Sometimes the collective Angels fanbase will latch onto a perceived phenomenon with the team. For example, there is an idea that the Halos get dominated anytime they face an unheralded rookie pitcher. Like that example, these perceptions usually proves false. This year, the phenomenon that at least appears to be plaguing the Halos is their propensity for giving up runs with two outs. But is that perception a reality?
In a word, YUP.
I actually expected the answer to be a hard “no,” figuring we were only noticing the two-out runs because the two-out runs are more memorable in nature. Nope, it turns out we are all very astute observers. Way to go, us!
So far this year, out of all the runs the Angels have surrendered this year 48.46% have scored with two outs in the innings. That’s… a lot. As the chart below shows (EDITOR’S NOTE: the table was removed due to formatting problems, so just take my word for it.), the Halos have given up the most two-out runs in all of baseball, tied with the toxic waste dump that is the Phillies.
What the table doesn’t show is that the percentage of two-runs for each team. That’s where the Angels really separate themselves. The league average is 37.57% in 2015, a rate that has been pretty steady over the last five years. In fact, the 48.46% of runs with two outs is easily the highest percentage for any team over the last five years. The next closes was the 2010 Mets who gave up 44.33% of their runs with two outs.
That’s pretty depressing, but it should be encouraging as well. With percentage that is such an outlier in recent history, that almost certainly means that matters have to improve. Whether that improvement means not giving up those runs at all or just redistributing them to earlier in the inning, I cannot say.
I’d be inclined to believe that it will lead to at least a small reduction in runs, but there is also some reason to think that the Angels are at least partially at fault for having such a high two-out run rate. Their biggest issue is homers, which shouldn’t come as a big surprise.
Like their two-out run rate, their two-out homer rate of 37.84% is well above the league average of 30.32%. That’s a high rate for the Halos, but it isn’t a historical outlier. They just have pitchers that give up a lot of homers. Guys like Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker are candidates to see their HR/9 rate come back to earth in the second half, but it isn’t as if they are strangers to coughing up the longball.
While that might not be encouraging in regards to the Angels drastically reducing the number of runs with two outs the Angels allow, it should get a little bit better over the rest of the season. More importantly, the phenomenon we all noticed checks out as being totally real. I’m sure that will serve as a wonderful consolation prize should all these two-out runs end up costing the Angels a spot in the postseason.
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