Put this one in the “Good Omen” folder RT @girlymedic31979: Mother Nature telling us its going to be a great season!! pic.twitter.com/2453ViMHOF
— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) October 8, 2014
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The dawn of the 2014/15 Senators season is here and for better or worse, this is our team.
Gone are the free spending days when ownership would host a free concert and spend up to the upper reaches of the salary cap ceiling. Over the past few years, Eugene Melnyk has realized that he can cut costs and still field a competitive roster that can vie for the playoffs. It does not really matter that a lot of the team’s spending post 2007 served as an attempt to keep the core of the 2007 Stanley Cup Final team together and then when things went south and its farm system – bankrupted by a skeleton amateur scouting staff and years of neglect under John Muckler’s watch – failed to produce enough inexpensive talent to keep the window of Cup contention open just a little longer, management lavishly tried to patch its holes with ill-advised veteran signings.
Now that we’re seven years removed from that Cup Final, the Senators are 29th in spending on payroll. Only the lowly Calgary Flames spend less than Ottawa do and they’re in the early stages of a rebuild.
Despite the obvious fiscal constraints mandated by ownership, the Senators have remained relatively competitive and have even enjoyed some unexpected levels of success. This had led to a chorus of self-congratulation by management and ownership who have echoed the importance of “spending smartly” within the confines of a relatively small internal budget.
During this same period of time, there have been assurances made that when the circumstances are right and the Senators are competitive enough to warrant a move, management has ownership’s blessing to add to payroll. It all sounds great, but fans are still waiting for this to ring true.
Senators fans like to point to the additional revenues created by the new respective television deals and the organization’s repeated promises to spend when the time is right as reasons to loosen the purse strings. Moreover, unlike the aforementioned Calgary Flames, the Senators aren’t in the midst of a rebuild. They’re trying to clinch a postseason berth where once they’re in, “anything can happen”. So when history also shows a strong correlation between spending and winning, fans are left wondering what the Senators, a team that lives on the margins, is waiting for.
The end result is a climate in which throngs of Senators fans have criticized the organization for not spending and in turn, the organization has often responded defensively by downplaying the significance of spending – equating spending to spending stupidly.
The complicated part is that the Senators aren’t wrong for trying to be efficient with their money, but there’s a reasonable argument to be made that if the Senators have the green light to spend when the circumstances align, why can’t they spend if they spend smart?
In theory, the less money an organization spends to field a competitive roster, the more financial flexibility it will have acquire better (and assumedly more expensive) players, but unfortunately when it comes to spending, it’s not as simple as the Senators opening the purse and letting players take their money. Finding the right players at the right price point(s) and term isn’t that easy.
On the other hand, the Senators’ payroll is the second lowest in the league and with almost everyone on the roster signed to cost-efficient deals, one would assume that if the Senators were serious about building a contender, they would creatively find ways to improve their roster now. Keeping that in mind, you can’t blame some fans for feeling like we’ve returned to those Bryden era days when the team had one of the league’s smallest payrolls.
What we see might be all we get. As great as it was to enjoy a few seasons in which ownership threw its money around to negate the competitive advantage big market teams have, maybe the sad reality is that those freewheeling days are over and Ottawa’s back to operating a small market franchise that’s at a significant competitive disadvantage?
Having just signed Bobby Ryan to a seven-year $50.25 million extension, one would hope that the Senators have the financial wherewithal to continue to spend and surround him with better talent. In an interview on TSN 1200 this past week, Pierre McGuire looked at the Ryan signing and arrived at the conclusion that the Senators will soon become a cap team.
That’s a pretty big leap in logic, but the bottom line is that the Senators will need to continue pumping money into their player budget should their ballyhooed farm system fails to produce productive NHL players at a steady rate. Should that happen, the Senators will be presumably be stuck with the status quo – a competitive team that may flirt with a playoff position, but struggle to ever develop into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
Looking at the Ryan signing in a vacuum, the Senators have essentially given themselves a two to four year window of opportunity before fans can reasonably expect diminished returns and a decline in production. As one of my friends put it, “Ryan’s a good player who does everything on offence that teams pay market value for, but not enough of the underrated things that will help offset whatever drop in production he experiences moving forward.”
