Billy Eppler is making some solid headway in building the 2016 roster, but there’s still a lot of work ahead. While left field is certainly the biggest point of concern, there are no shortage of options for the position. The same cannot be said for third base, however. There are a couple potential solutions in-house and/or on the open market, but none is all that inspiring. Hence it doesn’t take much to imagine Eppler taking a post-turkey nap this weekend and dreaming of scenarios where their Opening Day third baseman is neither David Freese, Kaleb Cowart, Kyle Kubitza, nor Daniel Murphy.
Enter Jae-Gyun Hwang, human sugar-plum fairy.
Hwang is expected to be posted by the Lotte Giants on Wednesday. The five-time All-Star third baseman is looking to become the 58th* Korean player signed directly out of South Korea overall, the fifth Korean position player to ever make an MLB roster, and just the fourth KBO player to be posted and signed. MLB teams used to sign Korean players almost exclusively as amateurs—91 percent of all signees up to now have been amateurs; there aren’t rules against amateur signings like there are in Japan—but the recent successes of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jung-Ho Kang have seemed to make the league more open to players in the country’s professional ranks.
Teams in the Korean Baseball Organization are permitted to post just one player each in the winter. For the Lotte Giants, that player this offseason was supposed to be left fielder Ah-Seop Son. Alas, not a single MLB team put in a bid for Son this week because the market for corner outfielders is already ridiculously deep, opening the door for Hwang to be posted instead.
As Freese and Murphy are the only free agents remotely close to being starting third baseman material, there is a far greater likelihood someone will take a flyer on Hwang. He is far younger (28) than either Freese (33) or Murphy (31) and is likely to cost much less. It also doesn’t hurt that Hwang posted career offensive numbers in 2015, hitting .290/.350/.521 with 26 home runs and 41 doubles in 144 games. Those totals are inflated some* by the extreme run environment in Korea, but even if we adjust everything down 10-15% they still resemble Freese and Murphy’s numbers, which are good enough. There are no scouting reports to be found (in English, at least) on his defense, but what footage is available indicates a strong arm and good range.
MLB and KBO still operate under the “old” posting procedure, meaning once Hwang is officially made available on Wednesday any and all teams will have a week to submit a blind bid. Lotte will ultimately decide on the winning bid—i.e. the player’s “posting fee”—none of which counts against the luxury tax.
Just where on the spectrum Hwang’s posting fee will land is anyone’s guess. Since Hyun-Jin Ryu kicked things off with a $25 million fee in 2012 (because Dodgers), there have been winning bids of $2 million (Kwang-Hyun Kim), $5 million (Kang), and $12.8 million (Byung-Ho Park). I think we can all agree everyone was overly cautious with last year’s bids, but it’s also possible they’re overcorrecting now for Park since Kang turned out to be such a steal. Hwang’s power numbers in the KBO aren’t close to those of Kang or Park but he’s still a solid player and, as mentioned, the market for the hot corner is weak. If I had to guess, I’d put his winning bid at around $4M-$6M, but only with like 40% confidence.
No matter the cost, the Angels should make a big bid. As noted above, none of the posting fee money counts against the luxury tax. The only point at which Arte Moreno would have to fret about the tax, should they win the bid, would be during the club’s exclusive 30-day negotiating window with Hwang. Even then the odds are slim he makes a significant dent in their available funds. Kang was coming off an MVP season in 2014 and signed for just $11 million total over four years. Unless Park signs a Yasiel Puig-like contract with the Twins, there’s no reason to think the team that wins the bid for Hwang can’t sign him for Kang money or less.
There’s no guarantee Hwang will pan out, of course, but that’s a risk with every signing. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather take a flyer on a young-ish guy with upside who helps leave room for a big signing in LF than sign a thirtysomething guy past his peak who forces the team to settle for a mid-tier corner outfielder (and maybe costs a draft pick).
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*He’ll be 57th, fourth, and third, respectively, if Byung-Ho Park can’t agree to a contract with the Twins by December 8.
*NB: Eric Thames hit a Bondsian .381/.497/.790 with 47 homers in the same league this past season, earning MVP honors. Yes, that Eric Thames.
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