One of the running themes of this offseason is that the Angels are severely limited by their commitment to not breach the luxury tax threshold in 2015. For this reason, the rumors the Angels are involved in aren’t the sexy kind. There is no pursuit of Jon Lester or Max Scherzer. They aren’t even looking at Yasmany Tomas or Kenta Maeda. Instead, we’re getting the mildly depressing kind of rumors that involve shopping Howie Kendrick, primarily so they can dump his salary. Fun stuff it is not.
This self-imposed austerity could end up hindering the Angels’ chances to win a World Series in 2015. Arte Moreno seemingly has the money to pay the luxury tax, especially at the first offender level 17.5%, but he’s reportedly taking this anti-tax stand out of stubborness pride. Who would’ve figured Moreno for a Tea Party member, right?
In Arte’s defense, the Angels are right up against the tax line with just a few million in breathing room using the current roster. If the Angels were to spend anything significant this winter would, they’d go flying past the tax line. OK, fine. It isn’t my money, so flushing millions down the luxury tax toilet is a lot easier for me to stomach than it is for Moreno. I don’t like it, but I’ll try and see it from his point of view.
Fine, the tax is going to be an issue this year, we all saw it coming, we’ll cope. But what about next year? Surely the financial constraints will be eased then, no?
Umm, how can I put this delicately… NO. No, they won’t.
The financial situation doesn’t get a whole lot better for the 2016 season, as it turns out. With their existing guaranteed contracts and projected arbitration raises for Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago and half the bullpen, the Halos are on track to be about $30 million below the tax line for 2016. That’s a lot more breathing room to be sure, but there is one teeny, tiny problem in that they will kind of have a bunch of holes in the roster.
That $30 million in breathing room is going to disappear awfully fast as the Angels go out in search of a new starting second baseman, a new starting third baseman, a new starting catcher and a new closer. You know, trivial roles like that.
This is where having the farm system that the front office forgot becomes a problem. Dipoto has worked diligently to find cost-controlled pitching, but he’s done so at the expense of cost-controlled hitting. The Angels might be able to make up for letting Street walk after next season by supplementing the pen with arms like Cam Bedrosian, Jairo Diaz and Trevor Gott. But at third base, they Halos have almost nothing unless Kaleb Cowart reverses course on his way to being a giant bust. Second base is a bit better since Alex Yarbrough should be ready by 2016, but he isn’t exactly a high ceiling player. Grant Green could mix in somewhere in there, but he has yet to do anything to even prove he can hang onto a bench role. The biggest challenge will be finding a new starting catcher since the Halos are currently trying to figure out if they can even find a legit back-up catcher in their system.
For the Angels to fill all those roles and still field a contending roster won’t be easy and that’s before even looking at the 2016 free agent class and realizing that the best available player at each of those positions could well be Iannetta, Kendrick, Freese and Street, respectively.
Hopefully this means that Moreno has been planning all along to make his one venture into luxury tax territory the 2016 and the reason he’s avoiding it so fiercely in 2015 is so that he doesn’t get dinged at the 30% tier in 2016. After that, Moreno could be in the clear. Not only do several big contracts (Weaver, Wilson, Aybar) roll off the books after 2016, but the current collective bargaining agreement expires. That, in all likelihood, will lead to changes to the luxury tax system, including a raised tax line thanks to the influx of all the TV revenue since the last CBA was signed.
Well, that’s the theory I’ve talked myself into, anyway. If Moreno really does consider it a source of pride that he’s able to field a team that is not quite good enough to win the World Series but doesn’t pay the luxury tax, then next offseason will once again be about Jerry Dipoto trying to get creative on the trade market with what little prospect resources he has at his disposal. The sexy signings will just have to wait until the burdensome contracts from the last round of “sexy” signings all come to a merciful end.
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