Even if you’re reading this and you’re one of those fans who thinks that Ryan’s not a cornerstone players for a small market franchise and feel that he’s more of a luxury item or very good complementary player in the same vein as a Thomas Vanek, and even though I’m also wary of the risks involved with paying a player from his 28 through 35 years of age seasons, you could not blame the Senators for signing Ryan on the principle of the optics alone. Having already lost Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson in consecutive offseasons, the Senators needed to send a message to its fans and players like Erik Karlsson.
Sure, make no mistake, the Senators painted themselves into this corner by acquiring Ryan and his two-year term in the first place, but there’s a reason why Eugene Melnyk awkwardly expressed thanks to Bobby Ryan for committing to the Senators in the long-term (even though it took $50 million from the organization to get it done). Ryan had the Senators over a barrel and Melnyk knew it.
Following an underwhelming 2013/14 season in which the Senators missed the playoffs, this offseason was clouded by more uncertainty than a John Muckler draft class, but fortunately, it’s all in the past now. And as the Senators are set to embark on an 82-game journey, the moments from hereon in will serve to give us a better understanding of what this team is and can be moving forward.
Here are some key storylines to follow for the upcoming 2014/15 Senators season:
1. Is the “old Paul” back?
Some of the feedback from players following last year’s disappointing season was that they felt that MacLean had changed his approach from previous years. MacLean himself has acknowledged in interviews that he made a conscious decision to switch things up in his third year behind the bench. Why he felt that change was necessary, we’ll never know, but for a team that is expected to vie for a playoff spot, there will be pressure on MacLean to fulfill those expectations. If he can’t, the writing is on the wall. MacLean will be the organization’s fall guy for not getting enough out of this budget team.
2. Marc Methot’s back and will Marc Methot be back?
A back injury has sidelined veteran defenceman Marc Methot for much of training camp and he failed to get into a preseason game. There is still no timeline for when he’ll return to the lineup or even to practice for that matter. With Methot slated to hit UFA this July and the Senators reportedly a year and millions apart on a new extension, there’s no guarantee that he’ll return – opening up the possibilities that the Senators: 1) could entertain trade offers for him to alleviate their roster situation; 2) re-sign him for less money because of his uncertain health situation; or 3) see his trade value diminish over the course of the season because he’ll be perceived as a rental player who has had some back issues.
Fortunately…
3. Organizational depth
The Senators are carrying a full 23-man roster to start the season that does not include the injured Methot. It’s a situation that has allowed the Senators to carry an extra forward up front affording the Senators a grace period to evaluate whether: a) Curtis Lazar can get the ice time and be productive in the nine-game sample size before they have to make a decision on whether to return him to junior or risk losing a year off his entry-level contract; or b) Mike Hoffman, underlying numbers aside, can produce consistently enough at the NHL level to warrant regular playing time.
Once Methot returns however, the Senators may be forced to make a decision on one of their forwards. Do they return Lazar to junior? Do they risk putting Hoffman through waivers and hope that he goes unclaimed? Do they try and trade one of their veteran forwards to alleviate their burden? Or does the organization look to shed Methot or another of its eight defencemen?
4. Analytics darlings ride the pine
Judging by the line combinations and defensive pairings from practice, the Senators will make Colin Greening a healthy scratch for the first game of his contract extension. While that decision isn’t much of a surprise, hockey analytic darlings like Erik Condra and Patrick Wiercioch will be joining Greening in the press box.
Since breaking into the league, Condra and Wiercioch have developed into puck possession savants. Regardless of what you think of their shortcomings as players, when they’ve been on the ice, the Senators have done a better job of driving the play towards the opposition’s net than vice versa.
Another concern stems from the fact that Colin Greening has had some modest NHL success piggybacking the production of noted offensive gurus like Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson. If he’s to draw back into the lineup, a left winger will have to come out and make room for him. In other words, expect Mike Hoffman, another young forward with great underlying numbers, to swap spots with Greening. Barf.
