we are behind some good teams and the only way out is winning in bunches.
Coming out of the break, we should see more quality starts from a healthier rotation. Our bullpen will consequently be better rested and more capable of holding leads. That was a difference maker in June. Our rotation couldn’t go deep, our bullpen got overused and naturally started to show the signs of wear.
The trade deadline is coming up in a couple of weeks, and the Mariners have been rumored to be looking for relief help, possibly even a new closer. While Steve Cisheck has been a solid addition, the other veteran relievers Jerry Dipoto acquired in the offseason haven’t panned out as hoped. Seattle could use a hard-throwing bulldog out there. What I would give for a Norm Charlton clone…
Outside of bullpen depth, or potentially some starting pitching depth, I don’t see the Mariners making a splash at the deadline. Our team is looking healthier and our offense has performed well. If we were a few games better or a few games worse, I can see making a big move one way or the other. But when you’re just a little too far out of reach to, “go for it,” and you’re still close enough that you might have a shot if you don’t start selling your movable pieces off for a brighter future, you kind of need to just stand pat. It’s sort of a, dance with the horse that didn’t entirely buck you, kind of mentality. Might not sound very sexy, but it’s probably the right way to go.
After applying my somewhat-capable math skills to the rest of the season, I think the Mariners are an 87-win team and will miss the Wild Card by between two and four games. That would mean at least a competitive second half and a lot of hope through the last month of the season. And it also means that all they would have to do to make the playoffs is be roughly three games better than I think they are.
They could totally do that! What the hell do I know? Every year some team plays out of its mind in the second half and sneaks in and the Mariners have a strong enough offense and talented enough pitching staff that they could very well be that team. They’re not out of it, but they’re another bad week away from it. So, no more bad weeks, problem solved?
In the meantime, enjoy watching Robinson Cano in his prime. Enjoy a trip up to Everett to see the team’s top draft pick, Kyle Lewis, in his first professional season, (he’s posted a whopping .950 OPS in his first 20 games, had a walk-off hit on Sunday and looks like the truth). Enjoy Edwin Diaz’s new slider grip. Enjoy watching Kyle Seager continue to get better every year and seeing Ketel Marte mature into a pesky lead-off hitter. Enjoy the sunshine at Safeco and the cheap beers at Cheney Stadium in Tacoma. Enjoy baseball in the northwest. And maybe, just maybe, the Mariners can get hot enough to tip the scale of probability. Maybe—for once—the Mariners will surprise us and be better than we think.
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