Earlier this week, the BBWAA announced their finalists for the major end of season awards. The Angels had some representation but, like most fan bases, Angels fans didn’t think there was enough Angels getting respect in the awards. Those fans are wrong. Allow me to explain
Jered Weaver will not be winning AL Cy Young
We know from the finalist list that he won’t win, but I’m highly doubtful he’ll even appear on a ballot.
“But, Garrett,” you say, “Jered led the AL in wins last season!”
“Moron,” I say, “I can’t believe you read this blog and think pitcher wins mean anything. Please go away forever.”
There are some Angels fans out there who actually think Weaver is still a Cy Young caliber pitcher because their impression of Weaver is frozen in a 2011 time capsule. Weaver stopped striking out a ton of guys a few years ago. His home run rate blew up this year. His walk rate spiked as well. Maybe you don’t even want to get that fancy, in which case, just look at his league average ERA. Name recognition can only take a guy so far, folks. An 86 MPH fastball takes you even less far.
Garrett Richards will not be winning AL Cy Young
Nor would he have if he had stayed healthy. Don’t get me wrong, Richards had an exceptional year and will likely get down ballot votes for the award. But he just isn’t in the class of Felix, Kluber and Sale. There is no shame in that. Those three were phenomenal this year.
As good as Richards was, he just wasn’t in the same class. His K/9, BB/9, FIP and ERA were all just a tier below the marks for those three. When you factor in the ballpark, his numbers are clearly a step below (check his ERA- and FIP- numbers, not that BBWAA voters will, but you should). Innings totals count a lot in the eyes of the voters too. Because he got hurt, his innings are obviously low, but even had he been healthy the full season, he would have been a few dozen innings shy of where Kluber and Felix ended up. Then again, Sale threw 11 more innings in the same number of starts, so it isn’t a huge discount on Richards’ performance.
Matt Shoemaker will not be winning the AL Rookie of the Year
Again, that’s no knock on him. Jose Abreu was a monster this year. He’ll probably be in the top five of MVP voting. Shoemaker was good, but he, nor any other AL rookie, is even on the same planet as Abreu. If Abreu doesn’t win unanimously, it will be an upset.
Having said all that, Shoemaker should actually consider himself lucky to finish in the top three. As much as I love Shoemaker, he was not better than Masahiro Tanaka. They both made 20 starts. Tanaka struck out more batters, walked fewer batters, had a better ERA, a better FIP, a MUCH better ERA- and a MUCH better FIP-. He was better than Shoemaker in every single way, except in Facial Hair Above Replacement.
But wait! There’s more! Tanaka was better than Shoemaker, but a case could be made that Collin McHugh was better than them both. He should’ve received bonus points on making five more starts alone, but he didn’t. His strikeout rate was on par with Tanaka and his ERA- and FIP- were just a hair worse. The only thing that McHugh did worse than either was walk a few more batters. Oh, and he was on the Astros. It sure seems like McHugh got overlooked because he was on a lousy team. If he was on Boston, he probably finishes second, easily.
So, yeah, don’t go getting all butt-hurt when Shoemaker finishes third because he’s overachieving.
Mike Scioscia will not be winning the AL Manager of the Year
This one I am the least certain about. He isn’t the favorite to win, but he has a reasonable chance. Ned Yost would normally be a shoe-in for guiding the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in nearly three decades, but the vote took place back before he repaired his reputation for #Yosting every single in-game decision. He might still win anyway because the BBWAA is like that.
What really hurts Scioscia is that he won the award back in 2009. Typically speaking, the BBWAA likes to vote for someone new, so a recent win for Sosh will work against him. Moreover, Showalter should have won back in 2012. He narrowly lost to Bob Melvin. The voters could make up for that by giving him the edge this time.
Both Showalter and Yost, managers of underdog teams that made good, simply have a much more compelling narrative than Scioscia finally getting his highly-touted roster to stop underachieving.
Mike Trout will not be winning the AL MVP
I kid. I kid. He’s expected to win in a landslide. Still, you have to be at least a little bit worried that he is once again going up a Detroit Tigers slugger as his main competition for the award. That typically doesn’t end well for him.
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