Considering his offensive limitations and the Senators’ depth on the wing, the absence of Condra is not as surprising as that of Wiercioch. The Senators’ blue line situation sans Methot is downright frightening. As a team that struggled to move the puck quickly from its back end, the Senators are willingly starting the season employing last year’s third pairing of Chris Phillips and Cody Ceci as the second pairing and Mark Borowiecki and Eric Gryba will be featured on the third pairing.
Coupled with Wiercioch’s point production on the power play and his ability to move the puck and help drive possession, one would assume there would be room for him on this blue line.
5. Will this defence be a tire fire?
After enjoying his first offseason in which he could properly train and prepare for the NHL season, I’m expecting Erik Karlsson to return his level of play to something that resembles his Norris Trophy winning 2011/12 form.
Like every season, attention will be focused as much on Karlsson’s production as it will on his play away from the puck. Hopefully time and whatever offseason training Karlsson performed will improve his strength and confidence in his surgically repaired Achilles tendon. If he maintain the production levels that he’s shown in the past, improves his play within his own end and can help lead the Senators back to the postseason, a return to Vegas for the NHL Award Show may be in his cards.
The Senators will need whatever growth they can get from Karlsson this season, because as I joked on Twitter. The blue line situation is akin to that television ad in which blindfolded people are led into a vehicle and asked to comment on the vehicle’s scent. Despite the presence of a bunch of smelly shit in the vehicle, we’re led to believe that its odor was masked by the use of some Febreze. Well, Erik Karlsson is the Ottawa Senators’ Febreze.
Fortunately, we’ve seen firsthand how Erik Karlsson can turn hot garbage into productive NHL players – case in point, just look at the contract that Filip Kuba signed with the Florida Panthers. This season, assuming that Methot stays out of the lineup for some time, Karlsson will be asked to help turn Jared Cowen into an effective first pairing defenceman. No small order.
Under the assumption that Methot would be healthy, it was originally anticipated that Cowen would form the team’s second pairing with Cody Ceci, but with Cowen now forced into top pairing minutes, Chris Phillips will try and turn back the clock and prove that he can be more than just a veteran presence inside that dressing room.
As much as the Senators season hinges on the growth and gains that Cowen and Karlsson provide, Ceci’s development as a player will something to monitor as well. With only 49 games of NHL experience under his belt, he made not be ready to take on the responsibility of playing top four minutes against higher levels of competition. According to the WarOnIce.com, only Patrick Wiercioch had a lower quality of competition rating than Ceci last season, but unlike Wiercioch, Ceci and Phillips didn’t exactly thrive together last season. How Ceci handles these added responsibilities while being anchored by Phillips early in the season could help the Senators avoid getting behind the eight ball early in the campaign.
Eric Gryba will be looking to build on a steady 2013/14 season. Like his defensive partner Mark Borowiecki, Gryba’s one of those safe floor, low ceiling types who plays the physical style of hockey that endears itself to many a fan. Unfortunately as low ceiling types who have difficulty moving the puck, there’s not a lot of upside here either and should either player struggle, it’ll be difficult to justify keeping Patrick Wiercioch out of the lineup. At the same time, if both players perform well, it could create a situation in which fans begin to wonder why the Senators bothered to re-sign Phillips and block the development of a younger and better alternative.
6. Discipline issues
As the team that led the NHL in taking the most minor penalties last season with 379, Paul MacLean stressed that an emphasis would be made for the team to play a more disciplined style.
So how do you cut down on taking so many penalties?
It’s simple: you promote Zack Smith to the third line, keep dressing Chris Neil and introduce Mark Borowiecki into the lineup.
Okay, so I’m being a bit facetious, but the Senators can do themselves a favour by playing a more structured style in their defensive end. Having a faster roster should also help, but too often when the Senators turned the puck over and start scrambling in their own end, the end result was the Senators winding up on the penalty kill or with the puck in their own end.
