In just under a week, the Sabres will be on the clock at the 2016 draft, and this year sees them at a critical inflection point under Tim Murray. While the Sabres took a step in the right direction last year, they still finished well out of the playoff race. Murray has finished the easiest part – tearing down the roster, tanking, and picking Reinhart and Eichel – and now comes the hard part: becoming a perennial playoff contender. What he does in the upcoming draft will be crucial in making sure the rebuild reaches its promised fruition – think the Penguins and Blackhawks – instead of clunking out like – shudder – the Edmonton Oilers.
So the question becomes: what do the Sabres do at 8? Barring them trading the pick to get an established NHLer, or using it to move up or down in the draft, the Sabres will have some intriguing options when they’re called to the podium. I profiled a bunch of players before the lottery, and said that the team would be happy to get any one of those guys at 8. There is something to be said, though, about the team-building implications of whether they pick a forward or a defenseman with the number 8 pick.
The decision could show how Tim Murray views his organizational depth and how he looks at draft strategy. Some, like ESPN’s Corey Pronman, believe that forwards are inherently more valuable than defensemen; if it’s close between two prospects, go for the forward. If Murray plans on getting good soon, this could be his last chance to pick high up in the lottery and get another high-end forward for the future. The other school of thought would say that a defenseman is the Sabres’ biggest need, and they have the chance to get a very good one at 8.
The case for a defenseman seems simple enough. With the trade for the rights to Jimmy Vesey and, presumably, their subsequent signing of Vesey, the Sabres have partially filled in the need for a top 6 forward for the season (and upcoming seasons, as Vesey is only 23.) The biggest hole on the roster is a top 4 defenseman, preferably a left-handed player who can play with Rasmus Ristolainen. There are three left-handed defensemen at the top of this year’s draft – Jakob Chychrun, Olli Juolevi, and Mikhail Sergachyov, each of whom can claim to be top of the D class. At 8, the Sabres can simply pick their preferred guy and watch as he thrives next to Ristolainen for the next ten years.
But it’s not that simple. All three of the defensemen have their flaws, and it’s extremely optimistic to pencil them into a significant role on the blue-line next season. None of them are Aaron Ekblad or Seth Jones type players who are ready for primetime immediately. Realistically, each will need at least another year of seasoning in the minors before making the leap, and even then they’d have to be eased into a top-pairing role. Getting there is something of a big if; defensemen have more uncertain development paths than forwards, as defensemen need to develop physically as well as learn how to mentally play one of the hardest positions in sports – it can take years. The Sabres would still be left with a hole on the left side next season even if they drafted based on their biggest immediate need; they should look to free agency or a trade instead if possible.
I think The Sabres would be better served by taking a forward. This, of course, depends on who’s available, but for me, a player I rank above any of the three D will be there at 8. Forwards are somewhat safer picks than defensemen – their transition to the pro ranks is not as difficult. That’s not to say that forward picks never bust, but their chance of making a big impact are better than most defensemen.
Adding a high-end talent to the system would do wonders for the Sabres’ future outlook. If you look at recent contenders, they are built around elite forward groups and capable D groups. The Sabres could be compared to the Lightning or the Kings, who both used high draft picks on one defenseman (Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty) but otherwise rely on, you guessed it, top forwards.The Sabres drafting a forward this year could be a lot like the Lightning taking Jonathan Drouin three years ago – they had their guy in Hedman (like the Sabres with Ristolainen) and went for the elite talent instead of a defenseman (Seth Jones was taken with the next pick). Drouin was one of the key forces for the Lightning in getting to within a game of the Stanley Cup this year, even without Steven Stamkos. You can never have enough high-skill forward depth, especially on cheap, entry-level contracts.
If you’re still concerned about need, the Sabres prospect pool is arguably thinnest at forward, so it would fill a need, just not a need as immediate as the need for a pro-ready LHD. The Sabres have promising prospect D-men in Brendan Guhle, Will Borgen, and late season free agent signing Casey Nelson. Guhle could push for NHL time next season. At forward, the Sabres added Vesey to the stable, but behind him is very little in terms of top-end talent. Justin Bailey, Hudson Fasching, and Nicholas Baptiste, barring a developmental jump, look to be middle 6 players at best. If the Sabres stay at 8, they could take a player like Alexander Nylander, Tyson Jost, or Clayton Keller, all players who ooze skill and project to be fixtures in an NHL top 6.
In my ideal world, the Sabres take a forward at 8 and use their next couple of picks on defensemen – maybe even trading back up into the first round to grab a D-man who is slipping – building up their total prospect depth. While I think a forward is the way to go, taking any one of the defensemen wouldn’t be a terrible move; no one needs to have their FIRE MURRAY takes ready if he does. We’ll see what Murray has in store for the team on Friday night – whether he goes best player available, need, or trades the pick. Should be exciting either way.
BONUS: My updated Sabres pre-draft ranks, excluding Matthews / Laine / Pulju / Tkachuk / Dubois who will almost certainly be gone by 8:
- Alexander Nylander, W
- Clayton Keller, C
- Tyson Jost, C
- Olli Juolevi, D
- Mikhail Sergachyov, D
- Logan Brown, C
- Jakob Chychrun, D
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