I’m going to make a dramatic statement. And it (mostly) has nothing to do with politics.
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Bernie Sanders has tapped into a piece of the American electorate than many doubted were out there en masse. Against long odds he has hung in the race for the Democratic party’s nomination for President of the United States far longer than most pundits expected.
Can he win? No.
At this point he’s running to keep his platform in the forefront of political groupthink. And to show respect for the passionate supporters he’s brought into the fold. Truth be told, Sanders, in his heart of hearts, probably never was 100% confident he could legit compete for the nomination.
But with every surge (like a surprise win in Michigan), he kept going. Sometimes the long shots cash.
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Chances are it’s not going to sit well. Especially in April.
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Last night in San Diego, the Cardinals lost. It wasn’t the worst loss in the history of losses, but it was endemic of how we assumed the Cardinals would lose in 2016 – paltry hitting (#1-4 in the line-up were 1-14) combined with uneven defense (an error and a missed tag at third) aided by less than brilliant pitching (Wainwright drops to 0-3).
The Padres were 6-10 heading into Friday night’s tilt. If you want to consider them an elite team, it’s a free world. But most people wouldn’t. The Cardinals now have an 8-8 record.
Meanwhile, three time zones away in Cincinnati, the Cubs were beating the Reds 8-1. The previous day they beat the same team 16-0. They now stand at 13-4 atop of the NL Central (and the Cardinals) by a full 5 games.
The Cubs don’t play a team with a winning record until the beginning of May.
It is now possible that the Cubs will be 15 games over .500 by the completion of the month. The Reds, Brewers and Braves are all teams directly ahead for the Cubs. You may remember that trio as the cannon fodder that the Cardinals have padded their current record against.
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The Cardinals might already be playing for 2nd place in the NL Central.
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Because of math, really.
The gloomy outlook comes down to math.
5 games isn’t an insurmountable mountain to climb. Especially in April. And for a team that has a history of winning like the Cardinals.
But the lead in the NL Central is more likely to be 6-7 games for the Cubs at the end of the current month. Could be more, could be less. But let’s run with that. We already saw their upcoming schedule and how they’re currently dismantling bad teams.
Assuming that the Cardinals and the Cubs play the rest of their schedule (besides each other) to a draw, that means the Cardinals would have to win 11 of the 15 remaining head-to-head games just to draw even.
So far, they’re 1-2. With all three games played at Busch Stadium.
Don’t like that route? I don’t blame you.
That means they’ve got to pick up an average of 1.5 games per month to draw even. If the Cubs play the remainder of the season at exactly .500, that would put them at 86 wins. At .600 that moves them to 100 wins.
Sigh.
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At this point, we’re really hanging our hats on history. Banking that the Cubs are going to eventually Cub.
Because if they don’t fall apart and just win a majority of their series from April on out… the math has already put the Cardinals in a position where they’ll need to go on some massive streaks just to draw even.
If we see Coach Mike show up at a post-game presser with Larry David, we’ll have an idea why.
Photo: Huffington Post
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