Speaking of the penalty kill, expect it the Senators to improve from last season’s 22nd ranked penalty kill success rate (80.9%). The signing of David Legwand should help, but any regression to the mean in Craig Anderson’s porous .842 save percentage while the Senators were shorthanded will help. Of the goalies who started in 30 or more games last season, only James Reimer (.841) and Evgeni Nabobok (.837) had worse save percentages.
7. Pressure to perform?
A healthy Bobby Ryan will be reunited with Clarke MacArthur and Kyle Turris on the Senators’ top line to start the season. Last year, the trio combined for 27 goals which ranked them as the eighth-most productive line in hockey last season.
In the absence of Jason Spezza, a lot of digital ink has been spent wondering whether this line was capable of playing and producing against the opposition’s best forwards and defencemen on a nightly basis. Even though the myth that they’ve never done this has been busted, there’s no question that they this trio will be leaned on heavily to replicate or even exceed the kind of numbers that they tallied a year ago – especially now that Ryan is armed with his new seven-year contract extension that fans will assuredly measure and judge his production against.
Fortunately, one-year ago, Ryan was tied for 28th in the NHL for points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time with 2.24 and from a goal production perspective, he’s tied for 42nd in goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 time with 0.96.
For this team to have any kind of success, it needs Ryan to re-establish himself as a 30+ goal scorer and it needs the kind of two-pay dominant puck possession skills that MacArthur and Turris demonstrated last season. If Ryan fails to reach that threshold, will he be prepared for the scrutiny and pressures that come with being in a Canadian market?
8. Always the understudy
Since winning the Calder Cup with the Binghamton Senators as a teenager in 2011, Robin Lehner was always viewed as the heir apparent to the number one starter’s job here in Ottawa. Now that it’s three years later, we’re still waiting for him to get his first real chance to get the keys to the car.
MacLean has promised that Lehner will get into more games, but with Craig Anderson being named the team’s number one goalie by Paul MacLean and after signing a three-year extension worth an average annual cap hit of $4.2 million, the Senators seem content to hold Lehner at bay for as long as they can.
9. The Spezza curse
In each of the past two years, a former Spezza left winger has signed a contract extension with the Senators only to move on from Spezza’s line the next season. Last summer it was Colin Greening, who was bumped to a line featuring Zack Smith and Chris Neil and this year, it’s Milan Michalek’s turn to step away from the Spezza magic.
Like Greening, there are serious red flags concerning Michalek’s ability to stay productive away from Jason, but to his credit, these underlying numbers are marginally better than Greening’s were at the time.
Nevertheless, if Michalek struggles to produce offensively away, he’ll be the next name in a list of expensive veterans that the Senators should have walked away from. For what it’s worth, Michalek signed a three-year extension that will pay him an average annual salary of $4 million.
10. Curtis Lazar
Ottawa, meet your shiny new object of affection. Don’t get too attached though, because like Mika Zibanejad before him, he may leave before he plays in his tenth NHL game – effectively knocking a year of eligibility off of his entry-level contract.
At 19 years old, tonight he will become just the 15th teenager to ever dress for the Senators as a rookie and with it, his career will instantly become better than Radek Hamr’s. Surprisingly, considering the amount of talent that came through Ottawa during the 1990’s, only two of these teenagers have ever gone on to score in the double-digits during their rookie season. Even more amazingly, Alexandre Daigle still holds the Senators record for most goals by a teenager in their rookie season with 20. Granted, he did it in 84 games and had Martin Havlat played in more than 73 in his rookie season, he surely would have bested that total.
It remains to be seen how many minutes the Senators are prepared to give Lazar and whether or not he’ll get any special teams ice time. Right now, he’s scheduled to start on the fourth line centering Mike Hoffman and Chris Neil, but that could be a temporary situation should he get his feet wet and play well or those around him struggle in their roles.
Whatever the case, Lazar’s reputation is something of lore. Not only does he work out with Shea Weber during the offseason, the only way this kid could use more intangibles was genetically spliced his DNA with parts from Shaun Van Allen and Randy Cunneyworth.
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